The State of the Markets

The stock market ignores the strong dollar as metals go sideways. June 24, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( The State of the Markets SEAN RING Dear Reader, I thank my lucky Starlink for turning back on so I can write this piece at all. Of course, Telecom Italia installed the fiber optic cable… but on the non-residential side of the street, so the wire doesn’t quite reach my new house. So I opted for Starlink, which was taking more of a siesta than the average Italian shopkeeper. As soon as I complained, it miraculously started working. Could traders' vocal complaints lead to a potential cut by Powell in July? There are a couple of concerning signals out there, but none of the “sell right now” sort. I’ll keep watching out for those. But let’s do a premature and mini asset class report. I want to see what’s going on. Foreign Exchange (The Dollar) My good friend and Paradigm options expert Alan Knuckman thinks the dollar will weaken under a Trump 47 Administration. I agree DJT will do everything to weaken the dollar. I’m just not sure it’ll be enough. Remember, the dollar index is the dollar against other currencies like the euro, sterling, and yen. All of those currencies are a disgrace to the countries (or regions). The dollar will have a tough time falling against intentional European and Japanese currency destruction. As you can see in the chart above, the dollar has recorded higher highs and lower lows since the end of 2023. This indicates the USD rally isn’t over yet. Interest Rates (The US 10-Year) The 10-year yield tells a slightly different story. This chart looks like it’s rolling over. The highs in April 2024 failed to reach the highs of October 2023. The 50-day moving average is declining toward the 200-day moving average. This is positive for stocks, as this is the rate by which bankers discount stocks (plus other risk factors). This chart makes 3.8% look like a feasible next target. Bonds (TLT, LQD) Thanks to the 10-year falling, these charts make complete sense. My friend and Paradigm Income Guru Zach Scheidt has been talking up bonds for a while. After the huge end-of-year rally in 2023, bonds fell off a cliff until May. The last two months have been good, though, and may be poised to get better. I’m still not a huge fan, if only because I think there are other opportunities elsewhere and I don’t think the inflation story is over by a Biden longshot. As for the LQD (liquid corporate bonds ETF), this looks like a great bet. If we break above 109, the next target is a lusty 122 – above there, then it’s an effervescent 132. Perhaps gentlemen should prefer bonds right now… Stocks (SPX, Nasdaq, Russell) Put this chart in front of your grandchild: They’d say, “Buy!” This is a gorgeous chart and a life lesson in why it pays to be optimistic. Bull markets “climb a wall of worry,” and this one just keeps climbing and climbing. Yes, NVDA is an outsized player in the index. Yes, the top 5 stocks in the SPX make up 21% of the index. Who cares? Just don’t own bad stocks. Next target: 6,000. As they say in Asia, “Same, same. But different.” A raging bull at the moment. No reason to sell. I must state, though, the last candle is known as a “gravestone doji” and may indicate a reversal. I’d take it more as a breather, for now. [Urgent Publisher Warning]( Hi, I’m Matt Insley. I’m the Publisher at Paradigm Press. Today, I have [bad news to share]( regarding the future of Jim Rickards’ newsletter. [>> Click here now for my announcement.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( As for the Russell: This chart is a mess. I’d prefer it not to break down below 195. But it looks like it’s rolling over. If it does, that may be an earlier indicator to start selling. The Russell usually leads the other equity indexes. Let’s move on to the metals. Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper) How’s the yellow metal doing? Gold is clearly in an uptrend. And gold is, to my mind, clearly consolidating in the 2,300 - 2,425 range. This is healthy in a wild uptrend like we’ve seen. