Vantagepoint Stock of the Week iRobot ($IRBT) and Exelixis ($EXEL)

This week’s stock analysis is a follow up on iRobot ($IRBT and a full analysis on EXELIXIS ($EXEL) Traditionally our format for the Stock Study of the Week is we pick one stock that the a.i. has been focusing on and show traders how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and neural networks can greatly improve traders’ decision-making processes. Back on June 23rd, we featured iRobot (IRBT). In that analysis we pointed out two especially important details, iRobot was struggling financially in spite of the fact that Amazon had recently made a $61 buyout offer for the company. In that analysis we warned: “The narrative which has driven $IRBT over the past week is that AMAZON is seeking to acquire the company at $61.00 per share. That has been responsible for the sudden price increase based upon the announcement that regulators in the United Kingdom gave the deal a stamp of approval. From a pure valuation perspective, $IRBT offers a very confusing perspective. They had a horrible 2022 and have only had 1 quarter of positive growth over the past year. Revenue fell by 45% over the most recent quarter and the company posted an operating loss of $81 million. For traders who think the Amazon acquisition will occur there could still be a 20% upside. However, should the deal fall through for any reason the risk is greater than 20%. Since there is not broad analyst coverage on the stock current and future price movements will be very much dictated on whether Amazon proceeds with the deal. The company’s next earnings date is August 4th, 2023. $IRBT is currently trading at 1.3 times sales. Amazon may look at a better valuation since their initial offer was 10 months ago and the company has not done well financially since then.” Since that writing $IRBT had rallied to a high of $51.49 and has since fallen to a low of $36.65. Amazon has revised their acquisition offer to $51.75. The entire deal is still under scrutiny from regulators. A deep dive into iRobot’s financials reveals a concerning trajectory. Over the past three fiscal years, the company has seen a decline in both revenue and margins. While 2020 showed promise, by 2022, the company’s revenues had dipped, and gross profit margins shrunk from 47% to a mere 29.5%. Operating expenses, on the other hand, have been on the rise, leading to a net loss for the company. Once boasting a net income of nearly $150 million, iRobot now faces a loss nearing $300 million. The company’s cash flow paints a similar picture. Once positive, the cash from operations has dwindled, leaving iRobot with negative free cash flow. This lack of liquidity has forced the company to take on debt of $200 million for the first time, a move that coincided with Amazon’s reduced acquisition offer. The potential Amazon acquisition offers a glimmer of hope for investors. If the deal goes through at the proposed $51.75 per share, it could mean a 30-35% gain for those holding iRobot stocks. However, this potential reward doesn’t come without risks. Regulatory hurdles, especially from antitrust entities, could jeopardize the deal. Moreover, the competitive landscape of the robot vacuum market, despite iRobot’s recognizable Roomba brand, means the company’s recovery is uncertain without Amazon’s backing. In conclusion, while the Amazon acquisition offers a potential lifeline for iRobot, the company’s declining financial health poses significant risks for investors. As the regulatory scrutiny intensifies, stakeholders are left to weigh the potential rewards against the inherent risks of this merger. As we often discuss in our stock of the week analysis, we rely on artificial intelligence for guidance. Currently, the Vantagepoint A.i. Triple Cross is beginning to form an UP forecast within the next few days. As short-term traders we have $IRBT firmly on our trading radar and are looking at short-term swing trading opportunities. Here is the chart of the TRIPLE Cross indicator. iRobot ($IRBT) with VantagePoint A.I. Triple Cross Indicator Our initial suggestion to Power Traders is to review the $IRBT stock Study from 6/23/23 and continue to use the a.i. for guidance. Based upon recent market volatility $IRBT offers weekly volatility of roughly 6% and the stock will present numerous short-term trading setups. Analysts are convinced that regulators will decide the fate of $IRBT before December 2023. The lowered buyout price is $51.75 per share. $IRBT has acquired $200 million in financing from the Carlisle Group. The stock is trading roughly 33% under the expected buyout price. Our enthusiasm rests not on the prospective buyout but on the fact that the a.i. is setting up another short-term UP forecast after a substantial decline. ============================================================================================================================= EXELIXIS Stock Study Analysis Let’s dive into Exelixis, Inc. It’s a company that, at its core, is all about battling the big ‘C’ – cancer. With its razor-sharp focus on the discovery, development, and delivery of innovative cancer drugs in America, Exelixis is playing its part in this relentless fight. Here’s the financial breakdown: Most of the company’s dollar signs come from its pharmaceutical arm, especially those drugs fighting against cancer. It’s not small potatoes either. With a hefty market cap north of $7 