Montana fever

[] The swing state no one is talking about [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] SEPTEMBER 5, 2024 [] [] Hey y’all, I hope everyone tuned into the Publisher’s Roundtable this morning. (If not, [you can catch the replay here]( I had a ton of fun sitting down with Nate, Graham, Jack, and our new friend, Chris Pulver to talk about the markets. Specifically, I got to speak some on what I expected to come from the election. And I might write about this a few times in the coming week or two, but I think we’re in a really interesting spot. I’ve touched in the past on how I think the election won’t have much of an impact on Wall Street. Wall Street fears uncertainty. And there is no uncertainty in this race. These are the two most “known” commodities to run for the White House in a LONG time. We’ve got the incumbent Vice President running against the previous President, and Wall Street knows exactly what to expect from both of them. So I think the idea that there will be some big meltdown or melt up doesn’t seem too plausible to me. Unless… [] [] The #1-Ranked Stock Picker In North America according to Sum Zero… Has just pointed us to his most urgent recommendation! It’s a company he believes is positioned to thrive regardless of who takes the White House! [Click Here To Get The Pick Now!]( [] I think the one potential situation for a meltdown is if either party, but especially the Democrats, takes control of the White House, the House of Representatives, AND the Senate. Why are the Democrats more of a concern? Well, two reasons… The biggest one, to their credit, is that Democrats are far better organized and more cohesive as a party than Republicans. Remember when the GOP delivered a coup d’etat to their own Speaker of the House when they clearly had no plan whatsoever to replace him? Just because Matt Gaetz had a bee in his bonnet? (He presumably had a lot of hair gel in his bonnet as well)... [] Yeah… Republicans will need more than a slim majority to effectively govern in a transformative way. The other key issue is policy. While the extremes of both parties have hinted at some radical policies that don’t appeal to the majority of Americans, the cohesion of the Democrats make those extreme policies considerably more likely. If the Democrats do take control of the White House and Congress, they have hinted at wanting to make changes that fundamentally alter the structure of the American political system, up to and including [killing the filibuster, restructuring the Supreme Court]( or even adding states like Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico that will presumably be reliable Democratic voting blocs. Now, it’s possible that there’s more “bark” than “bite” here, and that the Democrats wouldn’t follow through on these policies if elected. But the fear is certainly there, especially among those to the right. On Wall Street, these are the kind of uncertainties that would likely cause consternation. Add to it Vice President Harris’s proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, which could only ever pass in a world where Democrats controlled Congress and the White House. That tax would be anathema to Wall Street investors. So, what are the odds of either side taking full control? The good news (for those that like gridlock) is that it’s probably unlikely. The Republicans have a very slim majority in the House of Representatives. Most projections right now have that remaining as a slim majority, though it’s very hard to project where that might end up. On the other hand, while the White House is hard to project, the momentum certainly seems to be on the side of the Democrats and Vice President Harris. But where I really think folks should focus is the Senate. Right now, the Senate projection looks like this: [] The map is very favorable for Republicans right now. But remember that if Democrats control the White House, 50 votes isn’t enough to stop anything. So there are a couple of critical states that could make or break things. Ohio is a pretty red state overall, but incumbent Sherrod Brown has served since 2007 and still seems to have a decent lead in the polling. But Montana is a different story. Jon Tester is the Democrat incumbent but he’s in a fight for his life against young Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy. Montana is a deeply red state and it will be incredibly hard for Tester to win a battle for his reelection with Trump on the ballot. [] If Sheehy wins, he is probably the 51st Republican, and the bulwark against any radical transformation some on the far Left might have in mind. So, in an interesting way, it’s not Pennsylvania, it’s not Wisconsin — it’s Montana that might have the biggest impact in the election, certainly on the stock market. And to me (warning: we’re now entering the “soap box” part of this article) that’s beautiful. That’s exactly how the American Constitution was designed. So that, at least at the ballot box, blue collar folks from Montana were just as important as white collar folks on Wall Street. I think that’s great. This will still be a very interesting election to watch in many ways. I’m sure this won’t be the last time I mention it. Hope the markets are treating you well today. To your