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Jobless Claims, Banks, Cryptos, and Staley: What a Mess!

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Fri, Mar 10, 2023 12:07 PM

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Yesterday was a Thursday the market would rather forget. | Jobless Claims, Banks, Cryptos, and Stale

Yesterday was a Thursday the market would rather forget. [The Rude Awakening] March 10, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Jobless Claims, Banks, Cryptos, and Staley: What a Mess! - Jobless claims weren’t high enough. - Silicon Valley Bank gets crushed, down over 60% on the day. - Bitcoin gets hammered under $20,000. [[Urgent] Analyst Issues Rare “All-In” Buy Alert For $3 Stock]( [Click here to learn more]( [This m]( be the biggest miracle of modern medicine that you or I will ever witness…]( Breakthrough new research shows that one $3 company is on the verge of fixing one of the biggest health problems in America today. And no, I’m not talking about cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s or anything else you’d expect… The disease I’m talking about affects a staggering 58 million American adults, or about 1 in 4 adults in this country. [>> Click Here Right Away For Details On This Urgent Buy Alert]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Friday! Or at least I wish you one. And I hope it’s better than yesterday. Disclosure: I’m a few short energy stocks, so yesterday was perfectly enjoyable for me. Yesterday morning, I wrote about how this morning’s nonfarm payroll report is critical. If the number comes in too strong, Chairman Pow will have a better case to hike rates higher and for longer. I briefly mentioned the initial jobless claims report, but honestly, I didn’t think it was as important. Alas, it was. I also missed the banking sector. Since Credit Suisse has been such a mess for so long, I haven’t been looking elsewhere in the banking system for any issues. Well, yesterday, those problems came home to roost. To cap it all off, Bitcoin got slammed as well. BTC just doesn’t seem to be able to keep a rally going. Let’s take them one by one, so we can see what happened. Yesterday’s Jobless Claims and Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls When the market opened yesterday, not that much was happening. In fact, after about two hours, I stopped watching and did something else—my mistake. [SJN] As you can see, after about two hours was when all the fun began. It was as if the market got increasingly upset over a jobless claims number that wasn’t incendiary in and of itself. [SJN] Initial jobless claims came in at 211,000. The expected number was 195,000, and the prior was 190,000. You’d think the Fed would be happy with more people looking for work than expected. It’s just that the number wasn’t high enough for the market’s liking. The SPX proceeded to swan dive from 4,000 to 3,910 at one point before finishing the day at 3,918.32. And we’re not out of the woods yet. We’ve got the nonfarm payroll number this morning. [SJN] If we come in much higher than the consensus 225,000 number, we’ll sell off hard into the weekend. If we’re under 225,000, Powell won’t be as keen to hike rates vigorously. But the jobless claims number wasn’t the only thing weighing down on the market. [Over 62 And Collect Social Security? Take Action Immediately!]( [Click here to learn more]( [If you’re over the age of 62 and currently collect Social Security, you need to prepare now](. Because Biden has given our country the worst inflation in decades – and many warn things will only get worse from here. Worse yet, the Social Security check you receive now may not keep pace with inflation… [Which is why, if you don’t act now, you could fall behind in the months ahead](. Is your retirement at immediate risk? [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive inflation](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Silicon Valley Bank, the BKX, and JPM’s Jes Staley Issue Silicon Valley Bank ran into trouble because it parked its deposits in US Treasuries. Thanks to Chairman Pow’s hiking policy, USTs aren’t the safe investment they used to be. Note: when we say USTs are “risk-free,” we mean default risk-free. That is, the US Treasury will never default on its bonds because the Treasury can always hit CTRL-P to print the interest payments and principal repayment. Of course, they aren’t price risk-free. As they say in the City of London, they’re “whore’s drawers.” Up and down, up and down. Since banks have to mark-to-market their securities positions daily, those losses directly and immediately affect the income statement (profit and loss), which feeds into the balance sheet through the equity section. Though those financial statements are reported quarterly, information like this allows the market to “price in” the damage. That’s why stock prices occasionally nosedive in between quarterly releases. From [The Wall Street Journal]( Thursday’s rout is another consequence of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to control inflation. Rising interest rates have caused the value of existing bonds with lower payouts to fall in value. Banks own a lot of those bonds, including Treasurys, and are now sitting on giant unrealized losses. Large declines in value aren’t necessarily a problem for banks unless they are forced to sell the assets to cover deposit withdrawals. Most banks aren’t doing so, even though their customers are starting to move their deposits into higher-yielding alternatives. Yet a few banks have run into trouble this week, sparking fears that other banks could be forced to take losses to raise cash. [SJN] The stock fell to $106.04 yesterday, a drop of 60.41%. Over 38 million shares