Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for September 25, 2023

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading. VIDEO TRANSCRIPT Hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of September 25th, 2023. S&P 500 Index CASH Now, to get started this week, we’ll do an accurate view of the mark your tier. Again, we really do want to stay away from the rolling performance model and stick with our current monthly, weekly, yearly opening prices. So we can see that the SPYs or the S&P 500, which is the same thing, turned bearish a week ago Friday. We’ve closed down below the VantagePoint TCross Long, but more specifically as per last week’s outlook, we could not hold above 4450 to keep that bullish momentum to the upside and subsequently have fallen about 3% on the particular week. Now, the indicators from VantagePoint warned about that. On Friday’s update, we can see our neural index strength breaking down below the zero line, the predicted differences breaking below the zero line, and of course losing or gaining momentum to the downside with the predicted RSI. So it’s very important that we measure the markets from the current monthly opening, the current weekly opening, and the current quarter and yearly opening, so we know exactly where we are. Now in that discussion with the SPYs, again, we’re looking for the SPYs potentially, or I’m looking for them to turn around probably around mid-October. What we do often see at month end flows like we did in August, you can see that that also tricked the retail trader into buying this and holding this only for it to drop substantially with that seasonal pattern at the beginning of September. Now, the seasonality in stocks, usually they turn when the dollar turns after the US fiscal fourth quarter ends, which is October the 1st. So I am looking for some strength in the equity markets, but not until we get potentially real strength until we get past the middle of October. The indicators here for next week, the for you stock traders, there is some sign of life here with a reverse check mark on that neural index, which is usually a warning sign that we’re going to see some sort of corrective move, higher or lower. In this case, it’s higher. But again, when we do a comparative analysis to this and we look at Tesla, which was discussed last week, that Tesla was unable to break above the quarterly opening price at the … And again, using the accurate third quarter pricing, that price coming in at or about 276 on Tesla, we couldn’t maintain that. And subsequently we’ve dropped almost 10% in less than a week. The trader gets stuck because again, that rolling performance, random five days, random 30 days often leads to pricing that is not accurate because again, when we look at the S&P 500 more closely, we can actually see that there hasn’t been bullish momentum in this particular market since late July. August was a terrible month. But the main thing we need to understand is the high positive correlation that the Tesla has to the S&P 500. So again, the condition to buy this, we would need Tesla stock breaking above the quarterly opening price, but we would also need the S&P 500, as I stated, holding above its quarterly opening price. And again, as soon as the S&P went down, it pulled Tesla down with it. But this is all basically related to the dollar index, the strength in the dollar. U.S. Dollar Index Now the Fed is coming off hawkish again, but in my respectful opinion only, he’s got this wrong, and Morgan Stanley, a few of them are coming out now saying, “No, we fully expect a cut by March.” I’m in that camp too. I don’t believe that the hike, any further hikes are warranted, but I don’t work for the Fed. But as we can see, as the dollar moves higher, it pushes the stock markets down, it pushes the stock indexes down. So right now, the dollar, again, if we look at the seasonal pattern of this, the dollar usually starts to lose ground in about the second week of October. So I don’t think that anything has changed here. Last year with those excessive rate hikes, the dollar still didn’t make any gains past October. So I would look for that seasonal pattern to repeat itself and the dollar start to soften a little bit. But for now, we still have that dollar cycle at the beginning of the month. I’m not expecting any significant weakness in the dollar until after October the 8th, but that could come early. So we look to the VantagePoint indicators to see if we can find that. And right now they’re still bullish, but again, our TCross Long is 104.78. The further we move away from this price, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace to it. But as you can see, using that accurate quarterly opening, monthly opening, yearly opening price, they’re all stacked below creating that support level. But I do anticipate, again, some dollar weakness starting in mid-October. Gold Now when we look at gold prices here, gold again, another strong week for gold, as was suggested in last week’s weekly outlook. And again, any third party comments that come in for other services are automatically deleted by VantagePoint. Once