July’s Inflation Data Is In

[] In what is yet another bullish signal for the stock market, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation came in at 2.9% this morning. [] [] [] July’s Inflation Data Is In In what is yet another bullish signal for the stock market, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation came in at 2.9% this morning. This is the first time since 2021 that inflation has fallen below the 3% threshold… [] Today’s inflation report also came in below expectations. Both the Fed and Wall Street were expecting CPI data to come in at 3%. So, a 2.9% reading was quite a welcome surprise. I’ve been predicting a bullish runup leading up to the election in November and a clean inflation report helps to smooth the path towards that after the recent market corrections. Now, in fairness, I don’t actually put a lot of stock into these kinds of reports and I don’t even think the data is very reliable, but it at least gives a boost to sentiment which is what we’re going to need to lift this market up over the next 90 days. Of course, the item on the agenda that will give us a real boost (which almost feels inevitable now) is a rate cut that we should see during the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed has been dangling the carrot of a potential cut for almost a year now so you’d think all the bullishness would be squeezed out by the false starts, but I’m guessing we’ll get a bullish surge through the stock market if/when it becomes a reality. Now, again, my belief is that this is still very much a “smoke and mirrors” economy… I don’t actually believe – rate cut or not – that the stock market should be heading toward all time highs. I strongly anticipate that after November’s election, we will see a deeper correction. The market has been on a torrid pace since 2020, making the 2022 “bear market” look like a blip on the radar. [] We’ve never fully accounted for the trillions of dollars of unearned money clogging up the system (though I do believe interest rate hikes have some impact in cleaning that out)… But the disconnect of the massively bullish market and the way most Americans are experiencing the economy at the grassroots level is real, and it’s been building up more and more tension. We saw a hint of how fast things can fall with the recent short-term correction you can see on the right edge of the chart above… But I think that’s just a small sample of the kind of market cap we likely need to erase to get back to any semblance of a true reflection of the economic reality we’re in. The government will ultimately try its hardest to keep the market up leading into the election. But after that happens it's going to be very hands-off for a few months up until the inauguration (and even beyond January, the Fed won’t be incentivized to “ramp things up” any time soon). So my expectation is a significant correction in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year. Obviously, that’s a fairly wide range so I won’t actually make any moves until we get some confirmation of that activity. And, in the same way, I am looking to play the momentum we’re getting now until proven otherwise. — Nate Tucci P.S. After several weeks of being on the sidelines, my flagship strategy, Automated Options, looks primed for another opportunity on Friday! [Make sure you’re IN before the next trade!]( [] July’s Inflation Data Is In In what is yet another bullish signal for the stock market, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation came in at 2.9% this morning. This is the first time since 2021 that inflation has fallen below the 3% threshold… [] Today’s inflation report also came in below expectations. Both the Fed and Wall Street were expecting CPI data to come in at 3%. So, a 2.9% reading was quite a welcome surprise. I’ve been predicting a bullish runup leading up to the election in November and a clean inflation report helps to smooth the path towards that after the recent market corrections. Now, in fairness, I don’t actually put a lot of stock into these kinds of reports and I don’t even think the data is very reliable, but it at least gives a boost to sentiment which is what we’re going to need to lift this market up over the next 90 days. Of course, the item on the agenda that will give us a real boost (which almost feels inevitable now) is a rate cut that we should see during the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed has been dangling the carrot of a potential cut for almost a year now so you’d think all the bullishness would be squeezed out by the false starts, but I’m guessing we’ll get a bullish surge through the stock market if/when it becomes a reality. Now, again, my belief is that this is still very much a “smoke and mirrors” economy… I don’t actually believe – rate cut or not – that the stock market should be heading toward all time highs. I strongly anticipate that after November’s election, we will see a deeper correction. The market has been on a torrid pace since 2020, making the 2022 “bear market” look like a blip on the radar. [] We’ve never fully accounted for the trillions of dollars of unearned money clogging up the system (though I do believe interest rate hikes have some impact in cleaning that out)… But the disconnect of the massively bullish market and the way most Americans are experiencing the economy at the grassroots level is real, and it’s been building up more and more tension. We saw a hint of how fast things can fall with the recent short-term correction you can see on the right edge of the chart above… But I think that’s just a small sample of the kind of market cap we likely need to erase to get back to any semblance of a true reflection of the economic reality we’re in. The government will ultimately try its hardest to keep the market up leading into the election. But after that happens it's going to be very hands-off for a few months up until the inauguration (and even beyond January, the Fed won’t be incentivized to “ramp things up” any time soon). So my expectation is a significant correction in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year. Obviously, that’s a fairly wide range so I won’t actually make any moves until we get some confirmation of that activity. And, in the same way, I am looking to play the momentum we’re getting now until proven otherwise. — Nate Tucci P.S. After several weeks of being on the sidelines, my flagship strategy, Automated Options, looks primed for another opportunity on Friday! [Make sure you’re IN before the next trade!]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](