recession looms. what the data says to do

Ran an analysis on 23.2k subscription & SaaS companies in ProfitWell Benchmarks, here's what I found: 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCp3q3nJV1-WJV7CgWl7V359533TzJZDW3WN9yZ3CGGk6W26KRhM2lQl_jVLPQMk4nwHklW749bN83sMvmfW1Vx2H63CQgWNN105BfkHN15fW61Z8pC3fFsVhN1ZPLQzd0R7bW1twykh2N1n9tW1sBbY42hMPJ1W4Zq3tg7whKFpW7jBsrt5CYSbCN1g6yFF80TjgW5zF14z72K5YNW5Q8dKV5MB8SKW40SF6z4mlFXbV1g2XC1LdvWHW1zSclX2BptcDW1HKwlM1L0L5WVHfywM8LYmsFW3SD4L54G1ZlrV7-vBt4gHPkWW1LM8YR7-WZJj36lm1 HEAR PAST EPISODES 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTDh3q3pBV1-WJV7CgZNgW3X69Xs7t4vy6W2_3hLS3w5hqgW7791wv1vVgvfW4wvfTQ7JM8YqW2VM2tH6jjWstW7w1TrJ5wt2dkW4JpvL7899NNJW3MS8QD4JfsYyW4r1WJh2MJJgxW5_cVr77MCvyfN5mb6HpZNvgqW9cC_xv5hvBRPW8NMjWT8cMLGDW2-TqhQ593FbPW18rFKQ8-8wQjW79NhWl4HbPDSVf3fZl5bKsP7W3h2WYF6TqlB9W1YCy2W499y2yW1LW9Nn3CSK_VW5Gdhnr5HcZ9gW7xfQyw53-PB7W1Hb-zB3rHxh8W3HJWt-7R892YW2zmZPX3mt4XZW2GQjhV2Q65MnW27fZQc1xKP_PW7Xhc8k8c9W5KW19J0fV8vg-SbW4hS36_8JD_Pq386-1 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTBc5nCTJV3Zsc37CgPX_W4fqZd93FDX4xW4c3m158FJcqTW1Nbyn74G47cMW3JvrFJ5P939RW3QjB-y3qrN_yW7dbgpk3x2-vVW4rwQWp5Dh22HW1Lsgqm58KcsrW56kKSF6J4x_cN7H0Pfz-VRh_W2gQ-ts9fjj8VW2VmrFM8xc9Z0W2KjRZs14kh-sW1vJwGk2GfQ8NW40VHtd91Z-7jW5l3QGw1t19-cW2LZHBT17TC_tW8-W7S37VbFcRW5PBhxj6TVM7CW41GrcP8SJ_vCW8H9zDF7FBzTGW4Dr2xm6qT0FzW1RRS_W5Ky2mfW83M7XR72h8rHV-6rgd3jN--4W975Jq78rl4JwW3wHg3B8GHVwlW2hX9Fn34SWd0V6FzPX3hvgR1V37L-54xDWXZVRHMqx7kNNcfW3dklb62HC7TH31LJ1 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgRHjW8nWdzj4lkprhW32Sd-n5PcDspW5pLMRz6sprSqW2j1HzQ51VFgMV4sTPz4vYc24VQLtLf8NfVSBW89z0QC6Bzz3xW5tvjWD9gyLKfW1thDqv6CVLNfW8wxd8k2JXbjnW73WvPJ36bm-pW3J2Qm77dpmc6W1GcBGc4rJPqGW99zbSn32sPXBW3w3XWk7XvbMtW4bbY9Q40Ph4nW2Qy_Hz5htgh_W7PC2NK7h5wS3W4_dBvN6Yc7tZW68fF1W7WNT0-Vd9-Tl7k_jtwW4LvXf_8YswxKW2pk67k5KCBRRW8vs4vK1-M5lsW7gt3NW1fxVr6W9jZSS56HzKhnW514-8c5G3GmNW52mlRP6Bhdj73dJp1 A recession looms On this episode of the B-Side, Patrick discusses how to prepare for a recession and what the data from 23.2k subscription and SaaS companies shows. [Read on ProfitWell Recur](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgJjpW6VK6Vk2dj-m2W5-MQlG2l3-L1W61zndq6hzmqCW2mYrBR1YX84DW3PrtTn2qGvSwW99tGCM6s-hgwW90H1Gx914DyMW7FbXnk54ZLtbW6Knb2b1YvFR2VQRpPh2q8WSYW7FPSwS5s5WmVVMXz4730BNFLW8YrsyT76W_rsW29rP0b87HwTVN3ClPxrZMX_LW5vxX1s5k0CCjW1tlYp72h_gC1W2LD26B2RZbWdW6pJT-113DD-qW322v3g2LlHT_W5Ftcx41XyWBsW7f0Y1b9bQ93jW3MhB9r5CChn6VnF6T37gXzvcVdvs8H70wC0pW6Qktjb53JTxhW1Ylyg03Hmb9jW2QN6YC2hND7T32T81) [img_4_10_sep_2020] Episode field notes [img_5_10_sep_2020] There's a recession looming. There’s lots of generic advice out there, especially in the past month. So I ran an analysis on 23.2k subscription and SaaS companies. Things will mostly be fine, but two data points are pretty scary (especially in consumer and soon B2B). Let's jump in. Consumer markets Let's talk about consumer markets first (you'll see why later). The graph below is a breakdown of growth in subscription ecommerce companies, which tend to be more market sensitive. We definitely saw the "market accelerate ten years through