Earnings Are An Afterthought At This Point

[] all eyes are on the election and the Fed [] [] [] [] We’re smack in the middle of earnings season, but if you’re waiting for earnings to give the market a big push — it might be time to look elsewhere. Right now, there are two bigger forces at play: the upcoming election and the Fed’s position on interest rates. Earnings season is humming along, but honestly, it feels like an afterthought. With so much focus on the election and the Fed, the market’s reaction to earnings reports has been muted. Next week will be the real kicker as the two big events unfold, and the outcome could have a lot to say about where we go from here. The QQQ is Looking Strong Let’s look at the QQQ for a second. Despite the fact that I’ve heard some folks call it “lagging”, because unlike the other two major indexes, it hasn’t hit its peak from back in July yet — the numbers tell a different story. The QQQ is actually leading the charge this month, up 2%, while SPY is up just 1.5%. In comparison, DIA has barely moved at 0.1%, and even the small cap IWM is only up 0.7%. So when we look at the recent gains, the QQQ is holding strong — it even took the lead compared to other indexes. In terms of percentage gains since the August 5th bottom, QQQ is up a solid 18%, outpacing both the S&P (14%) and the Dow (9.8%). This might come as a surprise, especially since the QQQ took the biggest hit back in July when AI stocks sold off, and it hasn’t yet regained those previous highs. That dip in tech stocks is still a bit of a drag on the QQQ, but it’s making a solid comeback regardless. Will the Major Indexes Hold Steady? With the election and the Fed looming, it’s likely we’ll see the indexes in a holding pattern until there’s more clarity on what’s going on with those two big events. A big question here is when the election will be called — there’s talk that it might take days before we know the outcome. And let’s not forget the Fed’s upcoming decision on rates, due to be announced on November 7th, two days after Election Day. Between their hot start with a half-point rate cut in September and the mostly positive economic reports that have come in since then, the market is itching to see if the Fed’s in “rate cut mode” or not. Between these two major events, we’re unlikely to see the indexes move much until we’re past next week. If we get a fairly quick call on the election and once we get past the Fed’s call, then maybe we’ll see a clearer direction in markets. So, if you’re watching the market, keep an eye on these two key factors. The earnings reports may be rolling in, but this time around, I believe it’s the election and the Fed that have the final say on where things are headed. — Geof Smith P.S. Meanwhile, one thing that isn’t “on hold” is Gold. It’s been on a tear with no end in sight. [Here’s how I’m playing gold’s “acceleration cycles”]( without long term exposure to the yellow metal. [] [] We’re smack in the middle of earnings season, but if you’re waiting for earnings to give the market a big push — it might be time to look elsewhere. Right now, there are two bigger forces at play: the upcoming election and the Fed’s position on interest rates. Earnings season is humming along, but honestly, it feels like an afterthought. With so much focus on the election and the Fed, the market’s reaction to earnings reports has been muted. Next week will be the real kicker as the two big events unfold, and the outcome could have a lot to say about where we go from here. The QQQ is Looking Strong Let’s look at the QQQ for a second. Despite the fact that I’ve heard some folks call it “lagging”, because unlike the other two major indexes, it hasn’t hit its peak from back in July yet — the numbers tell a different story. The QQQ is actually leading the charge this month, up 2%, while SPY is up just 1.5%. In comparison, DIA has barely moved at 0.1%, and even the small cap IWM is only up 0.7%. So when we look at the recent gains, the QQQ is holding strong — it even took the lead compared to other indexes. In terms of percentage gains since the August 5th bottom, QQQ is up a solid 18%, outpacing both the S&P (14%) and the Dow (9.8%). This might come as a surprise, especially since the QQQ took the biggest hit back in July when AI stocks sold off, and it hasn’t yet regained those previous highs. That dip in tech stocks is still a bit of a drag on the QQQ, but it’s making a solid comeback regardless. Will the Major Indexes Hold Steady? With the election and the Fed looming, it’s likely we’ll see the indexes in a holding pattern until there’s more clarity on what’s going on with those two big events. A big question here is when the election will be called — there’s talk that it might take days before we know the outcome. And let’s not forget the Fed’s upcoming decision on rates, due to be announced on November 7th, two days after Election Day. Between their hot start with a half-point rate cut in September and the mostly positive economic reports that have come in since then, the market is itching to see if the Fed’s in “rate cut mode” or not. Between these two major events, we’re unlikely to see the indexes move much until we’re past next week. If we get a fairly quick call on the election and once we get past the Fed’s call, then maybe we’ll see a clearer direction in markets. So, if you’re watching the market, keep an eye on these two key factors. The earnings reports may be rolling in, but this time around, I believe it’s the election and the Fed that have the final say on where things are headed. — Geof Smith P.S. Meanwhile, one thing that isn’t “on hold” is Gold. It’s been on a tear with no end in sight. [Here’s how I’m playing gold’s “acceleration cycles”]( without long term exposure to the yellow metal. [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](