Dark Horses: From Truman to Trumpala

New podcast drop! September 10, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( New podcast drop. Plus, don’t miss Davis Wilson’s (bearish) take on Palantir (PLTR) below. Dark Horses: From Truman to Trumpala JAMES ALTUCHER Dear Reader, They called it “peanut politics.” Imagine running for president with no money to afford hotels, staying in strangers’ homes on the campaign trail, making the bed in the morning, and leaving a thank-you note. That’s the level of grit Carter had. He was the anti-establishment candidate before it was trendy. And yet, despite the simplicity of his methods, he won. In 1976, Jimmy Carter was an unknown. No one saw him coming. By 1974, Carter was a one-term governor of Georgia, and yet two years later, he became the 39th president of the United States. In a field of Democratic heavyweights—Ted Kennedy, Mo Udall, Jerry Brown—Carter's rise was an anomaly, the type of dark horse that defies expectation. Here’s the crazy part: Carter didn’t win Iowa. He came second to “undecided.” Yet, through sheer force of will (and a little media magic), Carter spun that second-place finish into victory. In this week’s podcast, I sat down with David Rubenstein to discuss his book, The Highest Calling, where he dives into the lives of U.S. presidents—from George Washington to George W. Bush. Rubenstein’s deep dive into presidential history reveals a powerful truth: history rewrites its heroes. And nowhere is this clearer than with Jimmy Carter. Today, when people think of Carter, they see the man who brokered peace at Camp David, the humanitarian who’s spent decades building homes with Habitat for Humanity. But in 1980, the general consensus was that Carter failed as a president. The economy faltered, the Iran hostage crisis consumed headlines, and he left office with a dismal approval rating. Yet, much like Harry Truman—who was loathed when he left office but later hailed as a hero—Carter’s legacy is being re-examined. As Rubenstein pointed out, if you look at Congressional Quarterly, Carter passed as much legislation as any president before him. Yet, he got crushed for what he couldn’t do. Here’s the first lesson: what we think of presidents today is rarely how they’ll be remembered tomorrow. Take Lincoln, for example. Today, Abraham Lincoln is a revered figure—the great emancipator, the president who preserved the Union. But in his time, Lincoln was a long-shot candidate, an Illinois lawyer who had lost more elections than he had won. His 1860 nomination surprised many, especially since he wasn’t even on the ballot in most Southern states. But it was his persistence and his ability to outmaneuver his rivals at the Republican convention in Chicago that won him the nomination. Rubenstein shared that each president he studied was deeply flawed in some way. Jefferson, a man who wrote the immortal words “all men are created equal,” was a slave owner with a complex, often contradictory legacy. FDR, the president who led America through the Great Depression and World War II, was idolized, yet he made decisions that today are condemned—like the internment of Japanese Americans. But here’s another lesson: we, as a society, often fall in love with the idea of presidents. We idolize them because their biographers do. Rubenstein mentioned that when Doris Kearns Goodwin spent ten years writing about Lincoln, she inevitably grew fond of him. It’s impossible to spend that much time with someone—even someone dead—and not romanticize them. Rubenstein suggests that’s why so many presidents are written about with such reverence. Biographers, like all of us, fall for the charisma, the power, the larger-than-life personas. In his book, Rubenstein doesn’t just profile presidents; he dissects the stories we tell about them. Why do some presidents, like Lincoln, get mythologized, while others, like Hoover, are forgotten? Hoover is fascinating because while he's often remembered for the Great Depression, Rubenstein reminded me that Hoover did work post-presidency, advising on government efficiency and helping with famine relief in Europe. But perhaps the most interesting part of our conversation was Rubenstein’s take on the current political landscape. He said that while the presidency remains the highest calling, the polarization of today’s politics has made it nearly impossible for anyone to be seen as a unifying figure. He believes we’re more divided than ever—something echoed by almost every president he interviewed for the book. Yet, Rubenstein’s book isn’t just about presidents; it’s about the power of history to change our perceptions. Carter, Hoover, Truman—they were all seen as failures in their time. But history is kind. And