billion, it’s clear this California-based outfit has made its mark since its birth in 1994, thanks to its founder Dr. George A. Scangos. But, and there’s always a ‘but’ in business, Exelixis is not alone on this battlefield. The biotech world is teeming with heavy hitters, names you know like Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Roche, all vying for a piece of the oncology pie. The stakes? High. The competition? Fierce. What intrigues me is this ever-evolving dance between biotech and oncology. The rapid strides in research are opening doors every day, and companies like Exelixis are poised to step through pioneering treatments that could fill gaps in our medical arsenal. Think about it: Innovative therapies? Check. Collaborative efforts with big pharma to expedite progress? Double check. But let me tell you, as much as this landscape brims with potential, it’s also riddled with pitfalls. The biotech world is not for the faint-hearted. Skyrocketing R&D costs, regulatory minefields, cutthroat competition – it’s all par for the course. And always, always that lurking question: Will the next drug pass the muster of clinical trials or face the dreaded FDA rejection? All eyes are on Exelixis’ headline drugs: CABOMETYX, raking in an impressive $403.3 million annually, and COMETRIQ, pulling its weight with $25.3 million. But in this industry, it’s not just about the here and now. It’s about the next breakthrough, the next partnership, the next risk. So, where does that leave us? Watching, waiting, and always, always rooting for those who are pushing boundaries in the pursuit of a cancer-free world. Stay tuned, folks. The story of Exelixis is one we’ll be tracking closely. In this weekly stock study, we will look at and analyze the following indicators and metrics which are our guidelines to dictate our behavior regarding any stock analysis. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates 52-week high and low boundaries Vantagepoint A.I. Triple Cross Indicator The Best Case – Worst Case Scenarios Neural Network Forecast Daily Range Forecast Intermarket Analysis Our trading suggestion We don’t base our trading decisions on things like earnings or fundamental cash flow valuations. However, we do look at them to better understand the financial landscape that a company is operating under. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates The 16 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Exelixis Inc have a median target of $25.50, with a high estimate of $32.00 and a low estimate of $18.00. The median estimate represents a +13.36% increase from the last price of $22.50. What is fascinating for us to acknowledge is the VARIANCE range between the most bullish and bearish analysts on Wall Street. We calculate this number by subtracting the low forecast ($18) from the high forecast (432) and dividing that value by the current price of $22.50. This variance is 62.22% and it tells us what the expected volatility is based upon Wall Street Analysts. 52-Week High and Low Boundaries Over the past year we have seen Exelixis ($EXEL) trade as low as $14.87 and as high as $22.64. This tells us that the annual trading range is $7.77. We would also like to divide the annual trading range of $7.77 into the current price of $22.50 to get a broad-based estimate of trading volatility. This tells us that the volatility of Exelixis ($EXEL) over the past year has been 34.5%. This value also provides us with a basic estimate in letting us know that if the future is like the recent past, it would be normal for $$IRBT to trade in a range that is 34.5% higher and/or lower than the current price over the next year. More importantly we have two important estimates of volatility from our analysis so far. Wall Street analysts tell us that they expect a variance of 62.2% around the current price of $22.50. Meanwhile the price history of the last year tells us that the statistical volatility of the past year is 34.5%. We would expect that over the next 12 months the volatility will be between these two levels. Here is the annual 52-week chart of Exelixis ($EXEL) so that you can see the powerful price journey it has taken over the last few months. $EXEL 52 Week Chart What is also very constructive is to look and examine the longer term 10 year monthly chart for Exelixis ($EXEL). In the fast-paced world of Wall Street, the 52-week low price level serves as a pivotal beacon for the seasoned trader. It’s more than just a number; it’s a compass guiding them toward a security’s ‘fair value.’ When a stock flirts with this benchmark, trading considerably beneath its Wall Street estimates, it signals a potential bargain buying opportunity. The veterans in the trading floors often have an eagle eye on this, scouting for hints of a stock’s price bottoming out. Such a trend suggests that the stock might soon ride the bullish wave, making the 52-week low an indispensable tool in a trader’s analytical arsenal. But here’s the rub: A stock skirting its 52-week low often rings alarm bells in the market. And if it continues its slide, setting a new 52-week low, the sentiment darkens further. However, seasoned investors know that it’s those very troughs, when tested and unbroken multiple times, that can precede monumental rallies. Case in point: Exelixis ($EXEL). The stock’s resilience at its 52-week low paved the way for a staggering 46% surge in a mere 7 MONTHS. More