Don’t Let a Good Bank Run Go to Waste

How to Avoid the Next Bank Crash… [Morning Reckoning] March 14, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Don’t Let a Good Bank Run Go to Waste Baltimore, Maryland March 14, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, I began my trading week by waking up to a long list of banks plummeting into the abyss as a whiff of panic spread beyond the walls of the Silicon Valley Bank implosion. Everyone’s still groggy from the weekend time change – but that hasn’t stopped friends and relatives from blowing up my phone with countless market meltdown questions… Are stocks going to crash? What happens next? What should I do? These are simple questions. But they don’t have easy answers. So, I’m going to stick with what I know. When a crisis hits, all your plans begin to look silly and irrelevant. I was focused last week on rates, the US dollar index, and the market’s reaction to a slew of economic data as the averages chopped along at key levels. We were debating whether the Fed would continue to drag the market toward another 50 basis-point hike. Could this fragile market handle another rate bump? Would shell shocked investors stick around if stocks lurched lower? These concerns are now firmly on the back burner. This week, all we’re hearing about are banks, banks, banks. It’s all too easy to get sucked into the noise machine. The financial news, our government overlords, and the venture capital echo chamber are using fear to get what they want. We’ve already witnessed a swift bailout over the weekend. As the old saying goes, never let a good crisis go to waste. We shouldn’t, either. Now’s a great time to reassess open positions, review bigger-picture market ideas, and (most importantly) figure out what has and has not changed in the market since last week. [Secret Gold Back currency RUINING Biden’s plans for a digital dollar?]( [Click here to learn more]( What I’m holding in my hand is a completely new form of money… As we speak, it's being used as an alternative currency across the U.S. minting in places like Utah, New Hampshire and Nevada… And since it’s made out of a thinly printed sheet of REAL gold... It may be the single best way to protect your wealth from Biden’s plan for a government controlled digital dollar. That’s why, I want to offer to send one to you today. But since I have a limited number I need you to respond to [this message]( by Wednesday at midnight. [I’ve recorded a short 2 minute message that explains everything here.]( [LEARN MORE]( How to Avoid the Next SVB First, it’s probably a good idea to make sure we don’t get caught in any positions that could meet a fate similar to the crashing banks. This is where charts are especially useful. A crucial fact that gets lost in the noise of these inevitable crises is that stocks don’t crash from their highs. But that’s not how the financial media portrays these events. If we’re to believe the narrative, everything was going peachy keen for long-term SVB investors until late last week. Sentiment and those slippery fundamentals (or at least, the market’s collective understanding of the fundamentals) did abruptly change. Aside from a few diligent short-sellers, no one was panicking about Silicon Valley Bank’s ability to keep its doors open seven short days ago. But an avid chart watcher wouldn’t have been involved in Silicon Valley Bank. Why? For starters, the stock was going down for a long time. More specifically, the stock was locked in an obvious downtrend while pinned under its declining 200-day moving average. [chart] This stock gave investors zero reasons to trust any of its rallies since its peak in late 2021. Even a strong January snapback was roundly rejected before it could make an attempt at topping its 200-day moving average. That’s a decent sign the downtrend is still very much intact. Aside from a short-term minded swing trader attempting to play a quick momentum move at the very beginning of the year, the chart offers no signals to a long-term minded investor. Of course, not every chart that looks like this will crash. But every stock that does crash will likely have peaked many months before the main event that seals its fate. The sellers will trickle in little by little. Eventually, if everything goes perfectly wrong, the floodgates will open. The lesson here is simple: Don’t buy stocks in downtrends. Not only will you sleep better at night – you’ll probably also avoid any major market catastrophes in the future. [[Urgent] Analyst Issues Rare “All-In” Buy Alert For $3 Stock]( [Click here to learn more]( [This m]( be the biggest miracle of modern medicine that you or I will ever witness…]( Breakthrough new research shows that one $3 company is on the verge of fixing one of the biggest health problems in America today. And no, I’m not talking about cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s or anything else you’d expect… The disease I’m talking about affects a staggering 58 million American adults, or about 1 in 4 adults in this country. [>> Click Here Right Away For Details On This Urgent Buy Alert <<]( [LEARN MORE]( Surviving a Stock Market Shock It’s a mess out there right now. It feels as if market conditions are changing faster than the weather in New England. Decision making is especially difficult during these market shocks. The first instinct of many investors is to do something. News is breaking! Markets are in flux! It’s time to make a big move… Unfortunately, these knee-jerk reactions often lead to trouble. A volatile market is like quicksand. If you thrash around too much, you’re going to be up to your neck in poorly-judged trades. During these sudden, event-driven market moves, it’s usually best to take a step back. Yes, you should always honor stop losses on your open positions. I’m not advocating for taking your hands off the wheel! But firing off round after round of directional plays coming off a weekend of bank failures isn’t a winning formula. Another valuable market exercise during these bursts