Looking for an excuse

[] I think we head lower until the election [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] SEPTEMBER 6, 2024 [] [] Hey Y’all, Traders are always “looking for an excuse.” When we say the markets are a battle between “bears” and “bulls,” I think it’s a misnomer. We talk about “bears” and “bulls” like it’s a fearful Michael Burry on one side playing tug-of-war with Warren Buffett on the other. The image invokes an intentional force of people pushing the market towards a goal, like Isaiah Likely grabbing a last-second touchdown before the markets close (except keeping his feet in bounds — no, I’m not bitter)... But I don’t think that’s it. Of course, Wall Street has a massive impact on the stock market. That’s a given. But the impact of retail traders and everyday investors should never be underestimated… Especially with the surge of interest we’ve seen in the stock market and in options trading in recent years. [] North of 40 million options trades are placed a day, and those aren’t all coming from Wall Street. The majority are coming from traders like you and me. And we’re all looking for an excuse… it just depends what “excuse” we’re looking for. [] [] Geof Smith’s #1 Play on THIS Asset… No one is talking about this element… but they should be… [Join Geof to find out why.]( [] [] The market is less a game of “tug of war,” with two equal teams trying to pull in opposite directions. I think it’s more like a game of Red Rover. There are two sides, bear and bull, and traders in the middle deciding which way to run. And traders are always looking for an excuse to run in one direction or the other. Right now, I think they’re looking for any excuse to sell. Because we’ve seen it over and over again… NVDA reports mind-blowing earnings and the market sells off… The jobs report looks ok but is a little disappointing, and stocks sell off… The market is a bloodbath this week, and there’s nothing really going on. The Fear/Greed index has moved decisively over to fear… [] And even though rate cuts are expected to start in less than two weeks, nobody seems to be super excited (as I mentioned [earlier this week](. So when does this turn around? Well, to quote O Brother, Where Art Thou: “it’s a fool who looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart.” But, if I had to stick my finger into the wind and guess, I don’t think this changes until the election. The one thing that could flip things is a bigger-than-expected rate cut. If Powell announces a .50% or better rate cut, I think that will shock the markets into making a move. But I don’t think a 0.25% cut will do much. I think that’s already long since priced in. If we do see a rate cut and the market is still dyspeptic, I don’t see it getting settled until the election, because I don’t see another event that can move people off of the “excuse to sell” attitude. Of course, I could be wrong. Markets are crazy. But right now, I’d expect sideways action to continue for a while. As for me, I plan to be sideways about 85% of this weekend as I lay on the couch and watch football. Hope you get to relax and enjoy it! To your prosperity, Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub [] [] [] SEPTEMBER 6, 2024 [] [] Hey Y’all, Traders are always “looking for an excuse.” When we say the markets are a battle between “bears” and “bulls,” I think it’s a misnomer. We talk about “bears” and “bulls” like it’s a fearful Michael Burry on one side playing tug-of-war with Warren Buffett on the other. The image invokes an intentional force of people pushing the market towards a goal, like Isaiah Likely grabbing a last-second touchdown before the markets close (except keeping his feet in bounds — no, I’m not bitter)... But I don’t think that’s it. Of course, Wall Street has a massive impact on the stock market. That’s a given. But the impact of retail traders and everyday investors should never be underestimated… Especially with the surge of interest we’ve seen in the stock market and in options trading in recent years. [] North of 40 million options trades are placed a day, and those aren’t all coming from Wall Street. The majority are coming from traders like you and me. And we’re all looking for an excuse… it just depends what “excuse” we’re looking for. [] [] Geof Smith’s #1 Play on THIS Asset… No one is talking about this element… but they should be… [Join Geof to find out why.]( [] [] The market is less a game of “tug of war,” with two equal teams trying to pull in opposite directions. I think it’s more like a game of Red Rover. There are two sides, bear and bull, and traders in the middle deciding which way to run. And traders are always looking for an excuse to run in one direction or the other. Right now, I think they’re looking for any excuse to sell. Because we’ve seen it over and over again… NVDA reports mind-blowing earnings and the market sells off… The jobs report looks ok but is a little disappointing, and stocks sell off… The market is a bloodbath this week, and there’s nothing really going on. The Fear/Greed index has moved decisively over to fear… [] And even though rate cuts are expected to start in less than two weeks, nobody seems to be super excited (as I mentioned [earlier this week](. So when does this turn around? Well, to quote O Brother, Where Art Thou: “it’s a fool who looks for logic in the chambers of the human heart.” But, if I had to stick my finger into the wind and guess, I don’t think this changes until the election. The one thing that could flip things is a bigger-than-expected rate cut. If Powell announces a .50% or better rate cut, I think that will shock the markets into making a move. But I don’t think a 0.25% cut will do much. I think that’s already long since priced in. If we do see a rate cut and the market is still dyspeptic, I don’t see it getting settled until the election, because I don’t see another event that can move people off of the “excuse to sell” attitude. Of course, I could be wrong. Markets are crazy. But right now, I’d expect sideways action to continue for a while. As for me, I plan to be sideways about 85% of this weekend as I lay on the couch and watch football. Hope you get to relax and enjoy it! To your prosperity, Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](