importantly over the past 5 weeks Exelixis ($EXEL) has continued to make 52 week highs every week. Long time readers of our blog know that one of our all time favorite indicators and filters for finding great trading candidates is stocks that are making new 52 week highs. To complete the picture, a deeper dive into Exelixis ($EXEL)’s decade-long monthly chart would be insightful. It’s these long-term trajectories that provide the broader context, so crucial in this world of highs and lows. $EXEL 10 Year Monthly Chart Best Case – Worst Case Scenario $EXEL When appraising a potential trade or long-term asset commitment, it’s paramount to delve into the innate dynamics of the asset. One discerning method involves juxtaposing the asset’s peak rallies against its most pronounced declines, shedding light on its intrinsic volatility. Moreover, aligning the asset’s returns with the broad market indices furnishes an objective perspective. One can’t mention risk without acknowledging the annualized volatility metric – a gauge that crystallizes the fluctuation amplitude of a stock’s price over time. Essentially, it represents the projected standard deviation observed amid regular market interactions. While raw numbers have their merit, our preference leans towards a more visual representation, adopting a best-case to worst-case scenario analysis. This dual-pronged approach bestows a deeper comprehension of what underlying volatility might mean for future returns. At the core of proficient trading lies an astute grasp of potential asset volatility. In this high-stakes world, we’re chasing MOMENTUM. Yet, momentum walks a tightrope; a keen preliminary analysis can discern if an asset holds its ground after a rally. An essential marker: Exelixis ($EXEL) boasts an annualized volatility rate of 34.5%. In layman’s terms, over the impending 12 months, a 34.5% oscillation in either direction is within its typical behavior bandwidth. Best-Case Scenario Analysis [Image] Here are Some More Investing Tips and Resources. Enjoy! Sponsored [Multiply Your Money 15x with This Market-Beating Report!]( Are you tired of following the advice of the talking heads on TV, only to see your investments go nowhere? It's time to break away from the crowd and discover a proven strategy that defies market uncertainties. [Go HERE to see the Potential Investing Opportunity]( By clicking this link you are subscribing to The Market Genie Newsletter and may receive up to 2 additional free bonus subscriptions. Unsubscribing is easy. [Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( [Vantagepoint Stock of the Week iRobot ($IRBT) and Exelixis ($EXEL)]( This week’s stock analysis is a follow up on iRobot ($IRBT and a full analysis on EXELIXIS ($EXEL) Traditionally our format for the Stock Study of the Week is we pick one stock that the a.i. has been focusing on and show traders how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and neural networks can greatly improve traders’ decision-making processes. Back on June 23rd, we featured iRobot (IRBT). In that analysis we pointed out two especially important details, iRobot was struggling financially in spite of the fact that Amazon had recently made a $61 buyout offer for the company. In that analysis we warned: “The narrative which has driven $IRBT over the past week is that AMAZON is seeking to acquire the company at $61.00 per share. That has been responsible for the sudden price increase based upon the announcement that regulators in the United Kingdom gave the deal a stamp of approval. From a pure valuation perspective, $IRBT offers a very confusing perspective. They had a horrible 2022 and have only had 1 quarter of positive growth over the past year. Revenue fell by 45% over the most recent quarter and the company posted an operating loss of $81 million. For traders who think the Amazon acquisition will occur there could still be a 20% upside. However, should the deal fall through for any reason the risk is greater than 20%. Since there is not broad analyst coverage on the stock current and future price movements will be very much dictated on whether Amazon proceeds with the deal. The company’s next earnings date is August 4th, 2023. $IRBT is currently trading at 1.3 times sales. Amazon may look at a better valuation since their initial offer was 10 months ago and the company has not done well financially since then.” Since that writing $IRBT had rallied to a high of $51.49 and has since fallen to a low of $36.65. Amazon has revised their acquisition offer to $51.75. The entire deal is still under scrutiny from regulators. A deep dive into iRobot’s financials reveals a concerning trajectory. Over the past three fiscal years, the company has seen a decline in both revenue and margins. While 2020 showed promise, by 2022, the company’s revenues had dipped, and gross profit margins shrunk from 47% to a mere 29.5%. Operating expenses, on the other hand, have been on the rise, leading to a net loss for the company. Once boasting a net income of nearly $150 million, iRobot now faces a loss nearing $300 million. The company’s cash flow paints a similar picture. Once positive, the cash from operations has dwindled, leaving iRobot with negative free cash flow. This lack of liquidity has forced the company to take on debt of $200 million for the first time, a move that coincided with Amazon’s reduced acquisition offer. The potential