of volatility is to turn back the clock to just before the event rattled Wall Street. What were the key market levels before the trouble started? What trends were already changing? The market’s still very much in-flux as I type. I want to relay to you exactly what I’m seeing right now – just understand these facts could change between now and when this note hits your inbox… Here’s what has my attention now: The US dollar index failed at 105 and has turned sharply lower. Early last week, I noted that a move lower from the dollar at these key levels could help spark the next leg of the gold rally. Mix in a little fear from the ongoing bank crisis and the fuse is lit. Gold has settled higher for three straight sessions and has blasted above $1,900 following an ugly February. Silver is rocketing higher. The miners are snapping back to life. Are they finally ready to break out of their choppy ranges? The noise is deafening – don’t let it distract you from these opportunities. Let me know what you thought of today’s article… and if you want any more topics covered by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Urgent Notice From Paradigm CIO Zach Scheidt!]( [Click here to learn more]( Hi, Zach Scheidt here… I’m the Chief Income Officer at Paradigm Press. With inflation raging (and showing no signs of coming to an end any time soon), almost everyone in America is feeling the pain in a big way. Which is why, several months ago, I set out on a big mission… my goal was to create a [complete, step-by-step plan to surviving and beating inflation]( one that anyone could take advantage of. Today, after hundreds of hours of research, I’m revealing all of my findings. [Simply click here now to see how to survive America’s deadly inflation crisis](. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Sean Ring and Bryon King, Editors The 2023 Daily Reckoning Gold Buying Guide [Sean Ring] SEAN RING [Byron King] BYRON KING Good Morning Reader, Greetings and salutations on this fine Thursday morning! Last Friday, Byron and I co-hosted a [Rickards Uncensored]( session. Both Jim Rickards and Matt Insley were away, so Matt handed the keys to me. Looking out of the corners of his eyes he silently intimated to me, “Don’t muck this up!” To stay on the reservation, the safest thing for me to do was to let Byron talk as much as possible. And what a good call that was! Byron is a lively raconteur with an unrivaled gift for storytelling. And his props are the best! He showed us the drill bit that struck his first oil well. He showed us shiny rocks and gleaming bullion. Byron even showed us a shell from one of the Navy’s guns. In short, he was a total rockstar. (Has a geologist ever been called that before?) I just sat there with a bottle of Barbaresco and enjoyed myself like I was a member of the audience. But before we even went on, Byron and I were trying to figure out what we were going to talk about. Byron said, “You know, Sean… I think we should talk about how to buy gold. Not everyone knows…” It turned out to be exactly what the doctor ordered. [“Biden Blackouts” coming this winter?]( [Click here to learn more]( A former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon just made this dark prediction: Calamity Joe’s sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline [His Evidence Here]( was suicide. In the next 75 days, Americans will face fuel shortages… …widespread blackouts… …empty grocery shelves… …up to $1000 energy bills… …drained retirement accounts, and… …a massive crime wave. This former CIA advisor says most Americans will suffer this winter. But a few will WIN big from the turmoil. [Here’s how to be one of them](. [LEARN MORE]( Last week in this column, I wrote “[This Relic is Ready for its Close-Up]( It was about how we all liked the yellow metal in Paradigm’s editorial room. On Tuesday, Greg Guenthner wrote “[Can Gold Defeat the Big, Bad Dollar?]( It’s about the current USD-gold war. (You can read that below if you haven’t already.) We’re detecting a theme here. So today, Byron and I are going to show you how to buy gold, depending on your situation. We talked about it on the [Rickards Uncensored]( call. Now we’re putting it in print for you to bookmark in case you need it. Obviously, we don’t know what your portfolio looks like, so please don’t take this as personal investment advice. It’s for your education and edification. If and how you implement what’s in this piece is entirely up to you. Let’s get to it. The Ways to Buy Gold We’re going to go in the order of least risky to riskiest. We’re of the view that if you hold the gold in a safe in your house, that’s the safest. If you live in an urban community full of artists, your mileage will vary on that assumption. Individual Coins and Bars Hard Assets Alliance Paradigm Press has had a relationship with [Hard Assets Alliance]( for a long time. We want you to know that for two reasons. One is that we’ve got a duty of care we owe you. And the second is that there’s a reason for the long relationship: HAA is excellent at what it does and takes care of our subscribers. Hard Assets Alliance allows you to buy gold at your pace and then take physical delivery once you own enough full bars or coins. If you’re new to buying gold — or if you’ve tried online dealers in the past and you’ve been put off by the complexity — there’s no easier way to [buy and hold real physical metal at exceptionally low cost](. You can also buy and store your metal in your choice of five audited vaults worldwide. It’s the hands-down [easiest way to get started with gold]( silver, and other metals. The US Mint If you prefer to buy coins directly from your country’s mint, that’s certainly an option. However, we’ve noticed the mints tend to charge well over spot price for whichever metal you’re buying. For example, as I type, the spot price of gold on the market is $1,820 per ounce. In the US Mint Catalog, the American Eagle 2022 One Ounce Gold Uncirculated Coin costs $2,670.00. That’s a 46.7% premium over spot. Unless you’re a genuine coin collector, it’s not the best deal. Contrast that with the Hard Assets Alliance. A 1-ounce gold bar is $1,867.10. That’s only 2.58% over spot. You get much more value for your fiat. Gold ETFs Next, we look at the precious metals ETFs, specifically gold ETFs. ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds traded on stock exchanges like individual stocks. An ETF is designed to track the performance of an underlying index or basket of assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities or currencies. These two ETFs track the price of gold… [Crypto Legend Reveals: “The Next Bitcoin”]( He called Bitcoin at $61. Now he says this next crypto will be even bigger. In fact, he’s targeting 25X gains over the next year alone. [>>Click here now for the details]( [LEARN MORE]( GLD The GLD ETF, or SPDR Gold Shares, is one of the largest and most popular ETFs investing in physical gold. The GLD ETF provides investors with an easy and cost-effective way to invest in gold, without having to own and store physical gold themselves. The physical gold is held in a vault in London. GLD shares represent a fraction of an ounce of gold. So when investors buy shares of GLD, they’re effectively buying a portion of the underlying gold GLD holds. The GLD is trading around $169. That’s a touch under 10% of the price of a gold ounce. SGOL If that’s a bit too pricey for you, that’s ok. Another option is the SGOL ETF. SGOL invests in physical gold, held in a vault in Switzerland. The SGOL ETF is similar to the GLD ETF, but there are some differences. For example, the SGOL ETF is backed by gold held in a vault in Switzerland, while the GLD ETF is backed by gold held in a vault in London. Additionally, the SGOL ETF has a lower expense ratio than the GLD ETF. Right now, SGOL is trading $17.38, a bit under 1% of the spot price of an ounce of gold. So this is a cheaper way of starting with gold ETFs. Gold Miners ETFs The Gold Miners ETFs invest in companies that are involved in gold mining and exploration. Since there are 56 companies in the GDX and 104 companies in the GDXJ, investors are well diversified within the miners’ spaces. GDX The GDX ETF, or the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, is an ETF that invests in, you guessed it, gold mining companies. The ETF's objective is to track the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. It invests in a diversified portfolio of gold mining companies, such as gold producers and exploration companies. The ETF's holdings are spread across various countries, with a significant portion of its holdings in Canada, the United States, and Australia. Right now, GDX is trading around $26.75. GDXJ The GDXJ ETF, or the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, is an ETF that invests in smaller gold mining companies. The ETF's objective is to track the performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. It invests in a diversified portfolio of gold mining companies but with smaller market capitalizations compared to those in the GDX ETF. These companies are generally considered to be riskier investments than their larger counterparts, but they may also offer more potential for growth. Right now, GDXJ trades for about $32.25. “Pure Plays” – Single Stocks It’s important to understand you’re exposed to two big risks with single stocks: systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic, or market, risk is the risk your stock may fall through no fault of its own; its price may fall just because the market has a bad day. Unsystematic, or specific, risk is the risk your stock falls even if the market is having a great day. This is the risk specific to your stock, which may have bad management or an earnings miss. These two risks are amplified if you own gold mining, exploration, or royalty companies. Single Established Companies If you’re up for a bit more risk, you can choose any one of the [constituent companies in the GDX](. Companies like Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold, and Franco Nevada are well-known and respected companies. But like any single stock undertaking, you’re carrying more risk with single stocks than by investing in an index. Even established gold miners are riskier than the average stock. Small Cap Mining and Exploration Companies There are even riskier companies that can increase your wealth substantially. As Byron likes to say, “Investing in these companies can sometimes take you from this side of town to that side of town.” That is, one winner with these companies can create life-altering generational wealth. In the last [Rickards Uncensored]( call, Byron listed five of the potential companies. Like I said, I enjoyed that call like I was a subscriber. I hope you choose to join us next time. Byron and I don’t always do the calls. You’ll get the man himself, Jim Rickards, sometimes. Other times, you’ll get our publisher, Matt Insley, or the hardest working analyst in the business, Dan Amoss. We mix it up, so you get the fullest possible coverage from Paradigm Press. We’d love to see you on the next call. You can sign up [here](. Gold Futures Lastly, I’ll mention gold futures. We don’t want you to trade these. They’re just too risky. But gold is unique in that the futures price leads the physical price and not the other way around. So the gold futures market is critically important. Keep an eye on it so you know what’s going on. But if you’re new to gold investing, our other choices above are far better suited to your needs. Wrap Up I hope you got a lot out of this piece. It’s more of a reference column than anything else. Hopefully, it gives you food-for-thought when considering your next move in the gold market. Let me know what you think by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Be sure to tell me if there are any topics you’d like me to cover in future articles. Have a great rest of your week! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. 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