The Stars Align Over Wall Street

Silver’s Full Moon Breakout [Morning Reckoning] October 15, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( The Stars Align Over Wall Street Baltimore, Maryland October 15, 2024 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, I’m not superstitious. I don’t cross my fingers or avoid stepping on cracks in the sidewalk. I don’t turn my baseball cap inside out to help my team eke out a win in extra innings (RIP Orioles World Series hopes). And I certainly don’t wear a lucky pair of socks to help improve my trading results. Yet despite my focus on price and all things real and tangible on my stock charts, it would be foolish to completely discount many of the natural phenomena that infiltrate our minds and lead us to irrational decisions. We’re only human. As much as we try to fight it, we’re inexorably linked to nature – the sun, tides, moon, and weather. Yes, these so-called outside influences can have very real effects on our emotions and decision-making… Let’s also not forget how seasonal trends can shape the markets. I’ve written at length about how strong first-half performances like we saw earlier this year can lead to explosive melt-up moves during the fourth quarter. Of course, there’s no rock-solid guarantee stocks will streak higher into January 2025. But the stack of evidence in favor of an end-of-year rally is getting higher by the day. And while I wouldn’t use seasonality as the sole reason to buy or sell a stock, it can be a helpful guidepost for mapping out your potential trading decisions and how you view overall market conditions. When it comes to the unpredictable nature of trading, I’ll take all the help I can get — even if that means turning to some of the more unconventional approaches… [Your Credit Card: Declined?]( [Click here to learn more]( Take a moment and picture this scenario: The line at the gas pump is getting longer as you insert your credit card for the second time. It’s not just you. Everyone is declined. Something doesn’t seem right. A sinking feeling sets in as you realize something has gone terribly wrong. [Click here now for an urgent new prediction from a former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon.]( [LEARN MORE]( Signs from Above The turning of the seasons, the sun, the moon, and religious holidays were swirling in my head late last week as I stepped outside to take a nighttime walk around my neighborhood. While the news might have seemed quiet in the aftermath of the second major hurricane in as many weeks, a lot was happening in the natural world. A series of solar flares had just sparked a massive geomagnetic storm, supposedly making the northern lights visible well into the southern US. I had to check it out for myself, so I made the trek to an area of my neighborhood that was (mostly) free of street lights to try to catch a glimpse of this southern miracle. I did notice some faint colors, but nothing quite as spectacular as this image shared by a friend who lives several miles north of us on a sleepy country road: Is this spectacular light show somehow forecasting an equally impressive stock market melt-up? I know that sounds a bit silly. Just bear with me… During my silent neighborhood walk, I realized the stars were literally aligning for a strong year-end push. Solar flares and coiled charts. What could be better? It’s easy to scoff at these natural wonders and how they affect our behavior. Yet we have no trouble referencing Keynes’ animal spirits when discussing the ebbs and flows of the markets. What about the conclusion of the Jewish holiday season? The old Wall Street adage “Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur” has been a timely way to avoid fall volatility. (Yom Kippur concluded over the weekend, by the way…) Or, what if the moon is forecasting an imminent, rip-roaring rally in silver? Believe it or not, there are more than a few successful investors taking advantage of these lunar patterns… Gold’s Crazy Cousin Has a Secret I wonder how many precious metal bulls know Silver likes to dance in the moonlight. It might sound crazy. But when silver futures trade within a markup phase, the full moon occurs at key pivot lows (the dip), highlighting excellent buying opportunities. It was clear as day to the savvy investor paying attention to the lunar cycle earlier this spring. Silver’s rally into the May pivot high was bound to fail. On the flip side, a new moon signals an extended rally due for a near-term correction. When silver ripped higher following the May 7th new moon – the opposite of what one would expect during a rally – the clock began ticking for the bulls. Silver peaked less than two weeks later. Perhaps Silver needs the spotlight, or maybe investors just need a little help from the heavens when it comes to reaching for additional risk. I’ll let the behavioral economists uncover the root cause. For us speculators, the existence of the relationship and the pattern it creates provides all we need – an edge. Fast forward today, and investors are adjusting