Drill, Baby, Drill!

What will Trump's policy do to oil and its drivers if he wins in November? August 16, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Drill, Baby, Drill! SEAN RING Good morning, once again, from beautiful Wroclaw, Poland. It’s been delightful here. As yesterday was a public holiday, I had time to wander around the city with Pam and Micah and read some of the mailbag. Before getting into the bag, I want to wish Philosopher-Truck Driver John Ring the happiest birthday! He’s a ripe 82 years young today. Sorry we’re not home, but we’ll celebrate when we return to Italy. Ok, here we go. Good friend and Head of Paradigm Press’s Director of Customer Experience, Dustin Weisbecker, sent me this message urgently to make sure I answer it: Can’t seem to get any response from PP for my question about drill-baby-drill resulting falling oil and natural gas prices ( and nice consumer impacts) versus what the heck it’s going to do to the energy recommendations made by all of PP’s analysts? Can anybody out there write about this a bit, or did I miss it? Seems that this should be a big concern for all PP subscribers. And analysts. Trump is talking about reducing the cost of energy by at least 50 percent within 12-18 months when taking office. Jim T. Jim T., I hope this message finds you well. As you're aware, I don’t typically recommend single stocks in the Rude unless I’m personally investing in them. However, I can certainly address your question in a more general sense. Trump’s Drilling, Baby! “Drill, baby, drill” goes back to the 2008 Presidential campaign, when John McCain and Sarah Palin topped the Republican ticket. When Palin debated Joe Biden in the Vice Presidential debate, Biden said that McCain thinks "the only answer is drill, drill, drill. Drill we must, but it will take ten years for one drop of oil to come out of any of the wells that are going to be drilled." Palin retorted, "The chant is 'drill, baby, drill.' And that's what we hear all across this country in our rallies because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into." Trump repeatedly used the line during this campaign, especially during his acceptance speech for the Republican nomination. What May Happen Donald Trump's "drill baby drill" policy, which emphasizes increased domestic oil and natural gas production, is positioned as a strategy to lower energy prices and enhance energy independence. However, the impact of such a policy on oil and natural gas prices and energy companies is complex. What follows is my best guess. Impact on Oil and Natural Gas Prices As you mentioned, Jim, Trump claims that ramping domestic drilling will lead to a YUGE decline in energy prices. But by 50%? That’s a bold call, indeed. Trump argues that increased production would lower consumer costs and reduce inflation, which he attributes to high energy prices. During his presidency, oil prices were relatively low, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaging below $60 per barrel for much of his term. Right now, we’re trading in the mid-70s. Simply put, Trump should attribute inflation to reckless fiscal policy rather than high energy prices. Despite Trump's assertions, the U.S. has already achieved record levels of oil production under Joke Biden, averaging 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, surpassing previous records. Increasing drilling may not have the immediate effect that Trump anticipates on prices. In fact, Paradigm Press Grand Poobah Matt Insley often tells me he thinks the already YUGE US supply is dampening oil prices rather than a grim economic outlook. Oil and gas prices are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and OPEC's production decisions. Even with increased domestic production, if global demand remains high or geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, prices may decrease less than Trump expects. For example, if Putin and MBS decide to get together and cut production, prices will soar no matter what the U.S. does. Impact on Energy Companies Energy companies will see a boost in production activities, increasing revenues in the short term. Companies involved in drilling and production will benefit from reduced regulatory constraints and increased investment in fossil fuel projects. However, the long-term sustainability of such a boom is yet to be determined. The energy sector has faced volatility, and a significant increase in production could lead to oversupply, which has historically resulted in price drops and financial strain on smaller companies. Trump's rollback of environmental regulations will undoubtedly facilitate increased drilling. Of course, the watermelons – green on the outside, commie red on the inside – will start legal proceedings, impacting operational costs and public perception of energy companies. [NOW STREAMING: Jim Rickards Emergency Election Briefing]( [Jim Rickards believes Donald J. Trump will win the 2024 election this coming Monday, August 19th.]( If I’m right, and crazy Kamala does what I’m predicting at the Democratic National Convention this week… The next 79 days could be complete and utter chaos in the markets. [Click here now to prepare BEFORE August 19th.]( Get Long Here Energy Sector Oil and Gas Companies: Increased domestic drilling will likely boost the revenues of oil and gas extraction companies, such as major producers and independent operators. This sector could see enhanced profitability due to higher production levels, especially if global oil prices stabilize or increase due to reduced regulatory constraints on exploration and drilling. These companies are analogous to the people panning for gold in 1849. Energy Equipment and Services: Companies that provide drilling equipment and services, including engineering and consulting firms, are expected to benefit from increased demand as drilling activities ramp up. These companies are analogous to the shovel sellers of the gold rush in 1849. Industrial Sector Manufacturing and Construction: The policy will increase infrastructure development, particularly in energy-related projects such as pipelines and refineries. This could benefit construction firms and manufacturers of industrial equipment. Steel and Materials: As energy companies expand their operations, there will be a heightened demand for steel and other construction materials. Financial Sector Banks and Financial Services: With increased activity in the energy sector, financial institutions that provide loans and financing to energy companies may see a boost in business. Higher interest rates could also enhance their profit margins, benefiting this sector. Sectors to Short Renewable Energy Solar and Wind Energy Companies: The Trump 47 administration's increased focus on fossil fuel production will probably divert investments away from renewable energy sources. Companies in the solar and wind sectors will get less funding and support, hindering their growth and development as the administration prioritizes oil and gas. Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturers: Trump's intention to repeal the EV mandate and reduce incentives for electric vehicles could adversely affect EV manufacturers. This sector has been rapidly growing, and a shift back to fossil fuels could stifle innovation and market expansion. Environmental Services, Advocacy, and Finance Environmental Consulting Firms: Companies that provide environmental assessments and compliance services may see a decline in demand as regulations on drilling and emissions are rolled back. This will reduce business opportunities and revenue for firms focused on sustainability. Non-Profit Organizations: Environmental advocacy groups will face challenges in promoting clean energy and combating climate change. A shift towards fossil fuels could undermine their initiatives and funding. Green Investment Funds: Funds focused on sustainable and green technologies will see capital flows shift out of their backyard into fossil fuel projects. Wrap Up Jim T., thanks for the question. I hope I have answered it sufficiently. Have a great weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… It’s the Economy, Donald! SEAN RING I know how you feel, Donald. It must be an intellectual insult to be running against such an idiotic candidate. And what’s worse is that the Main Street media is protecting her. The liberal left refuses to acknowledge her idiocy because they want her in the White House. They’ve ignored that she is the least popular vice president in US history. She’s less popular than Spiro Agnew or Dan Quayle. It’s breathtaking. But the truth is, Donald, you’re blowing it. The reason you’re blowing this election is because you can’t believe that you actually have to deal with this imbecile before you get back behind the Resolute Desk. I completely understand. I watch her speeches and smack my head in shocked incredulity at the nonsense that comes out of her mouth. Donald, it's time to shift the focus of your campaign. Let's stop the personal attacks and start discussing policies. This will help in gaining voter trust and winning the election. But… for one last time, let’s lay out her offenses. The Case Against Her greatest accomplishment in her 20s was doing the horizontal mambo with then-San Francisco mayor Willie Brown. From [Capitalism.com]( In 1994, Harris started dating Willie Brown, a powerhouse in California politics. He was then the state assembly speaker and was 30 years older than Harris. Almost inevitably, Brown appointed Harris to two boards, the California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and the Medical Assistance Commission. These positions paid Harris about $80,000 per year in addition to her prosecutor's salary. It just looked terrible, though Harris defended her record at the time. As for the rest of her California career, let’s hear from Tulsi Gabbard: There's reason for concern about this record of Senator Harris. She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and laughed about it when asked if she ever smoked marijuana. Harris blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row. She kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for California, and she fought to keep the cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way. These words knocked Harris out of the 2020 Democratic primaries. It’s self-evident that she can’t think on her feet. She has nowhere near the skill you have during debates or interviews, and the mainstream media protect her. Donald, you and I judge each other and other people based on how quick we are. We like wit, sarcasm, the one-liners… She can do none of them. Harris has a nervous reflex called cackling, which happens whenever her brain is empty of thoughts… which is quite often. She recently asked for donations while wearing a $62,000 necklace. That’s an offense you would never commit. And yet, what did white, liberal women say? “If her husband wants to buy her that, what business it is of yours?” The message couldn’t be more confusing. I’m sure there’s more we could cover, but generally, she’s just unlikable. Ok, we got all that out of the way. Now, let’s talk about the two issues that will win you this election, courtesy of my Paradigm Press colleague Aaron Gentzler. [Man Who Predicted Biden's Drop Out In October Issues Shocking New Election Prediction]( After calling Biden's withdraw, former White House advisor Jim Rickards issues an even more shpcking election warning... [Watch this Video to learn more]( The Economy You need to pound this issue into the heads of the American electorate. The people who will already vote for you and understand things like inflation are not the people you need to convince. You need to sell this to the upper-middle-class people who are trying to look intelligent in front of their friends by voting Democrat. Under Biden and Harris, American people have suffered – the correct verb – inflation in a way not since the days of Jimmy Carter. It’s simply unacceptable. Remember, if you have 10% inflation per year (which we don’t… yet), prices will double in only seven years. You need to hammer into their heads that you’re not going to open the fiscal spigot, that you’re going to be disciplined, and that you're going to fix the economy. The Border Donald, you should’ve built that goddamn wall. It was only going to cost $5.2 billion. It would’ve saved America a boatload of money. But even with your master negotiating skills, you couldn’t get it through Congress. How much better would the country be? You need to wear that. You need to apologize and say you’re going to get it done. Harris was the border czar, though they say she was a minister without a portfolio. She did nothing on the border… other than let 11 million people in, all of which will be registered Democratic voters. It’s a problem, and you need to solve it. You need to talk about the crimes committed when the border is open. You need also to say that you’re unopposed to legal migration. It’s OK to enter legally and not jump in the queue. This may piss off the far right of your party, but they’ll vote for you anyway. Wrap Up Donald, you need to trust me: you’re losing. I actually believe these polls. I believe them because nobody likes a bully, and you’re bullying her. She may deserve it. She’s awful, but telling the world that doesn’t win elections. Restraint, statesmanship, and eloquence: that’s what the American people need right now. Whatever we may think of her, attacking her will not win this election. The opposite is happening right now. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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