traded, an enormous number compared to the weighted average of the last 20 trading days of only 2.55 million shares. But how about this big winner? Note: Buying puts gives you the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified quantity of a specific stock at a date in the future, at a price agreed upon today (the premium). If you buy puts, you’re “buying downside” or “bearish.” [SJN] Credit: [@notmrmanziel]( Isn’t that a beautiful thing? There are always a few big winners for every loser out there. That’s derivatives for you. It wasn’t just SIVB - it was the entire banking complex. [SJN] The KBW Banking Index was down 7.70% yesterday. Ouch. The KBW portfolio includes large national money centers, regional banks, and thrift institutions traded in the US. The big bank bearing the brunt of the selling force was the US’s largest bank, JP Morgan. [SJN] Why is that? From [The Wall Street Journal]( JPMorgan Chase & Co. sued former executive Jes Staley over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, identifying Mr. Staley as the “powerful financial executive” accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit against the bank. Late last year, an unnamed woman alleged that JPMorgan aided Epstein’s sex trafficking by allowing him to remain a client and helping him send money to the late financier’s victims. The woman, in her lawsuit against the bank, said an Epstein friend sexually assaulted her using aggressive force but said she was afraid to identify him publicly. JPMorgan Wednesday said that friend was Mr. Staley. JPMorgan’s lawsuit against Mr. Staley adds him to the woman’s lawsuit and another Epstein-related case filed by the U.S. Virgin Islands. The legal maneuver allows the bank to argue Mr. Staley should have to pay damages if the bank is held responsible. Epstein may not have killed himself, but he keeps killing all his associates! Bitcoin’s Nosedive At the time of my writing this, Bitcoin is now under $20,000. At least we’ve got some good gallows humor from the Twitterverse: [sjn] Credit: The Chart Report, via [@followtheh]( I still hold that Bitcoin, at least for now, is a tech play. It’s too correlated to the general market to be considered a store of value. Like most derivatives - although Bitcoin maximalists would bristle at that term - Bitcoin was invented for noble reasons but has become a gambling instrument. Wrap Up “My, my, my, what a mess…” said Tommy Lee Jones as he surveyed the trainwreck in The Fugitive. That’s exactly what we got yesterday. Hopefully, the payroll number today won’t be so damaging. In the meantime, have a restful and enjoyable weekend! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening In Case You Missed It… The Barbarous Relic is Ready for its Close-Up - After taking a break lately, gold looks primed for a rally. - The barbarous relic is trading at roughly $1,836. - It’s got plenty of upside from this level. Asti, Northern Italy March 10, 2023 [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good Morning Reader, One of the highlights of my week is the Paradigm Editorial Call. All the big boys are there; Byron King, Ray Blanco and Dan Amoss… to name a few. Jonathan Rodriguez always arrives armed with reams of statistics. Ace options trader, Alan Knuckman, keeps us from straying too far into pessimism. I’ve learned truckloads about options and attitude since Alan started joining our call. To paraphrase Don Rickles, “Alan is the best; just ask him!” Of course, I write that with a wink and smile because I have learned to look at things differently. At my age, you’re a grateful old dog when you can learn some new tricks. We have great chats and arguments, all in the name of sharing what we know with each other. Jonathan and Alan are the IrresistaBulls. Dan, Byron and I, the ImmovaBears. This week was no different. Well, until we got to the one subject we all – somehow – agreed on. And that subject is gold. [Governors warn of “Biden Blackouts”]( [Click here to learn more]( A former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon just made this dark prediction: Calamity Joe’s sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline [His Evidence Here]( was suicide. In the next 75 days, Americans will face fuel shortages… …widespread BLACKOUTS… …empty grocery shelves… …up to $1000 energy bills… …drained retirement accounts, and… …a massive crime wave. [>>Welcome to Biden’s American Energy Armageddon<<]( [Click Here To Learn More]( I think we were more surprised than anything else. And what a pleasant surprise it was! So shocking that I decided to write about it for you. But before I dig into the yellow metal, some housekeeping. On January 26th, I wrote a column for the Morning Reckoning titled, “[Give Up on the Idea of a Free Society]( My good friend and Libertarianism.uk podcast host, Andy Duncan, liked it so much, he interviewed me about it. If you’ve got a spare thirty minutes, feel free to watch it [here](. According to Andy, my t-shirt stole the show. Next bit of housekeeping: I will be hosting this Friday’s Rickards Uncensored session. The star of the show will be none other than Byron King, our ace geologist, lawyer, ex-Naval aviator, and Rickards precious metals and energy expert. Byron and I will talk about his favorite gold picks for 2023. I encourage you to attend so you can hear Byron’s best. Ok, with the housekeeping out of the way, let’s get to today’s piece on the yellow metal… and why it’s back in favor. James Bond and Goldfinger Although I think From Russia with Love is a better movie, Goldfinger is undoubtedly the archetypal Bond film. From Bond’s Aston Martin DB5 to “No, Mister Bond, I expect you to die!” Goldfinger started many of the traditions and tropes we’ve come to expect from Bond