again, I focus primarily on intermarket correlations, seasonal patterns, predictive indicators, and again, I don’t get involved with some of the other lagging methodologies. But right now we can see we have a reverse check mark here, the same one that I’ve shown you on the S&P 500 suggesting we’re getting ready to move higher. But when we look at this from last week, when we go back five days from the start of the week, once again, wherever gold goes from here, again, this is a weekly presentation, guys, not a long-term presentation. Each week the markets are updated. So again, all the indicators in the VantagePoint software last week said that gold was going higher, which it did, and subsequently we still remain flat. But what I’ll point out here is that even with that hawkish Fed, it brought gold back slightly from the high of 1947, but a very minor retracement, and we’re still sitting here for the most part. We have no downward momentum here on the predicted RSI, the predicted differences. Now, the neural index strength, which takes the correlation of 31 other markets in its forecast. But to give you a better idea, in the science of intermarket analysis, what we want to look at is the correlations both positively and inversely that drive gold. Not silly wave theories, this kind of stuff. This is 1800s, early 1900s technology, you can compliment it intermarket analysis with your wave, but it’s certainly not a standalone system. When we look at this right now, this is what’s driving gold. If we look at gold on a yearly basis, these are all the positive correlations. If I look at it on the quarter, you can see that we get a different set of intermarket correlations. So again, the point of these presentations each week is to assist traders understanding how important what these correlations are and that they are actually what drives the market. The last thing we want to be doing is tracking impulse buying and selling. That’s the retail trader. We saw what happened with that, with the SPYs, the S&P 500 and Tesla. Without the proper setup, you could get a misleading price. And again, what I’ve said with gold is gold over the last 10 years was absolutely bearish between September 28th and the end of the year, but over the last five years, it’s been up 80% of the time with a 21.54% annualized returns. So again, when we look at statistically, gold has bottomed out between September and October, and it’s risen from that price. And when we look closer at this, these intermarket correlations drive that. So whether you’re a gold buyer or seller, that’s your call, but again, the science of this does not support gold shorts this particular month, even with again, a very, very hawkish Fed still is not convincing people to leave that gold trade, not as of yet. And again, a very strong buy this past. Week while you’re sitting there waiting to short this thing, you could be making money on the long side. That’s the whole point. So these intermarket correlations are measured on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly basis. So if gold does go down, then this gives the opportunity to buy something like US Singapore dollar, HF Sinclair, RBOB gasoline, heating oil. But these inverse correlations tell us that we’re at the end of the cycle on heating oil. We’re likely going to see that rise. So again, when we look at this for now, we have good, strong verified support at the 1900 mark. And again, from a factual standpoint, what I’ve stated, gold usually bottoms out at the end of September. The month of September is a terrible month to buy gold, but October, November, December are some of the best months. So again, we’re always looking forward. And should the dollar seasonality remain the same, then we would see gold move higher, not lower by probably as early as September the 28th, but I think it will be closer to the October 10th mark. So hopefully that clears some of the things up with gold. But again, any third party comments pointing towards other services will be immediately deleted. Bitcoin Now, when we look at Bitcoin, again, Bitcoin coming into a strong seasonal pattern in the early parts second week of October. So we want to watch this one very closely. We’re holding above that very important monthly opening price at 26,013. Keep a very close eye on this. I imagine they’re going to try one more move to flush the markets out like what they’ve done with the S&P, the SPYs, some of your stocks this past week. They’re likely going to try this with Bitcoin too, but be on the hunt here, guys, for potential longs. A very strong seasonal pattern in Bitcoin forms, usually in the first or second week in October, and at some years as early as September the 28th at the end of that US fiscal fourth quarter. Again, we must use some fundamentals when we’re looking at our trading, but for now, the indicators on VantagePoint are sideways, but they are showing no significant downward momentum. Crude Oil Now, when we look at light sweet crude oil for next week, once again, this verified resistance high. We’ve had a big spike up this past week, but we’re not getting a lot. When