Amazon acquisition offers a glimmer of hope for investors. If the deal goes through at the proposed $51.75 per share, it could mean a 30-35% gain for those holding iRobot stocks. However, this potential reward doesn’t come without risks. Regulatory hurdles, especially from antitrust entities, could jeopardize the deal. Moreover, the competitive landscape of the robot vacuum market, despite iRobot’s recognizable Roomba brand, means the company’s recovery is uncertain without Amazon’s backing. In conclusion, while the Amazon acquisition offers a potential lifeline for iRobot, the company’s declining financial health poses significant risks for investors. As the regulatory scrutiny intensifies, stakeholders are left to weigh the potential rewards against the inherent risks of this merger. As we often discuss in our stock of the week analysis, we rely on artificial intelligence for guidance. Currently, the Vantagepoint A.i. Triple Cross is beginning to form an UP forecast within the next few days. As short-term traders we have $IRBT firmly on our trading radar and are looking at short-term swing trading opportunities. Here is the chart of the TRIPLE Cross indicator. iRobot ($IRBT) with VantagePoint A.I. Triple Cross Indicator Our initial suggestion to Power Traders is to review the $IRBT stock Study from 6/23/23 and continue to use the a.i. for guidance. Based upon recent market volatility $IRBT offers weekly volatility of roughly 6% and the stock will present numerous short-term trading setups. Analysts are convinced that regulators will decide the fate of $IRBT before December 2023. The lowered buyout price is $51.75 per share. $IRBT has acquired $200 million in financing from the Carlisle Group. The stock is trading roughly 33% under the expected buyout price. Our enthusiasm rests not on the prospective buyout but on the fact that the a.i. is setting up another short-term UP forecast after a substantial decline. ============================================================================================================================= EXELIXIS Stock Study Analysis Let’s dive into Exelixis, Inc. It’s a company that, at its core, is all about battling the big ‘C’ – cancer. With its razor-sharp focus on the discovery, development, and delivery of innovative cancer drugs in America, Exelixis is playing its part in this relentless fight. Here’s the financial breakdown: Most of the company’s dollar signs come from its pharmaceutical arm, especially those drugs fighting against cancer. It’s not small potatoes either. With a hefty market cap north of $7 billion, it’s clear this California-based outfit has made its mark since its birth in 1994, thanks to its founder Dr. George A. Scangos. But, and there’s always a ‘but’ in business, Exelixis is not alone on this battlefield. The biotech world is teeming with heavy hitters, names you know like Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Roche, all vying for a piece of the oncology pie. The stakes? High. The competition? Fierce. What intrigues me is this ever-evolving dance between biotech and oncology. The rapid strides in research are opening doors every day, and companies like Exelixis are poised to step through pioneering treatments that could fill gaps in our medical arsenal. Think about it: Innovative therapies? Check. Collaborative efforts with big pharma to expedite progress? Double check. But let me tell you, as much as this landscape brims with potential, it’s also riddled with pitfalls. The biotech world is not for the faint-hearted. Skyrocketing R&D costs, regulatory minefields, cutthroat competition – it’s all par for the course. And always, always that lurking question: Will the next drug pass the muster of clinical trials or face the dreaded FDA rejection? All eyes are on Exelixis’ headline drugs: CABOMETYX, raking in an impressive $403.3 million annually, and COMETRIQ, pulling its weight with $25.3 million. But in this industry, it’s not just about the here and now. It’s about the next breakthrough, the next partnership, the next risk. So, where does that leave us? Watching, waiting, and always, always rooting for those who are pushing boundaries in the pursuit of a cancer-free world. Stay tuned, folks. The story of Exelixis is one we’ll be tracking closely. In this weekly stock study, we will look at and analyze the following indicators and metrics which are our guidelines to dictate our behavior regarding any stock analysis. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates 52-week high and low boundaries Vantagepoint A.I. Triple Cross Indicator The Best Case – Worst Case Scenarios Neural Network Forecast Daily Range Forecast Intermarket Analysis Our trading suggestion We don’t base our trading decisions on things like earnings or fundamental cash flow valuations. However, we do look at them to better understand the financial landscape that a company is operating under. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates The 16 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Exelixis Inc have a median target of $25.50, with a high estimate of $32.00 and a low estimate of $18.00. The median estimate represents a +13.36% increase from the last price of $22.50. What is fascinating for us to acknowledge is the VARIANCE range between the most bullish and bearish analysts on Wall Street. We calculate this number by subtracting the low forecast ($18) from the high forecast (432) and dividing that value by the current price of $22.50. This variance is 62.22% and it tells us what the expected volatility is based upon Wall Street Analysts. 