Bullish Bobby Kennedy

Does RFK Jr’s Trump endorsement tip the balance? August 26, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Bullish Bobby Kennedy SEAN RING [The New York Post]( headline read, “Democratic dynasty heir RFK Jr. endorses Republican Trump.” But let’s face it: on any other timeline, Donald Trump is a Kennedy Democrat, and RFK Jr. would still be American royalty. Trump was right when he said, “Gone forever is the old Democratic Party of FDR, JFK … even Bill Clinton.” But it’s not only the Democrat party that shifted to the left with their woke ideology, DEI, and CRT components. He doesn’t mention that the Republicans, too, have shifted left. This is no longer the party of small government and smaller taxes. It’s the party of “patriotic spending is fine by us, no matter what happens with the deficit or national debt.” That’s why defense spending has boomed since 2001. Ironically, as RFK Jr. pulls the disaffected Democrats to the right and Trump pulls Republicans left with dreams of inflation-induced riches, can Trump and RFK Jr. become the most remarkable centrist alliance since Bill Clinton hired William Cohen to be his Secretary of Defence? You Have My Permission to be Optimistic I’ll admit it: I was scared for more than a second. Kamala’s goodwill bounce was more than I thought it’d be. And that bounce clearly agitated Trump. He looked sloppy and flustered. And honestly, I don’t blame him. She has no policies to target, so he got personal. And it hurt him for a few weeks. But with RFK Jr. coming on board, it’s a different story. It doesn’t matter if you don’t agree with everything RFK Jr. says or believes. What’s important about him is that he’s happy to defy his wife and siblings and his admittedly diminished status as Democrat royalty. He already took on Fauci and wants to beat up Big Pharma. And, goodness gracious, he endorsed a Republican to thunderous applause. His endorsement could potentially influence Trump's policies, particularly in the areas of public health and pharmaceutical regulation. Now, Trump has the guns to “beat the cheat.” That means he could make the electoral map look like Reagan-Mondale in 1984. And this may sound like lunacy, but if you remember, Kamala came in third in the Democrat primaries in California, her home state, in 2020. It forced her out of the election before Biden scooped her up. Could Trump and RFK Jr. flip California? It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. What Role Will RFK Jr. Play in a Trump Administration? RFK Jr. would’ve asked for a job in the Trump Administration in return for his endorsement. And Trump would only be too happy to oblige. Here are a few possible jobs for RFK Jr.: Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Given RFK Jr.'s outspoken views on vaccines and public health, he most likely would be considered for a position related to health policy. While his views are unorthodox, Trump has previously entertained non-mainstream perspectives (thank heavens). If RFK Jr. were appointed as HHS Secretary, his focus might shift toward issues related to medical freedom, vaccine safety, and alternative health approaches. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator RFK Jr. has a long history as an environmental lawyer and advocate. Despite his controversial views on specific topics, his ecological credentials are well-established. He could be considered for a role at the EPA, focusing on water quality, pollution, and natural resource conservation, aligning with some of his more traditional environmental stances. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) The Director of National Intelligence oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community, coordinating efforts among the various intelligence agencies (such as the CIA, NSA, FBI, and others) to provide comprehensive intelligence to the President and policymakers. Though it would be poetic justice for a Kennedy to hold this position, RFK Jr. doesn’t have a traditional background in intelligence, national security, or military service. His expertise aligns more with environmental law, public health advocacy, and legal matters. RFK Jr.'s lack of experience in intelligence or defense would be a significant hurdle. The intelligence community traditionally values experience in these areas if only to know that “one of their own” is leading them. United States Attorney General (USAG) Could he possibly take his Dad’s old job? Probably not. RFK Jr.’s background is in environmental law. He has been involved in various legal and advocacy roles throughout his career. While he has experience as an attorney, he focuses on environmental issues and activism rather than traditional criminal law or the types of cases typically handled by the Department of Justice. The role of the Attorney General requires a deep understanding of federal law, criminal law, and the inner workings of the Department of Justice. RFK Jr.'s lack of direct experience in these areas makes his potential nomination contentious. The toughest thing about having a Kennedy in your government is keeping him safe. [Download This New Survival Guide Today!]