Market Milestones: The Market's Great Arbiter

[Image] Good morning ! What is happening my terrific and tremendous traders on this terrestrial sphere! The markets have been consolidating over the last week, but don’t for a second think things have been boring. We have seen rotation into the IWM, the QQQ with its biggest down day since the bear trap of April 25th, and the SPY closing at a new relative high on Thursday. AAPL also hit a brand new all-time high and the 3 trillion-dollar market cap level. Most of the big tech stocks are at a precarious level, far extended above their long-term averages. A break below Thursday’s candle could be a spicy short. However, the market seems to be waiting on the next Fed meeting before it makes any directional decisions. The Fed will release its highly anticipated rate decision on Wednesday, June 14th at 2:00PM Eastern. As per usual, this is the most important rate decision, until the next one. I remember the good ol’ days when FOMC meetings were not make or break days for the market, when Jay Powell was not the sole arbiter of whether or not American’s 401ks plunged or popped. One day, maybe a day in the not so distant future we will live in those times again, however that day is not today. The market is anticipating a pause in this aggressive rate hike campaign on Wednesday. If we don’t get a hike, that will be the first pause after 10 consecutive hikes! The market has the odds of a pause on Wednesday at 75% and the odds of a .25% hike at 25%. However, before you go and get too excited, the market thinks this is just a pause and that hikes will resume again in next month’s meeting. What I find very interesting in all of this, is the fact that the SPY is at the exact same level it was at before all 10 hikes. The SPY was at $430 in March of 2022, when the Fed funds rate was sitting at zero, and it closed at $429 on Thursday, when the Fed funds rate is sitting at 5.25%. In March of 2022 you could get 0.20% on a 4-week Treasury Bill and today you can get over 5%. The bond market looks to be pricing in a recession, but the equities market does not seem to be. Will that discrepancy sort itself out in the latter half of the year? Either way, if you have extra cash laying around that you don’t need for a month and don’t want to put it to work in stocks or other assets, 4-Week Treasury Bills could be a great place to park it for the time being. SPY Daily Chart [Image]( Today’s ETF of the week is Global X Uranium ETF (URA). If you pull up the URA chart and zoom out to the monthly, you would get the impression that Uranium was not needed by anyone, for anyone, ever. It went through approximately 4 half lives in 9 years bottoming out 95% down from its all time high. Since that time, it has recovered decently well and is up 200% from the 2020 low. It has found a solid support around the $19 level which has held since early 2021. It has been making lower highs for 2 years now but could possibly be poised for a break out. If URA can breakout and hold its downward trend line, it could be a nice bullish trade up to the $24 resistance. If it can break though the resistance at $24, the next target would be $28. If it does not break out and hold the upper trend line, look to get long at the $19 level, its worked the last 15 times. URA Daily Chart [Image]( Enjoy your weekend, Yates Craig, RLT & TPN Market Analyst Disclosure: You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We trade ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do your own research before buying any securities. Unable to view? Read it [online]( If you no longer wish to receive mail from us, you can [unsubscribe]( Sent from: Real Life Trading in Nashville TN 37221