52-Week High and Low Boundaries Over the past year we have seen Exelixis ($EXEL) trade as low as $14.87 and as high as $22.64. This tells us that the annual trading range is $7.77. We would also like to divide the annual trading range of $7.77 into the current price of $22.50 to get a broad-based estimate of trading volatility. This tells us that the volatility of Exelixis ($EXEL) over the past year has been 34.5%. This value also provides us with a basic estimate in letting us know that if the future is like the recent past, it would be normal for $$IRBT to trade in a range that is 34.5% higher and/or lower than the current price over the next year. More importantly we have two important estimates of volatility from our analysis so far. Wall Street analysts tell us that they expect a variance of 62.2% around the current price of $22.50. Meanwhile the price history of the last year tells us that the statistical volatility of the past year is 34.5%. We would expect that over the next 12 months the volatility will be between these two levels. Here is the annual 52-week chart of Exelixis ($EXEL) so that you can see the powerful price journey it has taken over the last few months. $EXEL 52 Week Chart What is also very constructive is to look and examine the longer term 10 year monthly chart for Exelixis ($EXEL). In the fast-paced world of Wall Street, the 52-week low price level serves as a pivotal beacon for the seasoned trader. It’s more than just a number; it’s a compass guiding them toward a security’s ‘fair value.’ When a stock flirts with this benchmark, trading considerably beneath its Wall Street estimates, it signals a potential bargain buying opportunity. The veterans in the trading floors often have an eagle eye on this, scouting for hints of a stock’s price bottoming out. Such a trend suggests that the stock might soon ride the bullish wave, making the 52-week low an indispensable tool in a trader’s analytical arsenal. But here’s the rub: A stock skirting its 52-week low often rings alarm bells in the market. And if it continues its slide, setting a new 52-week low, the sentiment darkens further. However, seasoned investors know that it’s those very troughs, when tested and unbroken multiple times, that can precede monumental rallies. Case in point: Exelixis ($EXEL). The stock’s resilience at its 52-week low paved the way for a staggering 46% surge in a mere 7 MONTHS. More importantly over the past 5 weeks Exelixis ($EXEL) has continued to make 52 week highs every week. Long time readers of our blog know that one of our all time favorite indicators and filters for finding great trading candidates is stocks that are making new 52 week highs. To complete the picture, a deeper dive into Exelixis ($EXEL)’s decade-long monthly chart would be insightful. It’s these long-term trajectories that provide the broader context, so crucial in this world of highs and lows. $EXEL 10 Year Monthly Chart Best Case – Worst Case Scenario $EXEL When appraising a potential trade or long-term asset commitment, it’s paramount to delve into the innate dynamics of the asset. One discerning method involves juxtaposing the asset’s peak rallies against its most pronounced declines, shedding light on its intrinsic volatility. Moreover, aligning the asset’s returns with the broad market indices furnishes an objective perspective. One can’t mention risk without acknowledging the annualized volatility metric – a gauge that crystallizes the fluctuation amplitude of a stock’s price over time. Essentially, it represents the projected standard deviation observed amid regular market interactions. While raw numbers have their merit, our preference leans towards a more visual representation, adopting a best-case to worst-case scenario analysis. This dual-pronged approach bestows a deeper comprehension of what underlying volatility might mean for future returns. At the core of proficient trading lies an astute grasp of potential asset volatility. In this high-stakes world, we’re chasing MOMENTUM. Yet, momentum walks a tightrope; a keen preliminary analysis can discern if an asset holds its ground after a rally. An essential marker: Exelixis ($EXEL) boasts an annualized volatility rate of 34.5%. In layman’s terms, over the impending 12 months, a 34.5% oscillation in either direction is within its typical behavior bandwidth. Best-Case Scenario Analysis [Continue Reading...]( [Vantagepoint Stock of the Week iRobot ($IRBT) and Exelixis ($EXEL)]( And, in case you missed it: - [Innovative Technology: Robots’ Object Recognition Skills]( - [BCI PODCAST 109: Delta and Strike Selection for Covered call Writing]( - [2 Stocks That Doubled EPS Estimates and Flashing Buy Signals]( - [Oil Prices: The Losing Streak Amidst Tightening Supplies]( - [Vitgert ICO (VGT): Revolution in Crypto Wallets for Trading]( - FREE OR LOW COST INVESTING RESOURCES - [i]( [i]( [i]( [i]( Sponsored [How To Extract Profits From Uncertain Markets]( The news wants to scream “doom and gloom” about the current market. Conditions feel uncertain – that’s the prevailing sentiment. But guess what? There’s NEVER any real certainty in the market. Reveal how you can take advantage of this current market. 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