we look at it from a weekly opening, an accurate weekly opening, not a random five days here, guys, 90.41, not a lot of buyers up here. We’re closing the week here at 90.03, and again, a very mixed bag here with the indicators, but not a lot of downward momentum at this particular time, but I believe we will see that come mid-October. But for now, it’s still mildly bullish, but I would be very surprised if we can get backup over this newly formed verified resistance high, which is coming in at 92.43. I think potentially there’s a very good short here. We just have to be cautious. Again, we don’t want to fight the trend. We’re above the yearly, the monthly opening price and firmly above the quarterly at 70.37. So when we look at it from the standpoint, while it is surprising oil has gone up at this time of year by the charts and by the VantagePoint software, this call started back here. I don’t like to do this because this is an outlook, not a recap of something that already happened. But you can see where this started, which was the beginning of September. So that strengthened the dollar where they keep saying the inverse correlation between oil and the dollar, I would respectfully submit the two have been highly correlated in the month of September. So again, that theory one up, one down, I’m not really buying into that guys because you can see the oil and the dollar index are both moving up and down actually together. So any crack in the dam in oil could actually be the confirmation we need that the dollar is getting ready to sell off in that first second week of October. Euro versus U.S. Dollar So when we look at, again, some of our main Forex pairs, the Euro really taken a beating again this past week on this dollar strength. But the probability that we’re getting near the end of this based around that dollar seasonal pattern, most traders don’t see that seasonal coming around that mid to early October point. And now I’m not saying the Euro’s going to go into a new trend, but I’m saying that predominantly the dollar does not do well in its fiscal first quarter, which is October through January 1. So again, right now we’ve got a verified support low 1.0632. Watch out for one more move to the downside that flushes this all out, anybody who’s long on the Euro and then we go higher. That’s just a personal side note that I can warn you that I’ve seen many times at this time of year where the Euro looks.. [Image] Here are Some More Investing Tips and Resources. Enjoy! Sponsored [16 Trading Titans. One Game-Changing Book. Unlock Their Secrets in “Masterminds of the Markets” Click here to get your FREE PLAYBOOK now!]( [Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for September 25, 2023]( Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading. VIDEO TRANSCRIPT Hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of September 25th, 2023. S&P 500 Index CASH Now, to get started this week, we’ll do an accurate view of the mark your tier. Again, we really do want to stay away from the rolling performance model and stick with our current monthly, weekly, yearly opening prices. So we can see that the SPYs or the S&P 500, which is the same thing, turned bearish a week ago Friday. We’ve closed down below the VantagePoint TCross Long, but more specifically as per last week’s outlook, we could not hold above 4450 to keep that bullish momentum to the upside and subsequently have fallen about 3% on the particular week. Now, the indicators from VantagePoint warned about that. On Friday’s update, we can see our neural index strength breaking down below the zero line, the predicted differences breaking below the zero line, and of course losing or gaining momentum to the downside with the predicted RSI. So it’s very important that we measure the markets from the current monthly opening, the current weekly opening, and the current quarter and yearly opening, so we know exactly where we are. Now in that discussion with the SPYs, again, we’re looking for the SPYs potentially, or I’m looking for them to turn around probably around mid-October. What we do often see at month end flows like we did in August, you can see that that also tricked the retail trader into buying this and holding this only for it to drop substantially with that seasonal pattern at the beginning of September. Now, the seasonality in stocks, usually they turn when the dollar turns after the US fiscal fourth quarter ends, which is October the 1st. So I am looking for some strength in the equity markets, but not until we get potentially real strength until we get past the middle of October. The indicators here for next week, the for you stock traders, there is some sign of life here with a reverse check mark on that neural index, which is usually a warning sign that we’re going to see some sort of corrective move, higher or lower. In this case, it’s higher. But again, when we do a comparative analysis to this and we look at Tesla, which was discussed last week, that Tesla was unable to break above the quarterly opening price at the … And again, using the accurate third quarter pricing, that price coming in at