Shiny Silver’s Moonshot

The long-awaited silver bull may have just started running. October 21, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( The Running of the Silver Bulls SEAN RING Resources billionaire and long-time Paradigm Press friend Rick Rule has often said, “Gold is for fear. Silver is for greed.” Well, it’s time to get your Gordon Gekko on. The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed -- for lack of a better word -- is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed -- you mark my words -- will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you very much. My goodness, I loved Michael Douglas in that movie. And yes, I can recite that speech from memory, not because I ever wanted to be a criminal, but because I believe its message to be true. It made me laugh when people like Michael Lewis, the author of Liar’s Poker, and Douglas would wonder why such criminal characters like Gordon Gekko inspired young Wall Street bankers. Well, gents, you shouldn’t have made them so glamorous! But I’m not here to talk about Wall Street today. I’m here to rave about silver. The precious metal that represents our “greed” has taken flight. Remember Russia Buying? You may remember my starting “Gold Week” a few weeks ago with silver. I thought it was necessary because that was the first real sign of silver’s life. One of the most critical aspects of the metals rally is that it’s mostly been central bank buying driving it. Retail and institutional buying is nowhere to be seen… yet. The Russian Central Bank's decision to join the silver acquisition party is a strategic move that reinforces the potential of silver as a valuable asset, instilling confidence in the market. To remind you, here’s what I wrote two weeks ago: Russia’s intention to boost its silver reserves aligns with its broader strategy of accumulating precious metals, particularly gold, to safeguard against economic sanctions and currency volatility. Russia’s ongoing isolation from Western financial systems, such as SWIFT, has prompted its government to seek alternatives to dollar-dominated reserves. As fiat currencies lose value and government bonds become riskier, assets like gold and now silver offer safer alternatives. While gold has been the traditional go-to, silver is gaining traction as a complementary asset. Russia’s decision is particularly noteworthy because it challenges the traditional role of silver as a purely industrial metal. Historically, most silver demand has come from industrial uses—solar panels, electronics, and green energy technologies. However, Russia acknowledges its dual role as an industrial commodity and a potential financial asset by including silver in its state reserves. The implications of this move could be profound. Silver demand could spike if other nations follow suit, driving prices higher. Some analysts speculate that silver could rise to $50 per ounce or even higher as central banks worldwide reconsider its strategic value. So, we now have at least one central bank buying silver for its reserves. It’s easy to see other central banks following suit, especially if it becomes BRICS policy. Tomorrow, the 16th BRICS Summit will start in Kazan, Russia. Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS has many aims, but these [three stated economic and financial aims]( caught my eye: - Enhancing the role of BRICS states in the international monetary and financial system - Developing interbank cooperation, providing assistance in transforming the international payment system, and expanding the use of the national currencies of BRICS states in mutual trade - Strengthening cooperation on the use of payment systems and financial technologies An interesting line from the [Economic Times]( (India) read: When leaders of the BRICS agglomeration meet this week in Russia’s Kazan, the dominant theme would be how to ringfence themselves from the financial missiles the West fires to settle political scores. Now that Russia, if not the whole of the BRICS, has entered the silver arena, what do the charts look like? [❗FOR ALL INVESTORS: Urgent Election Video]( Our Director of Customer Service just recorded this urgent video regarding the U.S. election. As a dedicated investor, it’s crucial you watch this video as soon as possible. Because we have received insight into the future of the election, and it does not fare well for the average investor’s portfolio. [Watch This Urgent Election Video Now]( Silver, Technically On Friday, we finally had our breakout. It was a long time coming. The blue line in the above chart represents the former resistance level of $32.40-50. Since its trough in February 2024, silver rose steadily to hit that level in May, threatening to break through it at any moment. Alas, it wasn’t to be. It took until the end of September to reach that resistance level again, hitting it a few times at the beginning of October before finally breaking through it decisively on Friday. The second green candle in the purple box is this morning’s trading in Europe (and Asia). We’re now above $34.10. This is a powerful buy signal. I now expect the $32.50 area to form support for any pullbacks we may have shortly. My Portfolio With Some New Tickers [In the October 10th Rude]( I told you about my portfolio holdings. They were as follows: First Majestic (AG), Avino Silver and Gold (ASM), Coeur Mining (CDE), Endeavor Silver (EXK), Hecla (HL), Kinross Gold (KGC), Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), and SilverCrest (SILV). Click the above link to see the charts and my explanations. They’ve all performed well lately, and CDE and SILV even merged. I’ve added a few more to my portfolio, which Matt Insley, Dan Amoss, and I discussed on