prosperity, Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub [] [] [] SEPTEMBER 5, 2024 [] [] Hey y’all, I hope everyone tuned into the Publisher’s Roundtable this morning. (If not, [you can catch the replay here]( I had a ton of fun sitting down with Nate, Graham, Jack, and our new friend, Chris Pulver to talk about the markets. Specifically, I got to speak some on what I expected to come from the election. And I might write about this a few times in the coming week or two, but I think we’re in a really interesting spot. I’ve touched in the past on how I think the election won’t have much of an impact on Wall Street. Wall Street fears uncertainty. And there is no uncertainty in this race. These are the two most “known” commodities to run for the White House in a LONG time. We’ve got the incumbent Vice President running against the previous President, and Wall Street knows exactly what to expect from both of them. So I think the idea that there will be some big meltdown or melt up doesn’t seem too plausible to me. Unless… [] [] The #1-Ranked Stock Picker In North America according to Sum Zero… Has just pointed us to his most urgent recommendation! It’s a company he believes is positioned to thrive regardless of who takes the White House! [Click Here To Get The Pick Now!]( [] I think the one potential situation for a meltdown is if either party, but especially the Democrats, takes control of the White House, the House of Representatives, AND the Senate. Why are the Democrats more of a concern? Well, two reasons… The biggest one, to their credit, is that Democrats are far better organized and more cohesive as a party than Republicans. Remember when the GOP delivered a coup d’etat to their own Speaker of the House when they clearly had no plan whatsoever to replace him? Just because Matt Gaetz had a bee in his bonnet? (He presumably had a lot of hair gel in his bonnet as well)... [] Yeah… Republicans will need more than a slim majority to effectively govern in a transformative way. The other key issue is policy. While the extremes of both parties have hinted at some radical policies that don’t appeal to the majority of Americans, the cohesion of the Democrats make those extreme policies considerably more likely. If the Democrats do take control of the White House and Congress, they have hinted at wanting to make changes that fundamentally alter the structure of the American political system, up to and including [killing the filibuster, restructuring the Supreme Court]( or even adding states like Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico that will presumably be reliable Democratic voting blocs. Now, it’s possible that there’s more “bark” than “bite” here, and that the Democrats wouldn’t follow through on these policies if elected. But the fear is certainly there, especially among those to the right. On Wall Street, these are the kind of uncertainties that would likely cause consternation. Add to it Vice President Harris’s proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, which could only ever pass in a world where Democrats controlled Congress and the White House. That tax would be anathema to Wall Street investors. So, what are the odds of either side taking full control? The good news (for those that like gridlock) is that it’s probably unlikely. The Republicans have a very slim majority in the House of Representatives. Most projections right now have that remaining as a slim majority, though it’s very hard to project where that might end up. On the other hand, while the White House is hard to project, the momentum certainly seems to be on the side of the Democrats and Vice President Harris. But where I really think folks should focus is the Senate. Right now, the Senate projection looks like this: [] The map is very favorable for Republicans right now. But remember that if Democrats control the White House, 50 votes isn’t enough to stop anything. So there are a couple of critical states that could make or break things. Ohio is a pretty red state overall, but incumbent Sherrod Brown has served since 2007 and still seems to have a decent lead in the polling. But Montana is a different story. Jon Tester is the Democrat incumbent but he’s in a fight for his life against young Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy. Montana is a deeply red state and it will be incredibly hard for Tester to win a battle for his reelection with Trump on the ballot. [] If Sheehy wins, he is probably the 51st Republican, and the bulwark against any radical transformation some on the far Left might have in mind. So, in an interesting way, it’s not Pennsylvania, it’s not Wisconsin — it’s Montana that might have the biggest impact in the election, certainly on the stock market. And to me (warning: we’re now entering the “soap box” part of this article) that’s beautiful. That’s exactly how the American Constitution was designed. So that, at least at the ballot box, blue collar folks from Montana were just as important as white collar folks on Wall Street. I think that’s great. This will still be a very interesting election to watch in many ways. I’m sure this won’t be the last time I mention it. Hope the markets are treating you well today. To your prosperity, Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](