COVID" thanks to economic stimulus payments or "stimmies." There's a problem though: 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgBL0W7_GCHG14Sz9BW77T5TX7N0xwpW82jrcX5D79jhW5fF5df5-8xQ1W53K-RW3-hqkDW3BGprx98c3lPW301QRS1s5Dy0VV6k912qxPPyN4F8q2gT3qf4W2BXjWv1WbVKrN8jvxPXFY_sbW5SdPb162V0wLW6q9pWl5C-8D-W31HC__3CDtlRW2McQ8m4ShVnKW4JMmv24CKJxYW2lbKr_41vWMlW1bRFvp2z6T0DW1qSmfR2G0vgsW5FP8q07NJzx_W640tB38Zqgb-W1_6hWq3tSp8cW8Gg8mY3WX-N7W9jlr4X95Rvl1W8YRH916zGbRCW7rJHsQ740Qk-W9dLky4408TXQW7hQ5Z82rNdwK3hM91 As COVID subsides, consumable products are slowing. Those nice-to-have products are going away without stimulus. "The pancaking" is happening. As a consumer debt bubble looms with people trying to maintain a "stimmy" lifestyle, growth stays flat at best. And at worst... 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgB_7W8PxfCx48r_kzVymQ3y5MK8dGW7ByS_Q427dvDW8Pksst63Rcc3W2mypP73_l9w1W84Wx6K3nPTzlW5shPSJ2LnZM5W1nx1rW8cmqtDVF2tdH46QLyCW96NLXV3dDgHpVPR_Xy3dXJG3W6YYp-R6QjcTdW6-m7KX8RhNbRW6qjPDS1qR4DRW1cGkXq8Tk6LdW7s0_JY7p0D7BW649ZmT1b_8TDW872zY71mhc2TW3q7W9h6q06KzW4slRKG3G3ZwlW7WdzHn1HvP8tN69Bqm7PXK16M-hMlK_tLGpW4GZVs-34f7D2W90J_4q47GHS1W5SBLKJ75hs1XW8VD3yB9fRyYkW4_gCVB6sn8-935sP1 The worst case is contraction. Churn is up: - 22% in subscription boxes - 16% in subscribe and save - 11% in consumer SaaS New sales are staying consistent, but we're not replacing lost customers fast enough! B2B SaaS B2B SaaS is where things get interesting. Look at this insane market growth graph. There's a reason B2B SaaS gets higher multiples. It's a march of growth. COVID was basically a three-week stall similar to a Christmas stall. But B2B SaaS has a lurking problem similar to that of subscription ecommerce: 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgRpNW8nL2Dt4MDm6rW89HTbr7vdSNvW7wPxdf1nRqyNV-z6rm3gWnt7W440QP32rfwrRN6m9KRfsbFdCW6xPgyY5hGg0JW2SPjBj81gykzW7y2L_76s_1pTW6DtLNv8fcr6MW61gYsK7y-Td3W8TC43s84bjwZN2CrYb81y7C_W7H2M1M3xTBP7W1Lmz7T7D4MsLW1PR-mq7Yc0lhW5N75gw3TsCBzVHBhqW6yrPRlW2Q9f856wGTV4W4qF_vF5hGWb1W5LNLM92Zsh8DW4jmRCw6JL29vW3_gg2373m0tVW7Y5xJT2Z6STvW66stmS7fH07dW1v0S837zQkPvW5r15nB1ZTbVdW5WyR-53wrky43nc31 Churn and downgrades. While growth is still happening and new sales are staying the same, churn is starting to flood the market. Here's what that looks like (the lines on the graph are going lower): 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgR14W2sgQbg21b4fXW3xLG3C3Yqk40W9dZcS55LqbxGW7BtcmC6TxP8hW8R-X4n7D9Td4W1kWNQ31Ch7NJW5WV2l95chpvdN1WWjptvNKNxVlCmmL4cPMt2VT4xW-299_H1W1lgnVT1-mmH9W4CWX_W95WwVkW41d35-70-qS_W4mQM2S3lkt69W2jZdSr252nlVW6cFJYl4BrvpxW4GZw-J4p2FK5W4YyD423ZzYl4W7wb31R4lDXS_W6_7Dn316LfNLVxBL8y7b_lzcN8F9hzbMGrzRW6lF8vn6xxQSLW4YnSQ124xSbCW4_DvmL3cpzwXN1hjGLgHqTwrW67qyhf8mRlPnW7RPbSz5BQKVJ3bDl1 Month-over-month growth rates are slowing — and it's going to get worse in B2B. Recessions hit the consumer world first and then B2B. Here's a breakdown of B2B and B2C SaaS monthly growth rates (inside ProfitWell Benchmarks): 