Friday’s edition of Rickards Uncensored. They are Integra Resources Corp (ITR.V), Orogen Royalties (OGN.V), and Orla Mining, Ltd. (ORLA). Later today, I’ll buy AbraSilver Resources (ABRA.V). Integra Resources Corp (ITR.V) This is a new pick from Rick Rule, and he’s one to listen to. It just broke out, and I can see it hitting CAD 2.40 in the short term. But there’s much more upside to be had. Orogen Royalties (OGN.V) This was Rick Rule’s pick back at the 2023 Paradigm Shift Conference in Las Vegas. When he recommended the stock, it was trading at $0.60. Now, it’s a dollar higher, with a beautiful uptrending chart. I briefly sold it but then realized my mistake, which cost me a few cents. Orla Mining, Ltd. (ORLA) This trade idea came from the guys over at Northstar Charts. They sent out a possible breakout alert, and it indeed broke out above the $4.50 level. My short-term price target is $7.50. AbraSilver Resources (ABRA.V) This was another Friday breakout from a zone it couldn’t seem to free itself from. In the short term, I expect the price to double. I had been watching ABRA.V for a while because I knew it was one of Sprott’s most significant holdings. But I wanted to be sure, and now I am. Credit: [@num8ersguy]( How Much of Your Portfolio? First, always speak to your financial advisor if you have one. If not, it’s worth looking into. If you’re new to metals investing, you can allocate as little as 5% of your portfolio to it. But remember, between 75-91% of your returns come from the asset classes you’re invested in, not your ability to pick stock. And right now, metals is the place to be. I’ve allocated much more because I’m swinging for the fences. This is one of those times we won’t see again for another 20 years. However, this is what I’m doing, not necessarily what you should be doing. It’s for educational purposes, a look-over-my-shoulder exercise rather than financial advice. Wrap Up If you haven’t jumped on the silver train, I’d get on very quickly. It’ll be moving faster rather than slower in the coming weeks. You risk seeing this if you stay out. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… We’re Screwed If We Don’t Do the Math SEAN RING It’s a supreme irony that the day after I write about The Starlink Skyway in the [Morning Reckoning]( a storm knocks out my internet. Since it only popped on about thirty minutes ago, I can’t offer you anything original. But I’ve got something better for you today. Subscribers have called the below piece the “most useful thing” I’ve ever written. (This edition has minor improvements.) It’s universal and still applicable. Quite frankly, knowing this stuff has changed my life. If it merely improves how you think about some things, I’ll be thrilled for you. For new subscribers, this may be a revelation that blows their heads clean off. For long-time Rude friends, it’ll be a good refresher. Onward! We’re Screwed If We Don’t Do the Math Most economists agree that there’s an inverse relationship between women’s literacy and birth rates. Economists concluded that the more women read (and are educated), the less they want children. I’ve always thought that conclusion didn’t match reality. I believe the more women can do the math, the fewer children they want (for lifestyle reasons). That is, numeracy, rather than literacy, drives decision-making. There are many examples of career women who can afford – and have – more children. Sara Blakely, Victoria Beckham, and Amy Coney Barrett come to mind. But this column isn’t about demographics. It’s about innumeracy, which we’ll define as incompetence with numbers. It’s what I think society’s big problem is. Instead of dwelling on the causes, symptoms, and cures of innumeracy, I'm here to equip you with a few straightforward rules of thumb. These rules are designed to be simple and easy to apply, empowering you to take control of your financial decisions. You can use them to see if your decision-making changes. For me, these simple equations and rules provided a clear target. They allowed me to gauge my progress and understand how far I needed to go to reach my financial goals. I'm confident they can do the same for you, providing a practical and reliable guide for your financial decisions. I won’t bombard you today, as the fewer and the simpler, the better. So, let’s start with five simple rules to see if they change how you think. The Rule of 72 The Rule of 72 is one you’ve probably heard of. And you might be wondering why I’d even include such a rule. Let me first state the rule, and then we’ll talk about how to use it. For most people, the Rule of 72 tells them how long it will take to double their money if they invest it at a constant rate of return. For example, if you earn 10% per year on your portfolio, it will take 72/10 or 7.2 years to double it. If you wanted to back out the math, assume you had a $100,000 portfolio. $100,000.00 x (1 + 0.10) ^ 7.2 = $198,622 The Rule of 72 isn’t perfect. But near enough is good enough in this case. If a superstar financial advisor earns you 20% per year, it’ll only take 3.6 years to double your portfolio. Now, let’s use this rule to look at inflation… something the USG doesn’t want you to do. Historically, central banks have tried to keep interest rates around 2%. That meant a currency lost half its purchasing power in 72/2 or 36 years. You’d barely notice the loss in purchasing power, as it’d take so long to rear its ugly head. You’d probably go to the grocery store and wonder why eggs are “suddenly” double what they used to cost in 1983. We’ve all done something like that, haven’t we? However, with inflation hitting 10% as it had a year or two ago, a currency loses half its value in only 72/10 or 7.2 years. Realistically