How I Look at Crude Oil and Gasoline Markets

[] Why surpluses, and deficits mean more than you might think [] [] [] [] When you think about the crude oil and gasoline markets, there are a few fundamentals that really drive prices up or down. In my experience, one of the main forces behind these price swings is inventory levels — specifically, whether we’ve got a surplus or a deficit. Let's look at how these two scenarios play out and why they matter to anyone watching oil and gas prices. The Backbone of Pricing When there’s a surplus — meaning more crude oil in storage than demand calls for — prices tend to drop. It’s pretty basic supply and demand: if there’s too much supply and not enough demand, the market gets flooded, and prices fall to adjust. On the flip side, when we’re looking at a deficit, there’s less oil available, so prices rise as demand tries to catch up with that limited supply. Now, you might be wondering, “How does this translate into real numbers?” Let’s say we’ve got weekly or monthly inventory reports showing how much crude oil and gasoline are sitting in storage. Typically, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [releases a report each week]( on crude oil inventories. Traders watch these numbers closely because any significant increase or decrease compared to forecasts can set off price movements almost immediately. One recent example involved inventory data that came in lower than expected. When the market saw this deficit, prices jumped, and it wasn’t just a minor blip — it was enough to catch everyone’s attention. Why? Because a lower inventory signals a shortage, which ramps up demand and, as a result, prices. It’s like any scarce resource: if there’s not enough of it, people are willing to pay more. Why Does This Matter to Everyday Investors? If you’re wondering why any of this matters to you, it’s because crude oil prices have a ripple effect across the entire economy. When crude oil prices go up, sure you’ll notice it at the gas pump. But it doesn’t stop there, because rising oil prices can also impact a slew of industries from manufacturing to shipping, and even retail. Every business that depends on oil, directly or indirectly, feels the pinch when prices go up. And as a trader, these price swings create both risks and opportunities in related markets, from energy stocks to commodities and even the broad indexes. One Last Thing: How to Know if You’re Overpaying at the Pump But there’s more to it than just understanding inventory levels and price movements. Tomorrow, I’ll share a little trick I use to make sure I don’t pay a penny more than I have to for gas. I’ll share with you the formula I rely on, including how taxes come into play to help me figure out what fair gas prices really are. During the pandemic, finding a fair gas price was nearly impossible, but at least I knew where I stood. Stay tuned for those insights tomorrow! — Geof Smith P.S. Nate Tucci is going to be sharing one specific stock — plus how he plans to use it to target a huge return over the weekend just from a tiny move in the stock. [Register your spot for his FREE workshop.]( [] [] When you think about the crude oil and gasoline markets, there are a few fundamentals that really drive prices up or down. In my experience, one of the main forces behind these price swings is inventory levels — specifically, whether we’ve got a surplus or a deficit. Let's look at how these two scenarios play out and why they matter to anyone watching oil and gas prices. The Backbone of Pricing When there’s a surplus — meaning more crude oil in storage than demand calls for — prices tend to drop. It’s pretty basic supply and demand: if there’s too much supply and not enough demand, the market gets flooded, and prices fall to adjust. On the flip side, when we’re looking at a deficit, there’s less oil available, so prices rise as demand tries to catch up with that limited supply. Now, you might be wondering, “How does this translate into real numbers?” Let’s say we’ve got weekly or monthly inventory reports showing how much crude oil and gasoline are sitting in storage. Typically, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [releases a report each week]( on crude oil inventories. Traders watch these numbers closely because any significant increase or decrease compared to forecasts can set off price movements almost immediately. One recent example involved inventory data that came in lower than expected. When the market saw this deficit, prices jumped, and it wasn’t just a minor blip — it was enough to catch everyone’s attention. Why? Because a lower inventory signals a shortage, which ramps up demand and, as a result, prices. It’s like any scarce resource: if there’s not enough of it, people are willing to pay more. Why Does This Matter to Everyday Investors? If you’re wondering why any of this matters to you, it’s because crude oil prices have a ripple effect across the entire economy. When crude oil prices go up, sure you’ll notice it at the gas pump. But it doesn’t stop there, because rising oil prices can also impact a slew of industries from manufacturing to shipping, and even retail. Every business that depends on oil, directly or indirectly, feels the pinch when prices go up. And as a trader, these price swings create both risks and opportunities in related markets, from energy stocks to commodities and even the broad indexes. One Last Thing: How to Know if You’re Overpaying at the Pump But there’s more to it than just understanding inventory levels and price movements. Tomorrow, I’ll share a little trick I use to make sure I don’t pay a penny more than I have to for gas. I’ll share with you the formula I rely on, including how taxes come into play to help me figure out what fair gas prices really are. During the pandemic, finding a fair gas price was nearly impossible, but at least I knew where I stood. Stay tuned for those insights tomorrow! — Geof Smith P.S. Nate Tucci is going to be sharing one specific stock — plus how he plans to use it to target a huge return over the weekend just from a tiny move in the stock. [Register your spot for his FREE workshop.]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](