( This short 54-page “Crisis Survival Guide” has everything you need to know to protect yourself and your family in times of crisis. Things like what foods to stock up on now, staying safe during periods of rioting and looting and more. [To see how to download your copy, click here now]( Market History: 2016-2017 Now that I’m assuming Trump wins with RFK Jr. getting a cabinet-level position, let’s look at the last time The Donald won. I’m only using August 26, 2016, to January 20, 2017, to see what happened before the election up to the inauguration date of January 20, 2017. The S&P 500 Hilariously – to me, at least – is that the market was tanking in anticipation of a Hildebeast victory. Market History: 2016-2017 Now that I’m assuming Trump wins with RFK Jr. getting a cabinet-level position, let’s look at the last time The Donald won. I’m only using August 26, 2016, to January 20, 2017, to see what happened before the election up to the inauguration date of January 20, 2017. The S&P 500 Hilariously – to me, at least – is that the market was tanking in anticipation of a Hildebeast victory. The day before the election, the market rocketed 2.22%, perhaps knowing Trump would pull it off. On Election Day, it was up again. Once Trump was confirmed as election victor, the market was up another 1.11%. And then, we were off to the races. I reckon the sooner Trump looks like he’s winning for good, the smoother the sailing will be. Russell 2000 The Russell Rally was even steeper than the majors’ rally. The Russell rally nearly 20% from the election to the inauguration. That bodes well for the Russell this time around. Gold From the peak just prior to the election to the trough before inauguration day, gold fell 14%. It then recovered. Then, it recovered roughly 50% of its losses going into the inauguration. If The Donald wins again, we could see severe turbulence in the gold market. After all, if investors think the stock market will rocket, they won’t want to hold a non-dividend-producing asset at that moment. But I’m still convinced that gold’s long-term trend is up. Way up… to $3,000… at least. The big difference this time is that Trump will have Biden’s ridiculous budget busters, the Inflation Reduction Act and Build Back Better, at his disposal. That’s right, the cash is all his, and since Congress already voted in favor of them—to its everlasting shame—Trump doesn’t have to ask permission to use those funds. Will he blow out the national debt further… or will he repeal them and save the money? Honestly, I can’t see him doing that. Trump will spend. And that will keep gold elevated later on. Wrap Up The good news is that RFK Jr. is in Trump’s camp. The better news is that Trump will almost certainly carry the day in November. The best news is that this is very bullish for the stock market. I just checked the charts, and nothing in them screams, “Sell now!” In fact, it gives the opposite message. The Monthly Asset Class Report will be out next Monday. It's doubtful that things will change between now and then. Have a wonderful week ahead. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… The Bureau of Lies and Stories SEAN RING Apologies to whoever came up with that headline nickname for the BLS. I can’t remember where I read it, or I’d give you full credit here. Let’s be clear: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, as was, has been under the influence of the executive branch for decades. A little nip here… a little tuck there… and no one’s the wiser. But like Nick Leeson of Barings Bank fame, once you get a taste of the excitement, you take bigger and bigger risks. If you recall, in 1995, The Boy From Watford, already down $2 million from making stupid bets on the Nikkei, sold straddles (both puts and calls on the same product with the same strikes and expirations simultaneously) for $2 million, thinking volatility would fall and he’d breakeven. God wasn’t happy with Nick’s bet, so less than 24 hours later, the Kobe earthquake happened, and Nick lost all $2 million… plus another $198 million. Nick didn’t understand “negative gamma.” As Nick was short put options, he had negative gamma. That means his exposure increased as the stock price went lower, and he needed to sell more underlying stock as the market sold off to hedge his options losses. But Nick didn’t do that. He decided to buy Nikkei futures as the market fell hard, thinking, “The market can’t go any lower.” Of course, the market did what it wanted, and the Nikkei fell another 3,000 points. That left him with a $1.8 billion loss and a few years in jail. However, he makes about £10,000 per after-dinner speech in England. They love a loser over there. Inadvertently, Leeson rewrote the regulations that govern banks worldwide. I think of Leeson because I always use him as my prime example of a Rogue Trader in class, and this BLS nonsense smacks of a government thinking, “Nah, they’ll never find out.” What Happened? When the BLS admitted