speaking, let’s say Chairman Pow comes out and says, “We’d love rates to go back down to 2%, but that’s just not realistic. We’re now happy with a 4% target.” In that case, the dollar would lose half its purchasing power in 72/4 or 18 years. If you think eggs are expensive now, just wait until 2044! The Rule of 72 is a great way to examine returns and purchasing power erosion. Net Worth Indicator This is a great targeting mechanism, and I regrettably only just found it. It’s from The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko. Multiply your age times your realized pretax annual household income from all sources except inheritances. Divide by ten. This, less any inherited wealth, is what your net worth should be. If you hit this number, you’re an AAW or average accumulator of wealth. According to the authors, to be considered a PAW, or prodigious accumulator of wealth, you “should” have at least twice this number. What I like about this indicator is that it’s simple to calculate and gives you a target. Full disclosure: I’m a UAW, which means I’m an under-accumulator of wealth. But I won’t use this number to feel bad. I choose to think bigger and get better results. If you’re unhappy with what this number tells you, I suggest you do the same. Julian H. wrote in with this great question about the formula: I'm familiar with The Millionaire Next Door book and have always wondered what the logic behind the formula age x income / 10 is. Do you have any knowledge about that? There are no specifications in the book, and I can't find anything valuable on the Internet. Thanks in advance. Best. Julian H. Julian, as far as I can see, this formula is produced with linear regression. The authors took net worth, age, and income and produced a line of best fit. The 50-30-20 Rule Tweaked The 50-30-20 Rule is a popular budgeting strategy that can help you manage your monthly paycheck effectively. It suggests allocating your income into three categories: needs, debt repayment, and future investment. It’s super simple: - 50% of your income goes to paying your “needs.” These include rent or mortgage payments, car payments, groceries, insurance, health care, minimum debt payments, and utilities. - 30% of your income goes to paying down your debt. Once that’s done, these become discretionary entertainment expenses.* - 20% of your income goes to future investment. *In the original formulation, 30% go to your “wants.” That’s fine, but paying down your debt to zero takes priority. I couldn’t believe how fast my debt disappeared. It took about six to twelve months, but it was gone—and gone for good. I’ve only run a monthly credit card balance once or twice in the last twenty years, and it’s thanks to this little system. [Biden Admin Furious Over This New “Alternative” Currency]( Take a close look at this photo: [What you see here is a new “alternative” currency that’s taking America by storm…]( One which could ruin Biden’s CBDC plans. It’s already popping across the nation… including Utah, New Hampshire and Nevada. [If you’re worried about Biden Bucks then you must watch this short 2-minute video where Jim Rickards breaks down how this “alternative” currency works…]( [Click Here To Learn More]( 3x Rule for Buying a House Another one I love, and that would keep many rich people out of trouble, let alone those of lesser means. Never spend more than three times your gross annual income on a house. I bought the house I currently live in using this rule. My down payment was ready and didn’t empty my account, and my monthly payments are easily manageable. Far too many people only calculate what their monthly payments would be at the current rate of their mortgage. But if you’ve got an adjustable-rate mortgage, that could quickly end in tears. There’s no need to overpay for a McMansion. The Normal Distribution (Bell Curve) Finally, we get to simple probabilities. Again, this is just a rule of thumb. Nothing in finance is “normal.” But this can help you distinguish investing realism from fantasy. Let’s give an example. Let’s say Stock ABC has earned, on average, 5% per year. But that return is accomplished with a standard deviation around that 5% average of 2%. If we assume normal returns – a dangerous thing in finance, but we do it all the time – then ABC has a 68% chance of returning between 3% and 7%. It has a 95.6% chance of returning between 1% and 9%. And it has a 99.7% chance of returning between -1% and 11%. Here’s the thing, though: it certainly can crash far below a -1% return. It may moonshot 45% of the FDA's approval of its new drug, especially if my friend and colleague Ray Blanco put it on his list! But the probability of either of those scenarios happening is very low. Knowing this distribution is essential for setting investor expectations and gauging the market's opinion of a potential investment. If you can adjust your thinking to being more probabilistic, you’ll be shocked at how different the world looks. Wrap Up The absolute last thing I wanted to do was to patronize you. But I also don’t want to assume you know things you may not know. So I hope that, at the very worst, this was just a refresher on things you may have put on the back burner. But if there is a lot of new material here, I can’t encourage you enough to deploy this new knowledge as early and as often as possible. If you’d like to see more of this, please let me know here. And if you found this the least bit unhelpful, do let me know that as well. I’ll see you on Monday when it’s back to regularly scheduled programming! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [UPDATE PREFERENCES]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. 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