to a burgeoning everything rally. Plus, silver is catching toward those May highs just as the moon and silver market are falling into sync ahead of Thursday’s supermoon. Regardless of whether you trade silver, consider the words of legendary trader Larry Williams, Any market that can’t get moving when these strong influences [full moon] are being exerted is not a very healthy market. The Breakout List Gets Longer Investors are nervous about the upcoming election, inflation data, and what the Fed has up its sleeve as the new rate cut regime takes hold. But under the surface, the markets are turning the page. Some of the most explosive stocks and sectors are setting up for potentially powerful end-of-year runs. I’ve been talking about it for weeks! The fuse is now lit for stock market melt-up. Once you cut through the noise, you’ll find silver isn’t the only area in the market ready to rip. Tech stocks are on the move, along with software names and even some of the forgotten pandemic trades. I’m sure many of these names ring a bell. MicroStrategy (MSTR), Palantir (PLTR), Palo Alto Networks (PANW). These were the stocks on everyone’s watchlist following the Covid lockdown. Remember Datadog (DDOG)? After bottoming in the spring of 2020, it ripped 525% into its 2021 peak! Fast forward a few years, and it feels like the market is entering a similar environment. Palantir (PLTR) is printing new all-time highs and triple-digit returns (up 149%) after completing a multi-year base. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is slicing through resistance, up 191% year-to-date. And Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is on the verge of breaking out. More and more tech stocks are popping up as I scan the markets… tickers I haven’t considered buying in years. These breakouts are as real as it gets… But remember, we’re still dealing with the markets and the unpredictable nature of trading. Many of the concepts I’ve talked about today are unconventional, or even far fetched. We’re only human. Our minds, nature, and other outside forces will always lead us into irrational decisions. Right now, the market, along with the sun, moon, and stars, are hinting that investors are about to lose all inhibitions. Don’t let the melt up catch you off guard. Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [[Claim Your $1 Copy Today] Jim Rickards Endorses New Book From Top Hedge Fund Titan!]( [Click here to learn more]( [>> Click Here Now To Claim Your Special $1 Book Offer <<]( [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Bout Bites Biden in the Butt Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, “It’s only a few AK-47s!” will one day be up there with “I only had one!” Let me explain. Chick Baller Arrested For Pot in Russia When Griner was arrested in Russia in 2022, I wrote a Rude Awakening piece called “[From Russia with Mowie Wowie]( I thought it’d be fun to write about two things I don’t give a toss about: cannabis and women’s sports. I presciently concluded that article with this wrap-up (bolds mine): My guess is Griner will be released early. Moscow and DC will get to a prisoner swap deal eventually. Griner may suffer some more in Russian prisons, but she won’t be there for long. In the meantime, I hope America’s diplomats get working on far more critical things. Like putting out all the fires their President and Speaker of the House have started. “Moscow and DC will get to a prisoner swap deal eventually.” But little did I know, it would turn out to be the most ill-advised prisoner swap in diplomatic history, with potentially perilous consequences. The Trade Viktor Bout, nicknamed The Merchant of Death, whose life inspired the Nicholas Cage movie The Lord of War, was traded for weed-inhaling, America-hating, chick hoops “star” Britney Griner just under two years ago. It was a deal many called at the time the “Herschel Walker trade of diplomatic history.” I wrote a Rude Awakening piece the week this idiotic trade happened titled, “[Russian Agents Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Cyanide Capsule!]( The news left me in a state of utter disbelief. The only thing that mitigated my shock was the fact that it was Joe Biden’s misguided brainchild. I can’t believe I quoted the now-disgraced, but always-disgraceful, former US Senator from the corrupt state of New Jersey, Bob Menedez. But I did, and here it is: Clearly suffering from a bout of common sense, Senator Bob Menendez, D-N.J., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said there is no equivalence "between the Brittney Griners of the world and people like Viktor Bout." More from Menendez, via Fox News: “Nothing could be further from the truth, and we cannot ignore that releasing Bout back into the world is a deeply disturbing decision. We must stop inviting dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans overseas as bargaining chips, and we must try to do better at encouraging American citizens against traveling to places like Russia where they are primary targets for this type