they overstated the payroll numbers from March 2023 to March 2024 by 818,000 jobs, it was like hearing Bob Uecker's famous line, “Juuuuuust a bit outside," echoing in my head. The sheer audacity of the error was staggering. Then, Julie Hagerty of Airplane fame said, “Ladies and gentlemen, please calm down. Please listen to me! I want to tell you what's going on with the ship! Thank you. We've been thrown off course just a tad. “Miss? What exactly is ‘a tad?’” “In space terms, that's about half a million miles.” And finally, Robert Redford said, “Think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?” When your favorite movies spontaneously go off in your head, you know something is wrong. How do you overestimate payroll numbers every month but present your findings as fact? We know. The BLS was getting those calls from the Executive I told you about. This not only misleads the public but also has significant implications for economic policy and market decisions. Credit: [ZeroHedge]( The above chart shows the average monthly change over that time. We knew something was up last weekend when Goldman Sachs called BS on the BLS. I wrote in [Monday’s Rude]( Goldman has called BS on the BLS, the Bureau of Lies and Storytelling… sorry, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s rumored the BLS will revise its nonfarm payroll numbers downward by 600,000 to 1 million jobs. That means it was a lie every time nonfarm payrolls came in above the consensus from March 2023 to March 2024. Credit: Goldman Sachs I wonder what the BLS’s so-called “Super Users” were thinking. After all, they get information before everyone else does. Did they short the market first? And did that hurt them rather than help them? To remind you, I wrote about them back in this [April Rude](. Here’s the gist: [Elon Musk’s Genius Plan to Save the US Dollar from Collapse?]( Elon is about to flip the switch on [his new money project…]( And it could trigger the biggest change to our financial system since the creation of the federal reserve in 1913. Could this save the US dollar from a complete collapse? [Elon said he could flip the switch “as early as mid 2024.]( A Strange Email I can assure you that I didn’t receive this email from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “Super Users?” The BLS has “Super Users?” What are Super Users, exactly? Super Users The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a key federal agency responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating essential economic data, has been sharing non-public inflation data with a secret group of Wall Street "super users." These individuals, who receive preferential treatment and insider explanations of where the data may diverge from expectations, have the potential to influence market decisions based on this privileged information. This revelation came to light when the BLS sent the above email to a group of data "super users" explaining a surge in a measure of rental inflation, which left analysts puzzled. The BLS initially tried to clear the confusion with a notice on its website and claimed the email was a mistake. However, it has since been revealed that this was merely the latest lie by a Biden agency. The dissemination of economic information to this secret group of "super users" is likely to prompt a deeper look, as it has implications for how major assets trade and Federal Reserve policy. How Can You Trust These Guys? You can never trust government agencies. But I much prefer when they downwardly revise their numbers against a president they don’t like rather than them propping up corpses who are thieving oxygen from the rest of us in the Oval Office. And you know if Kamala gets in, they’ll play the same tune. If The Donald returns, we will either get the most accurate numbers ever recorded or numbers that will make him look bad. That’ll set us up for an upward surprise revision later. What Happens When Everyone Gets a Vote You know what happens? Imbeciles like Gina Raimondo get high-ranking government jobs. Pardon the acronym, but OMFG! She’s the Secretary of Commerce, and she’s “not familiar with that.” In this case, “that” is her administration’s own economic numbers. The Secretary of Commerce. It's hard to believe such incompetence exists at such a high level. Watch this and weep at the quality of your overlords: Credit: [@RNCResearch]( Wrap Up I always laugh when Westerners point the finger at the Russian, Chinese, and European governments and call them “liars.” People in glass houses and all that. The USG loves to lie. It’s been lying forever. And it continues to lie to achieve its ends. Jay Powell had his eye on inflation because he thought the labor market was sound. If he had the real numbers, what would he have done? And that goes for countless other investors who aren’t BLS superusers. The US needs to reinstitute equal access to genuine economic data immediately. In the meantime, have a wonderful weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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