who knows? Maybe in 50 years, the same will be said about the presidents we love to criticize today. What’s the lesson here? History isn’t a snapshot; it’s a long, drawn-out story, constantly edited and revised by those who come after. For better or worse. There’s much more ground to cover on this front… [Here’s the full podcast](. Give it a listen. Also, don’t miss my Paradigm colleague Davis Wilson’s take on Palantir (PLTR) below. Read on. BOMBSHELL: Apple Creates New A.I. Chip… To Rival Nvidia?! Take a close look at this A.I. chip pictured in my hands… While 99% of investors are focused on the popular A.I. chipmakers like Nvidia… [There’s quietly a much bigger story taking place behind the scenes…]( It involves Apple, the world’s second largest company… And [a bombshell announcement]( that could change how you think about A.I. forever. [Click here now for the urgent details](. Palantir - Next Victim of the S&P 500 “Inclusion Effect” DAVIS WILSON Palantir will be added to the S&P 500 on September 23rd. The stock spiked on the news yesterday, closing higher by 14%. Palantir will be joined by Dell Technologies and Erie Insurance, whose stock prices saw similar spikes yesterday. The price increases coincide with what’s known as the “S&P 500 inclusion effect.” This describes the tendency for a stock's price to spike on news that it will join a widely followed benchmark, like the S&P 500, only to stagnate following the addition. The rationale here is simple: roughly $16 trillion in assets directly or indirectly tracks the S&P 500. Yes, trillion. In short, the best way for the managers of this $16 trillion to accurately track the S&P 500 is to buy shares in all underlying assets. As of September 23rd, Palantir, Dell, and Erie will be on that list of underlying assets. Looking more specifically at Palantir, even if it’s assigned a tiny weight in the index (say 0.1%), 0.1% of $16 trillion is still a big number. That’s a lot of newfound demand for the stock, hence why it spiked 14% higher yesterday. Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the inclusion effect doesn’t last long. After being included into the index, stocks typically stagnate or trade lower. There’s a few different reasons for this. The two primary reasons are: - Due to the rules regulating inclusion into the S&P 500, new stocks have typically already seen significant price appreciation. Palantir is higher year-to-date by 102%, making continued short-term gains more difficult. - The price spikes on inclusion announcement dates have proven so lucrative (14% for Palantir yesterday) that much of the upside gets priced in on announcement day, also making continued short-term gains difficult. It’s important to note that Palantir’s underlying earnings haven’t changed. Just a new wave of buyers have stepped in to push the price (and more importantly valuation) higher. A good recent example is Tesla. Standard & Poor’s announced it would add Tesla to the S&P 500 on November 16, 2020. Between that moment and when it was added on December 18th, the stock shot up over 50%. Once added to the index, it immediately became the fifth largest stock in the S&P 500. Then, shortly after being added to the index, Tesla’s stock price went nowhere. In fact, the stock is lower today than back in late 2020. Certainly other factors have impacted Tesla’s stock since inclusion into the S&P 500. But the 50% run-up in anticipation of its addition to the S&P 500 certainly made the stock expensive, limiting its upside. Palantir is likely a similar story. The stock trades at 200x earnings. It trades at 80x next year’s earnings. As bullish as I am on artificial intelligence, I can’t support Palantir’s current sky-high valuation. So while the funds that track the S&P 500 have no choice but to buy PLTR stock at this high valuation, you, on the other hand, certainly do have a choice. There are plenty of AI stocks with high growth potential trading at reasonable valuations. After yesterday’s price spike, Palantir isn’t one of them. Best, Davis Wilson For Altucher Confidential Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. Offer Pending: Please confirm your address… Your name is on a list of people eligible to claim the [“most dangerous book in America.”]( We with only 500 copies left, we may run out of stock soon. So, here’s how to claim your copy: - [Click this link]( watch Jim's short message.]( - Review your account information. - Confirm you’d like to accept Jim’s offer. And I’ll get your copy of the most dangerous book in the mail right away. [Simply click here and learn how to claim your copy.]( ☰ ⊗ [UPDATE PREFERENCES]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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