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get the next kick-up until another round of ridiculous fiscal stimulus is announced. And that may not be until the real estate developer-in-chief gets back behind the Resolute Desk. Still, we’re looking at 2,500 by the end of the year. As for silver: It’s more volatile lately than gold. Mr. Slammy has hit silver harder than Spanish Conquistadors. And yet, it hovers around $30. We’ll get to $35 eventually, but patience is indeed a virtue. Copper rallied to the moon for a bit, but has since come off the boil. I know The Journal and Bloomberg have printed crazy stories about copper being in demand. Yes, it’s true, but it doesn’t last forever. In fact, the next price target for copper is $2.25. Yikes! Energy (Oil, Natural Gas) With yields being down, this makes sense. Oil starts to rally. If it gets above $88, then look to $97. We’ve had higher lows, but we’ve also had lower highs. This is a triangle pattern without a current resolution. But again, with Ukraine, Palestine, and Taiwan (imminent) going on, and the Suez blocked, how can oil only be trading at $80 a barrel? It’s because the world economy is in the toilet. As for natty gas: Ok, we’re off the lows, but we’re not in the clear. Though natural gas is clean burning, the Greens still hate it. That’s why nuclear is a much better bet. My friend and Paradigm Tech Wizard [Ray Blanco made a stunning call on May 14, 2024, in a nuclear stock](. It’s been up nearly fourfold since then. Wrap Up There you have it. Stocks and bonds still look robust. Metals have cooled into consolidation patterns (gold), bounced off their 50-day moving averages (silver), and got trounced unexpectedly (copper). Oil and natural gas have rallied but are still cheap, depending on your view of the world. But it comes down to rates and the dollar. Will a dollar rally crush stocks and metals eventually? Or will rates bring down the dollar and lead to a YUGE rally? It’s unfolding before our eyes. Let’s be slow to pull the trigger. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… Make Up Your Mind! SEAN RING Happy Friday! It’s time to dip into the mailbag for some juicy stuff. Let’s get right into it. “You Can't Have It Both Ways!” Sorry, Sean, You can't have it both ways. Is Biden an old man, barely awake and unable to put together sentences...or a mastermind controlling a far-flung Deep State strategy to get Trump? The reality is a number of regulators and prosecutors have been itching to 'get Trump' for decades, but Trump has been artful in his dodging and deceit; they just had a window of opportunity. Happening on Biden's watch is just timing, not causation. If Trump is seen as a champion against "the system" it is only because he has been fighting accountants, tax officials, and regulators all his life, but for himself and not for the people. Whether the system is unjust, self-serving, and in need of a good enema is another story. Damon C. Thanks for writing, Damon. You’re absolutely right. I’m guilty of unbelievably lazy writing. Let me be clear: I don’t think Joke Biden can control his bowel movements, let alone the Deep State. But there’s “Biden” and there’s “Biden.” The Biden who can’t control his deuces isn’t who I’m talking about when I refer to “Biden” doing this or that. Those are the people the globalists installed around him to set the world on fire. As for your comment about Trump, I’m reminded of Adam Smith: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” Puhleez… I love your columns – they, along with those of Jim Rickards and Addison Wiggins are great big-picture analyses, but puhleez. You opened by tossing out "Bidenflation" as a given, like he invented it. We both know the economy is measured for the most part by trailing data; the effects of Fed/Treasury money printing, demographic changes, global trade/logistics, and Wall Street 'bubbles' take time to be felt. Presidents inherit much from predecessors, add what they fuel they think necessary to the fire, and run for second terms so they can focus on actually doing something. In the main, I blame a spineless Congress, and a self-centered, ignorant public who seem to think money grows on trees. Damon C. Hi again, Damon. Of course, he didn’t invent it. But his budgets - approved by Congress, as you rightly wrote - is what opened up the floodgates of consumer price hikes. But Congress is just as culpable, and the insouciant public, who paid for it dearly. This November, they may make Biden pay for it, too. Ivan Boesky Had Friends! Sean, Thanks for the wonderful article you wrote on Ivan. He was a couple of years ahead of me in high school; however, we were on the wrestling team together so I had followed his "career" but lost track recently. I hope our school will do as enjoyable an article on him as you did. Thanks again, Duncan B. Thanks for the kind words, Duncan. I’m so glad Ivan still had friends and admirers. World War II My uncle was a pilot in England during WWII. He came home from the war but died Crop Dusting in 1953. My dad (who's gone now) would never talk to us about him. I have no knowledge of his time/missions (like a number of sorties if any) then. He was gone 4 years before I was born. Your article put the bigger issues about that in a perspective that makes me want to find out more about him. Doug H. Thanks for writing, Doug. I had to research my whole family to get my Italian passport. There’s nothing like it. By finding them, you find missing pieces of yourself. Best of luck with your search! [Elon Musk’s NEXT Billion-Dollar IPO Revealed by the end of 2024?]