113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTC_3q3phV1-WJV7CgJWLVMdXlC89275RW2tXh417hL5GYW6Xr7j-3mBPT5N7gKsRG1LnyYW3WTVVl70p70vW8wjNRw7mqMSRW3_6cCC56nHNbW3dFxsQ7-0z9NW7n7MzG5nB6DSW2QsL5H99vv88W8hZJjW8KfMJvW2Zfm1Y8fg7p7W6DPM6D1wvCx8W3pH12P2FvSS1V50PT06gbgLqV-snfT742z-qW8x9gfW9381Z9N42Ncqyc9kryV8Yjv86-JQ_0W7HwhVz7Dbl-zW8znM2F7kDcXnV2gp0j3-B6vHW5lB_mJ15RFmcW2pybJB7Sm5qlW6HQbwp2159DxW1P9h5h5hG-npVRQBrw5R4tKkW8JzQry437zjz37MY1 So, what should you do? You need to focus on two things: - Survival - Lifetime value (LTV). Keep in mind that people are giving advice to cut and shore up runway not because the problem exists at this moment, but because a problem WILL exist. This data is an early warning system. Survival Efficient spend is key to coming out the other side: - Audit all expenses. We're all paying for things we shouldn't. - Make sure you're default alive with at least 10% buffer if you're bootstrapped, or an 18-24 month runway if venture-backed. - Re-evaluate all non-core projects. It's hard — you need to make long-term bets, but still scrutinize everything. Lifetime value (LTV) This is an opportunity to shore up the fundamentals. Subscription growth is pretty basic: acquire a customer that's optimally monetized and sticks around for a long time. You're likely focusing on "acquire," but the rest of that sentence is pretty important too. So let's talk monetization and retention: Monetization Segmentation and expansion revenue are crucial, so have a solid strategy in place: - Focus on cross-sells — existing happy customers consistently buy more in recessions. - Create an add-on, especially if you don't have cross-sells. Priority support is easy money. - Raise prices — if your NPS > 20, raise prices starting in September (after the balance sheet audits are done now). - Evaluate segments ASAP (as[Mark Roberge](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCp3q3nJV1-WJV7CgLzWW8BrZmd1FFwYWN6bsQLsRKk94VqM-g46M7VYjW5LQ5RX8_rpVQW7Qxtc_6CtwLqW15-QFl2XrZtLW1MV16K646zVLT9BvB6gg3tmW2PLdhp8Rzj-qW68TQLr8KF-1jN1WSD7Xs0ky1W7snrHp8ggdNjW5v34SN746-PkW8HJRbt72lKxmN7nrmhQJkkxhW5j6SjF2TxccHW6mfPY344VdSnVxn3sF6xrYXJW3XV9Ds8v4GchVtPp__5VQzGgW68Lwh26ZlbSgN3rVHXjhjwQ-W58spq24nfgzMW3pDfp56H2zxN3jNt1) recommends). Pull spend and/or sales headcount off of segments hit hardest by the recession. Build your pipeline in others. - Localize to stronger economies. Make sure pricing is region specific. - Cut discounts by half — most are too high already. Retention I mentioned earlier that most will likely focus on acquisition. Ultimately though, it comes down to how many of your customers you can hang onto. - Shore up credit card failures. Your recovery rate is likely half what it should be. - Implement cancellation flows. Offer salvage offers, maintenance plans, etc. - Term optimization. Do a promotion to get monthly customers on quarterly/annual plans. - Reactivation campaigns. Have them going 60, 120, and 180 days after a customer cancels. Use small offers to entice them back. Whoever ends with the most users, will win When it comes to big bets, I learned an intense amount from what HubSpot and Salesforce did during COVID. They appeared to double down on a few things: - Community. Both INCREASED events and connections. Everyone will struggle