or about 276 on Tesla, we couldn’t maintain that. And subsequently we’ve dropped almost 10% in less than a week. The trader gets stuck because again, that rolling performance, random five days, random 30 days often leads to pricing that is not accurate because again, when we look at the S&P 500 more closely, we can actually see that there hasn’t been bullish momentum in this particular market since late July. August was a terrible month. But the main thing we need to understand is the high positive correlation that the Tesla has to the S&P 500. So again, the condition to buy this, we would need Tesla stock breaking above the quarterly opening price, but we would also need the S&P 500, as I stated, holding above its quarterly opening price. And again, as soon as the S&P went down, it pulled Tesla down with it. But this is all basically related to the dollar index, the strength in the dollar. U.S. Dollar Index Now the Fed is coming off hawkish again, but in my respectful opinion only, he’s got this wrong, and Morgan Stanley, a few of them are coming out now saying, “No, we fully expect a cut by March.” I’m in that camp too. I don’t believe that the hike, any further hikes are warranted, but I don’t work for the Fed. But as we can see, as the dollar moves higher, it pushes the stock markets down, it pushes the stock indexes down. So right now, the dollar, again, if we look at the seasonal pattern of this, the dollar usually starts to lose ground in about the second week of October. So I don’t think that anything has changed here. Last year with those excessive rate hikes, the dollar still didn’t make any gains past October. So I would look for that seasonal pattern to repeat itself and the dollar start to soften a little bit. But for now, we still have that dollar cycle at the beginning of the month. I’m not expecting any significant weakness in the dollar until after October the 8th, but that could come early. So we look to the VantagePoint indicators to see if we can find that. And right now they’re still bullish, but again, our TCross Long is 104.78. The further we move away from this price, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace to it. But as you can see, using that accurate quarterly opening, monthly opening, yearly opening price, they’re all stacked below creating that support level. But I do anticipate, again, some dollar weakness starting in mid-October. Gold Now when we look at gold prices here, gold again, another strong week for gold, as was suggested in last week’s weekly outlook. And again, any third party comments that come in for other services are automatically deleted by VantagePoint. Once again, I focus primarily on intermarket correlations, seasonal patterns, predictive indicators, and again, I don’t get involved with some of the other lagging methodologies. But right now we can see we have a reverse check mark here, the same one that I’ve shown you on the S&P 500 suggesting we’re getting ready to move higher. But when we look at this from last week, when we go back five days from the start of the week, once again, wherever gold goes from here, again, this is a weekly presentation, guys, not a long-term presentation. Each week the markets are updated. So again, all the indicators in the VantagePoint software last week said that gold was going higher, which it did, and subsequently we still remain flat. But what I’ll point out here is that even with that hawkish Fed, it brought gold back slightly from the high of 1947, but a very minor retracement, and we’re still sitting here for the most part. We have no downward momentum here on the predicted RSI, the predicted differences. Now, the neural index strength, which takes the correlation of 31 other markets in its forecast. But to give you a better idea, in the science of intermarket analysis, what we want to look at is the correlations both positively and inversely that drive gold. Not silly wave theories, this kind of stuff. This is 1800s, early 1900s technology, you can compliment it intermarket analysis with your wave, but it’s certainly not a standalone system. When we look at this right now, this is what’s driving gold. If we look at gold on a yearly basis, these are all the positive correlations. If I look at it on the quarter, you can see that we get a different set of intermarket correlations. So again, the point of these presentations each week is to assist traders understanding how important what these correlations are and that they are actually what drives the market. The last thing we want to be doing is tracking impulse buying and selling. That’s the retail trader. We saw what happened with that, with the SPYs, the S&P 500 and Tesla. Without the proper setup, you could get a misleading price. And again, what I’ve said with gold is gold over the last 10 years was absolutely bearish between September 28th and the end of the year, but over the last five years, it’s been up 80% of the time with a 21.54% annualized returns. So again, when we look at statistically, gold has bottomed out between September and October, and it’s risen from that price. And when we look closer at