( First, Paypal’s IPO made him a multi-millionaire… Then Tesla’s IPO made him a billionaire… Now, his NEXT big IPO could make him a TRILLIONAIRE. And for anyone who knows how to follow Musk as he potentially takes this new company public… The gains could be life-changing. [Click here to find out how](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Commander’s Intent Hi Sean, I enjoy your columns immensely. First read of the day. Commander's intent was developed by the Army to fix the problems encountered during Viet Nam with micromanaging, and is one of the things that turned the Army around in the 80s to be the Army of Desert Storm. As a commander myself, I had to develop my commander's intent so that my subordinates were cognizant of my goals and expectations. This allowed me greater freedom in ensuring I didn't get bogged down in the details and allowed me to focus on the larger issues that develop when conducting battlefield operations. Following my retirement from the Army, the Companies I worked for employed this throughout the business because they were all led by retired Army officers. They were all great places to work and all were very successful. Charlie R. Thank you, Charlie. I just landed a teaching gig today because I asked the client what their Commander’s Intent was. I was able to tailor my pitch around what they told me. Easy peasy. Commander’s Intent’s brilliance lies in its simplicity to understand and act upon. I love it. Apologies to Jeff R., who also wrote in on the subject. I couldn’t figure out how to trim your message without losing its meaning. Whisk(e)y Bars Dear Sean, AMEN! Now, about the Whiskey Bar. I watched every minute of the event. I was amazed at the intelligence in that room. It gives me great pride to be a member of Paradigm Press. I also like the fact that you can make me laugh out loud. Your interview with Mr. Rule was fantastic! He influenced some of my stock choices. Norma I. Thank you, Norma! I’ll pass on your kind words to Rick, as well. Hello Sean! Thanks for the brief overview of this year's latest Whiskey Bar Panel Discussion. I'll have to go back and watch the replay; I look forward to hearing all the Paradigm staff's insights. I noticed it last year, too, but I do have to take the opportunity this time around to chide you a bit for your comments about whiskey. I can certainly appreciate your love of Scotch -- you like what you like -- and I too love a well-made single malt. I tend to be more of an equal-opportunity enthusiast, though. I enjoy whiskies from both sides of the Atlantic, plus more exotic places like Japan, India, and Taiwan. With regards to Jack Daniels, well... technically and legally it is whiskey (it also meets the legal definitions for Bourbon and for Tennessee Whiskey, a sub-category of Bourbon). Granted, the "Old No. 7" brand of Jack Daniels that sits behind every bar in the U.S. that you were most likely referring to isn't what any enthusiast would consider *good* whiskey. However, Jack Daniel's does produce some objectively delicious and well made American Whiskeys -- just not the most widely sold ones. In a way, it's similar to Volkswagen Group. The same company that makes the VW Beetle also makes the Lamborghini Aventador. Unlike Volkswagen, though, Jack Daniel's top-tier products are made in the same place, using the same ingredients and the same stills as their bottom-shelf swill. That's the art and magic of whiskey-making! Thanks for allowing me to let my whiskey-nerd flag fly. It's all meant in good humor. Cheers, Jesse E. Jesse, I’m a damn snob about it and I know it. But I’m grateful you wrote in. My friends in Asia swear by Japanese and Taiwanese whiskies. I’ll try some of Jack’s other offerings when I get the chance. Keep well! Wrap Up Thanks to those who wrote in. I love to see it and I’m sorry I can’t print them all continuously. I’ll get to them as fast as I can. Remember, it costs zero dollars to write to feedback@rudeawakening.info. In the meantime, have a wonderful weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. 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