Pre-Election Everything Rally!

Equities, bonds, commodities, and real estate are humming along. September 03, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Pre-Election Everything Rally! SEAN RING August 2024 Monthly Asset Class Report I’ll go to my grave thinking Jay Powell should’ve cut rates in June and removed himself from the political stage. But some people just can’t help themselves, and Jay stayed his hand. As the September FOMC meeting rapidly approaches, it looks like he will finally cut 25 bps from the US base rate. While it won’t do much economically, it will goose traders’ expectations and make the bots buy faster than you can say “algorithm!” The stage is set for a mini-rally anyway, as Friday gave us some lovely numbers for the holiday weekend. Personal income was slightly up, while the core PCE index was softer than expected. The Chicago PMI was stronger than expected, while consumer sentiment was just below the consensus estimate. We know the economic numbers are nonsense, especially after the BLS revised nonfarm payrolls downward by 818,000 jobs. But that’s okay. Everyone’s dealing with the same nonsense. And so starts the rally. Most people are looking for a recession, but I don’t think you’ll find it here. As it’s September, the traders will return to work, and the junior varsity will return to getting coffee. The first-team players may see some buying opportunities their counterparts missed. Sell NVDA? Crazy. Do you think the market’s overcooked? It may be wobbly, but we’ve just closed on a monthly all-time high for the S&P 500. And how about gold? Still over $2,500. Ain’t that grand. Let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 ***New Monthly Closing High of 5,648.40.*** The SPX rose roughly 120 points to establish a new monthly closing record of 5,648.40. I just don’t know how anyone can want to get short right now. The problem with brilliant people is they see far into the future. Too far, by half. Sure, there will be a day to sell, but it’s not today, and I don’t think it’ll be anytime soon. I still target 6,000. Nasdaq Composite Even the allegedly beleaguered Nasdaq closed up 200 points on the month. Of course, I’ll feel much better once we establish new all-time highs. But for now, we’re only 1,000 points away from there. Percentage-wise, it’s not all that much. Russell 2000 (Small caps) The Russell had a terrible first week of August but nearly recovered all its losses. It finished the month down less than 4 points, which is a major victory. As the small caps are holding up, this bodes well for the rest of the stock market. The US 10-Year Yield We indeed fell another 12 basis points this month in the 10-year. The 10-year fell slightly lower than that but found a floor at 3.80%. Much of where the 10-year goes depends on the upcoming cuts from Jay Powell and friends. Dollar Index The dollar index fell out of bed this month before recovering in the last week of August. Still, a fall from 104.36 to 101.62 is nothing to sneeze at. This goosed stocks and bonds, but not crypto, surprisingly. The yen and euro seem strong, thanks to central bank action. USG Bonds Grabbed another few points this month. The target remains 99. Investment Grade Bonds From two months ago: If we clear 109, we can retest the 132 level. Scary, but possible. We have now cleared; off we go to 132. The next target after that is 146. High Yield Bonds Again, from last month: Junk continues its ascent. I’m looking at 79 as the next upside target. That still stands, too, but our new upside target is 85. Real Estate You have [(1) item]( on hold at our warehouse: Item #: [51987]( Status: On hold Value: Approx. $300 Claim by date: MIDNIGHT TONIGHT To see how to claim yours simply [click here]( our Head of Customer Experience will show you what you need to do. [Click Here To Learn More]( After another positive month, VNQ was up about 5.5%. The target is now 116. Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil) Even on a weaker dollar, oil is getting hammered. I thought we’d turn it around, and that still may happen. But it certainly hasn’t happened yet. From 77.91 to 73.55, it was a terrible place to be in August. Perhaps if the Fed cuts rates this month, we’ll see a rally start to form. Base Metals: Copper We had a nice recovery this month. I’m still erring to the downside, though I think we’re close to, or at the beginning of, the next big commodities cycle. For now, the big downside price target is $2.25. But I’m hoping the ascent continues. Precious Metals: Gold ***HIGHEST MONTHLY CLOSE OF 2,527.60*** From last month: $2,609 is still the next target. But beyond that, we’re now looking at $2,759. With the Fed set to cut rates before inflation has been slain, I think we’re still nearer the beginning of a bull market than at an end. Precious Metals: Silver Silver performed much better in August, but we still need to get above $33 to get excited. Cryptos: Bitcoin Despite Bitcoin's recent downturn, I maintain a bullish outlook. I reiterate my target of $100,000 by January 2026, and I see the current consolidation pattern as a potential precursor to a breakout. This could be a nice consolidation