films. After Auric Goldfinger murders Bond’s girlfriend by suffocating her skin with gold paint, M is concerned whether Bond can go on with the mission. M asks, “What do you know about gold, (not paint, bullion)?” Bond coolly and inimitably replies, “I know it when I see it.” Don’t we all, Commander Bond? And that’s the thing. Most people intuitively understand that gold, the yellow metal that never rusts, is something special. But no one really explores gold beyond that point. So let’s quickly review why it’s a good idea to own at least some gold. Why Own Gold at All? Gold shines like the sun – is malleable and divisible and never rusts. It was the perfect metal from which to make coins. It also has a natural supply constraint. No more than 2% of the global gold supply has ever been mined in a single year. Gold is also no one’s liability, unlike dollars. That is, if you own gold, you don’t owe anyone anything. But the USD is often referred to as a liability because it is a debt-based currency, meaning that it is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. When the US government issues dollars, it is essentially creating a liability for itself, as it is obligated to honor the value of those dollars by providing goods and services in exchange. Of course, the difference between what it costs to produce one hundred dollars (about 17 cents) and the value of goods producers need to provide to acquire one hundred dollars is called seigniorage ($100 - $0.17 = $99.83). It’s a huge profit for the USG, which is why the French coined it “the exorbitant privilege.” There are five big reasons to own gold, especially in times like these: - Store of value: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. It’s been used as a store of value for thousands of years and has maintained its purchasing power over time. - Diversification: Gold is a tangible asset that isn’t directly tied to the performance of other investments, such as stocks and bonds. This makes it an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios. - Safe haven: During times of economic and political uncertainty, gold is often seen as a safe haven asset that can help protect wealth from market volatility and systemic risk. - Potential for appreciation: While gold doesn’t generate income like stocks or bonds, it has the potential to appreciate in value over time. This makes it an attractive option for investors looking to take advantage of price fluctuations in the gold market. - Cultural significance: Gold has a long history of cultural significance and has been used for ornamental, ceremonial, and religious purposes for thousands of years. Owning gold can therefore hold sentimental value for some individuals. So owning even a bit of gold always makes sense. But right now, it makes even more sense because of recent price movements. In March 2022, an ounce of gold traded up to $2,043.30. Then the price fell to November’s low of $1,626.65. It started to rally hard from there to reach about $1,970 at the beginning of February. For some reason – probably the realization that the Fed will continue to hike – gold fell to its present price of roughly $1,836. But far from thinking there’s more downside, nearly all my colleagues are looking at the upside. What’s the Upside? Well, if you use the unadjusted high from 1980, that price is $850. But adjusting that $850 to 2023 dollars gives you $3,074. That’s 67% upside. And that’s if you just buy physical gold. If you trade gold futures, ETFs, or gold mining companies, your upside can be much higher. Why Would Gold Head to $3,074? My friend and colleague Dan Amoss put together a great chart for Strategic Intelligence readers. Speaking of Strategic Intelligence… My colleague Jim Rickards just predicted the end of the U.S. dollar… He’s seeing something coming on the horizon – where the government will confiscate your cash… or your cash will simply become worthless paper. There’s a way to sidestep this government-backed invasion into your bank account, however. He’ll give you the roadmap to protecting yourself… including how to use [gold]( to safeguard your wealth. [Click here to learn more.]( Now let’s continue with this chart… It shows a deeply inverted yield curve right now. That is, short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. That happens in deep hiking cycles. The thing is, when the hiking stops, and the yield curve snaps back to normal (long > short) from an inversion, gold tends to rally hard and fast. We think that will happen sometime near the end of the year. So now is the perfect time to buy gold if you haven’t already. Really, you haven’t missed the big move yet! And there are two other geopolitical events worth mentioning. Who Owns Most of the Gold? These are the top countries who own gold: - United States of America - Germany - Italy - France - Russian Federation - China - Switzerland - Japan - India - Netherlands More and more central banks are scoffing up gold to hedge against a USD collapse. And if central banks are buying, the price will certainly get driven up. Sooner or later, USD hegemony will be a thing of the past. The only way you can protect yourself against that is to own gold. Wrap Up There are some compelling reasons to own gold right now. It’s underpriced, has huge upside, and is about to get back to the adult’s table in currency products. History may look back on the Bretton Woods era and say, “Paper, schmaper…” I hope you enjoyed this insight. Let me know what you think by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Be sure to tell me if there are any topics you’d like me to cover in future articles. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Rude Awakening.](

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