of unlawful detention.” I agreed with Menendez at the time, and I still do. The Lord of War If you’re still unsure who Viktor Bout is and why he’s so important, let me tell you. I think it’s fair to say Viktor Bout (pronounced Boot) is an amoral logistics expert. He doesn’t care about the guns, ammo, or anything else he’s shipping. Bout is an excellent businessman who specializes in transporting contraband. He also exacerbated conflicts all over Africa. But that didn’t—and doesn’t—matter one bit to him. And that’s what makes him so dangerous. Bout’s qualifications aren’t disputed. At the time, I wrote: But why would Vladimir Putin and his cronies want Bout - who specialized in shipping arms around Africa - out of prison? It seems fishy to me until you read those headlines. It’s worth noting that Bout also stole $32 billion worth of weaponry from Ukraine between 1992 and 1998. It may have taken a while, but Bout’s words to The New Yorker proved correct: “They will try to lock me up for life,” Bout told me. “But I’ll get back to Russia. I don’t know when. But I’m still young. Your empire will collapse, and I’ll get out of here.” Perhaps the USG thinks he’s going to retire. But if I were Bout, the first thing I’d say to Putin is, “Thank you, Comrade President. What can I do for you?” And then, I’d get the band back together. Because Russian agents now know the Kremlin won’t forget you. No cyanide pill is required. Just keep your mouth shut, and you’ll be home one day. I wrapped up that article with this (bolds mine): I’m happy Griner is out of prison. No one deserves nine days, let alone years, in jail for vaping weed oil. That she hates America isn’t germane to the conversation. She’s got a passport and, therefore, the right to her government’s help. But trading her for Viktor Bout? Insanity. Expect an article, when we least expect it, detailing all the gunrunning Bout has started doing again at the behest of Vladimir Putin. Politicians are always in it for the quick win and rarely, if ever, think down the road. That goes double for 80-year-old Joke Biden. Always beware of an old man in a hurry. It’s times like these that I’m amazed that anyone is amazed by an obvious conclusion. How’s It Going? Well, let’s see: Credit: [The Wall Street Journal]( [The Journal]( writes (bolds mine): Since his release, Bout has joined a pro-Kremlin far-right party and won a seat in a local assembly in 2023, seemingly turning the page on his days as an arms broker. But when Houthi emissaries went to Moscow in August to negotiate the purchase of $10 million worth of automatic weapons, they encountered a familiar face: the mustachioed Bout, according to a European security official and other people familiar with the matter. The potential arms transfers, which have yet to be delivered, stop well short of the sale of Russian anti-ship or antiair missiles that could pose a significant threat to the U.S. military’s efforts to protect international shipping from the Houthis’ attacks. The Biden administration has been worried that Russia might provide the Houthis with such advanced weapons to retaliate for Washington’s support of Ukraine, but there is no evidence that those missiles have been sent, or that Bout is involved in such a deal. Still, even small arms shipments to the Houthis would be opposed by Washington, which has designated the Yemen militants as a terrorist group. The only newspaper I can see disputing The Journal’s story that Bout is back in the business is the South China Morning Post. Of course, Bout himself denied the story in [TASS]( "The article’s allegations are baseless; it’s just a flash in the information field," Bout said. According to him, the [Journal] "long ago shifted from being a strictly economic outlet, traditionally covering financial and economic matters, to becoming a biased political media. We know this particularly from the case of Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter who was caught red-handed and arrested in [the Russian city of] Yekaterinburg. It was proved during the trial that he had acted under cover and collected intelligence for the CIA while working for the newspaper. This is why reports by such media outlets should be viewed primarily through the prism of who the report benefits and what news hook it seeks to create.” The Journal could’ve gotten it wrong. After all, their sources are flimsy. But Bout (and Russia) could be lying about it, too. Of course, if Potatohead Biden hadn’t released him, we wouldn’t be discussing this. Wrap Up On days like this, I feel vindicated. From Day One, it was obvious that the Biden Administration's decision to release Bout was an unforced error. It was also obvious that one day, Bout would get back to doing what he does best. After all, you don’t leave your ace on the bench for long. If need be, he pitches Games 1, 3, 5, and 7. And Viktor Bout is an ace up Vladimir Putin’s sleeve. It’s only a few AK-47s anyway… All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. 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