with something — they worked to give a forum for those struggles. - More for free. Both invested more in free products and gave away more value for free. - Experience. Both implemented numerous design shifts to improve customer experience. These all had one main thought: Whoever ends this with the most users, will win. To me, that should be your mantra. Recessions end. They're a pain, but it shows us who's going to execute and who's not. There's a reason people say "great companies are made in a recession." [1-Click Subscribe to Protect the Hustle](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCJ3q3n_V1-WJV7CgWt7W1fCNX_4PNZBnW7nz60N72t6tgVx36MT2_9lSNW7qRRQf951qlYW1m1l605gGzKCW8ynhRp2YFShMW2-4YBq6FN5QcW91Y0fT8ST2_1W54CgBg1dMYcgW6GTW7C7SzPCpW5zXPm997Tz8qMbLHZVWdZKHW8qsz4f1W1R5GV_8Wf76vcSvPW1gYmJd6wGW0YW8MHw7T62C0c9W4x86gf308x7WW4wHKnR9jrhP_W1cY7Pj36ww_vW1H5msx4fNww4W8V-9Fx1ryyqcW5_1JKL92LKWyW2---nt23c092W6MRBJY4q2J3TW2jwH4h40KKFhW4vJRdB91JTl63cRb1) Do us a favor? Part of the way we measure success is by seeing if our content is shareable. If you got value from this episode and write up, would you click below to share with your network? Helps us get this into the hands of as many people as possible. 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Connect with us: [ico_fb_10_sep_2020](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCJ3q3n_V1-WJV7CgYDhW45Stkx8kh_ydN4nbgV5FbHt5W8H44Ty89pM37W3XXWHB7zF63LW704R0f7lvzKlW2TJpyj4l9MXyW81SRhY55f-qVW4Hyghv2JdsC0W7l32Fd9cFbg-W4TjdB44_1N79N6BjXl9hDYV7W2xkfsc997TBcW6mRPq55q7Nm-W5qVS846pkk1ZN613YzBFtyRgW4y2pF43HS3lfW6prdLT6Vj574F4ls1qHcjpnW77mxTN6DPZSyW2d-w8121TTCgW8KZKtw8y76rQW35BzwG1Nnlx4W16cysZ30wM5CVlgd2M9gZF5FW3fw2121Cr9DHW68sTb95gXySQ3kNl1) [ico_tw_10_sep_2020](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCp3q3nJV1-WJV7CgMkJW4bG69Y2RBHy5W8k92L27SsfbCW1SdM9q55G-yDMZ3cLQdy3JgW2dcm8k35yPqqVjrl0P5js-SPN11zv2zZZRSrW5mb5Cd8qQ_PlW5T0GzX2bQB4CW1BHGrl1GZKXXW8Q0-Zt7qW_2NW8Tqx0G3ZXXHvW3xncz71ydkXsW2dM62c4d4TpHW7Hmptk76Jgt9V_3NK78BQpTSW6zRfX76t6gWdW3nL1Sy1kVtzGW7v2tPh40_yCvW8LJplr6PkHKXW2Q9-WS3wcLkpW4P0C8Z8vnTKLW6Wj-VV714ftHW8Wfvk57mpc153fL31) [ico_in_10_sep_2020](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCJ3q3n_V1-WJV7CgSJ-VR3xQQ8Xktf-W1nggPx2_Vy-wW3-Jy_b8MJbNXW6kp0k87-0P6QN3CWTxSvnW-3W3ty2zq24-yxkW2VrRsK2p60j9W15cQvj3vMfJSN5KPRzJV4TbcW6Tvmkq8b3KWwVHDy5m6KVBwpW9klcGQ37QqsfW57Hp0L3Y_WqGW5tKqj38XwnlyMylN9Q3-0X3N27QH-GcVLRJW4Ls6Kf3NFH4CW5sMz0s3hVXxPW84FmSz6w8tq7W9jbVRS6TS0rPN4Jk3BVbKD36W7WRHqw1g4kBfW6H2_cy8N7N4MW8bbD883Lbv6FW79_-5T64HrHsW6S73t92nZRcM3dfT1) [ico_ln_10_sep_2020](113/bNfN04/VWbjb054dYzLW46qwV62chGmWW2NZxg54LFkBrN35KTCJ3q3n_V1-WJV7CgNv0W6SX5wv1Ttk3qW2K44xs32n_N_W3lW4-T6xR13dW4g2dl_5zdYntW7mZHSR2M9hg5MF-PzQGN6pJW1fghSN759TtzW2MS3dz8nvx0mW8QmyGX6V5wWnW5HYGWP81fvM8W2gGDhh3ScRVDW6wbkr642RvyKMx6VhtlVZLPW6sYspP6-x6q3W7XYzPH5x8wzgW3CTCf65QcGx7N5DcQ_pmzKJSW70FczW59qH60W4VR11q2mWBGcN3Lxb-Zf5n0_W3r7WH18hyPkrW6w7t4t3cqgNbW8Ttzbx9gtn_TW96rCqp7kVyjvW6zB7xF79bxQZW21ZfjP2Rwnj63lrK1) This message was sent to [{EMAIL}](#) Never want to get data or updates from ProfitWell again? 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