pattern here. Let’s see which way it breaks out. Cryptos: Ether Ether has broken down. I’m unsure what the problem is, but ETH is considerably weaker than BTC. We could see ETH hit $1,950 from here. Trad Asset Class Summary This month, the big loser was the USD, following last month’s downer. The SPX and commodities did well, up 3.70% and 1.26%, respectively. The long bond was as flat as a pancake, moving up only 18 basis points. Crypto Class Summary Crypto had another stinker this month. Only Monero, the most secretive coin, was up this month. Bitcoin, Doge, and Ether were the three biggest losers, with ETH down over 20%. Wrap Up The party is far from over. In fact, Jay Powell is about to bring the punch bowl back out. So participate. We’re not at the end yet. We’re still in moneymaking mode. Enjoy it while it lasts. Finally, let’s take a moment, courtesy of the Twitterverse: Have a wonderful day! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… I published this last Thursday in the Morning Reckoning. But I’d never deprive my Rude Remnant of such an important piece. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. One last thing: the Monthly Asset Class Report will be in your inbox tomorrow. As the office is closed today, there was no way of getting it written after Friday’s close in time to get it to you this morning. SR A Philosophy For Life SEAN RING When scrolling through X (formerly Twitter), I usually hunt for juicy financial, economic, or political information that will inspire a newsletter piece. Last night, I came across a person I had never met who wrote the most immediately helpful thread I’ve ever seen. This thread was so brilliant that I created a bookmark list called “Best Advice” so I would never lose it. I knew right away that I must share it with you. But before I do, let’s meet our contestants. [Tim Denning]( a blogger with 77,000 followers, published the list I’m about to show you from Kevin Kelly, a confidante of Tim Ferriss. I didn’t know who Denning or Kelly was, but I’m a big fan of Tim Ferriss. I found all of Ferriss’ books helpful. Kevin Kelly is one of Tim’s friends and is, in his own right, an excellent writer and futurist. He is the founding executive editor of Wired magazine. His chapter in Ferriss’ Tool of Titans didn’t hit me that hard when I read it. Now, I think the man is a genius. After you read this, you’ll probably feel the same way. Now, let’s delve into Kevin Kelly’s unique philosophy of life, a perspective that is sure to intrigue you. 1. “Don’t take it personally when someone turns you down. Assume they are like you: busy, occupied, distracted. Try again later.” Right off the bat, we’ve got a huge winner. Jim Camp, of negotiation fame, wants his clients or negotiating adversaries to say “No.” That way, he knew where the negotiation boundaries were. When you’re always trying to “get to yes,” you’re not living in your client’s world. You’re living in your world. But more than that, you become more tenacious when you get used to hearing no. There’s always something more to talk about. And that’s how deals get done. Indeed, try again later. 2. "Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists." My good friend, colleague, and Paradigm’s options expert Alan Knuckman constantly hammers me with this. And I must admit, he’s right. It’s changed my way of thinking when it comes to trading and investing. I’m not as jittery. I have faith that things will turn out alright. Now, that doesn’t mean you should ignore danger signs. But it does mean you probably won’t overreact to bad news. That’s an essential skill when the U.S. markets tend to go up over time. It would have been a different story if we had been in Japan over the last 35 years. 3. "The purpose of a habit is to remove that action from self-negotiation." Think of it like this: a habit is an algorithm. The point of creating one is to automate a process. If you do something enough times, your mind automates it into a habit. Then you don’t have to “decide” to do it anymore. Decision fatigue is a huge energy suck. Now, you can create the habits you want by repeating positive actions and turning them into uplifting algorithms that’ll happen like magic. 4. "Perhaps the most counter-intuitive truth of the universe is that the more you give to others, the more you’ll get.” Imagine. Manifest. Share. That’s the magic formula. Everyone imagines. We all daydream about how things could be. Some take that forward by manifesting whatever that product or service is. We physically bring it from the inside to the outside of our heads, from our brains to the real world. Then, we share, sell, or barter what we made with other people. The more you do that, the more you’ll get. 5. “You don’t want to be famous.” Luckily, I got this one early. I always wondered why people wanted other people to follow them around snapping pictures all the livelong day. Kelly suggests reading the biography of any famous person. You may not like what you read. Kelly also says you can’t hit the reset button once you have fame. The attention you should seek should be from your loved ones, not some strangers in a parking lot snapping pictures of you. 6. "Most amazing or great things are done by people doing them for the first time." If you’re running a business, Kevin thinks you should hire people based on their natural abilities and then train them for the skills needed to be good at the job. If their mindset is right (growth), the rest is teachable. 