this, these intermarket correlations drive that. So whether you’re a gold buyer or seller, that’s your call, but again, the science of this does not support gold shorts this particular month, even with again, a very, very hawkish Fed still is not convincing people to leave that gold trade, not as of yet. And again, a very strong buy this past. Week while you’re sitting there waiting to short this thing, you could be making money on the long side. That’s the whole point. So these intermarket correlations are measured on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly basis. So if gold does go down, then this gives the opportunity to buy something like US Singapore dollar, HF Sinclair, RBOB gasoline, heating oil. But these inverse correlations tell us that we’re at the end of the cycle on heating oil. We’re likely going to see that rise. So again, when we look at this for now, we have good, strong verified support at the 1900 mark. And again, from a factual standpoint, what I’ve stated, gold usually bottoms out at the end of September. The month of September is a terrible month to buy gold, but October, November, December are some of the best months. So again, we’re always looking forward. And should the dollar seasonality remain the same, then we would see gold move higher, not lower by probably as early as September the 28th, but I think it will be closer to the October 10th mark. So hopefully that clears some of the things up with gold. But again, any third party comments pointing towards other services will be immediately deleted. Bitcoin Now, when we look at Bitcoin, again, Bitcoin coming into a strong seasonal pattern in the early parts second week of October. So we want to watch this one very closely. We’re holding above that very important monthly opening price at 26,013. Keep a very close eye on this. I imagine they’re going to try one more move to flush the markets out like what they’ve done with the S&P, the SPYs, some of your stocks this past week. They’re likely going to try this with Bitcoin too, but be on the hunt here, guys, for potential longs. A very strong seasonal pattern in Bitcoin forms, usually in the first or second week in October, and at some years as early as September the 28th at the end of that US fiscal fourth quarter. Again, we must use some fundamentals when we’re looking at our trading, but for now, the indicators on VantagePoint are sideways, but they are showing no significant downward momentum. Crude Oil Now, when we look at light sweet crude oil for next week, once again, this verified resistance high. We’ve had a big spike up this past week, but we’re not getting a lot. When we look at it from a weekly opening, an accurate weekly opening, not a random five days here, guys, 90.41, not a lot of buyers up here. We’re closing the week here at 90.03, and again, a very mixed bag here with the indicators, but not a lot of downward momentum at this particular time, but I believe we will see that come mid-October. But for now, it’s still mildly bullish, but I would be very surprised if we can get backup over this newly formed verified resistance high, which is coming in at 92.43. I think potentially there’s a very good short here. We just have to be cautious. Again, we don’t want to fight the trend. We’re above the yearly, the monthly opening price and firmly above the quarterly at 70.37. So when we look at it from the standpoint, while it is surprising oil has gone up at this time of year by the charts and by the VantagePoint software, this call started back here. I don’t like to do this because this is an outlook, not a recap of something that already happened. But you can see where this started, which was the beginning of September. So that strengthened the dollar where they keep saying the inverse correlation between oil and the dollar, I would respectfully submit the two have been highly correlated in the month of September. So again, that theory one up, one down, I’m not really buying into that guys because you can see the oil and the dollar index are both moving up and down actually together. So any crack in the dam in oil could actually be the confirmation we need that the dollar is getting ready to sell off in that first second week of October. Euro versus U.S. Dollar So when we look at, again, some of our main Forex pairs, the Euro really taken a beating again this past week on this dollar strength. But the probability that we’re getting near the end of this based around that dollar seasonal pattern, most traders don’t see that seasonal coming around that mid to early October point. And now I’m not saying the Euro’s going to go into a new trend, but I’m saying that predominantly the dollar does not do well in its fiscal first quarter, which is October through January 1. So again, right now we’ve got a verified support low 1.0632. Watch out for one more move to the downside that flushes this all out, anybody who’s long on the Euro and then we go higher. That’s just a personal side note that I can warn you that I’ve seen many times at this time of year where the Euro looks.. 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