7. "Almost anything money can do, friends can do better. In so many ways, a friend with a boat is better than owning a boat." Hear! Hear! Money is great, but what you can experience with the boys, girls… or posse… is much better than counting the gold in your vault. Your “stuff” won’t matter in your dying hours, but your friends and memories will. 8. "Being enthusiastic is worth 25 IQ points." I’d add, “Being a Negative Nancy is worth minus 25 IQ points.” Enthusiasm makes you optimistic, and we talked about that above. But being negative closes your mind to the possibilities. So, find a way to get excited about your project, whatever that is. Or get another project. [Buy this Sub-$5 Play on Elon Musk’s Final Masterpiece]( After revolutionizing space exploration and the auto industry… Elon Musk is now planning to revolutionize MONEY with this new venture. [Click here to see the details because once Elon flips the switch…]( Which could happen in the next 24 hours… It could send [this sub-$5 play skyrocketing in the coming months](. [Click Here To Learn More]( 9. "Pros are just amateurs who know how to recover from their mistakes gracefully." It took Edison 10,001 attempts to make the lightbulb work. What did he say about that? “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” That’s enthusiasm, optimism, and grace all in one quote. Even if you favor Nikola Tesla, this advice is worth hanging on the wall. 10. “Eat beans and rice for a year.” This is his most unique piece of advice. Kevin says this because “any time you have to risk something in the future, you won’t be afraid of the worst-case scenario.” I remember quitting my broking job in London in 2006. The first thing I bought at Tesco, my local supermarket, was a can of Heinz beans. It tasted fine, and I knew I’d be alright. 11. “When crisis and disaster strike, don’t waste them.” Without problems, there would be no creation or solutions. Learn to thrive on problems, to welcome them. Every time you solve a problem, you get better. 12. “Finite games are played to win or lose. Infinite games are played to keep the game going. Seek out infinite games cause they yield unlimited rewards.” This is why you quit your job to run an online business. The goal is freedom, not money. You stay in the game longer than trying to hang on to a job by your fingernails. 13. “Your behavior, not your opinions, will change the world.” It’s all about what you do, not what you say. That’s why merit-based systems thrive. 14. “The greatest teacher is called ‘doing.’” Get kinesthetic, baby! Take things apart and put them back together again. Hilariously, I’m not allowed to convert my driver’s license here, so I’ve got to do the whole course, including the theory, with eighteen-year-old kids. You know what? I love it. I’m learning all about cars, which they didn’t make me learn in New Jersey in the early 90s. I know an albero del motore is Italian for “crankshaft.” I’m learning to speak Italian better because I have to take this class. Watching videos isn’t always the best way to learn. 15. “Your growth as a mature being is measured by the number of uncomfortable conversations you are willing to have.” I once knew a Wall Street managing director who got drunk before he told his number one he wasn’t getting a promotion this year. He couldn’t bear to have the conversation. His underling decided to stay home the next few days and not come to work. Then, he vowed never to work for that MD again. Those drinks cost the MD $500,000 because his bosses were so incensed they took it out of his hide. Master discomfort. Know what it feels like. Accept it. And then do it anyway. 16. “Very few regrets in life are about what you did. Almost all are about what you didn’t do.” My million-dollar mistake was not buying a flat in London in the early 2000s. My billion-dollar mistake was not buying Bitcoin when my crazy libertarian friends told me to. Sure, I’m not proud of some of the things I’ve done, but those things don’t keep me up at night. 17. "When you die, you take absolutely nothing with you except your reputation." I watched the podcast [Inside of You with Michael Rosenbaum]( a few months ago. His guest was John Rhys-Davies, who played Sallah in the Indiana Jones films. He shared a thoughtful anecdote. Rhys-Davies was teaching an acting class and asked the class who Sir Laurence Olivier was. No one raised a hand. Then someone sheepishly asked, “Was he a writer?” Rhys-Davies said, “If they don’t know who Olivier is, what chance do they have of remembering me?” He knew he had been right to put his energy into his family. Wrap Up I hope you found that as helpful as I did. It’s a list to live by. And I hope you’re enjoying the long weekend. You deserve it! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. 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