A Nickel For Your Thoughts?

After gold, silver, and copper took off, nickel joined the party. May 20, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( A Nickel For Your Thoughts? SEAN RING Thanks to Bidenflation, your thoughts are now five times more expensive than they used to be. One can harken back to the days of yesteryear, when Ingrid Bergman’s Ilsa Lund offered Humphery Bogart’s Rick Blaine a franc for his thoughts in Casablanca. Rick answered, “In America, they’d only bring a penny. I guess that’s about all they’re worth.” Well, Rick, eighty years later, you’ve got a raise! It’s nominal, not real. Nominal is the economist’s preferred word for “illusory.” Oh, I’m not being serious. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the dollar has lost over 95% of its value. Pennies are practically worthless. But nickel is on a tear. No, not the ones in your pocket. The metal that’s used to make stuff. Let me catch you up on this critical element. The Metal that Shapes the Modern World What is nickel? Nickel, a lustrous silvery-white metal, has been known since antiquity but was often confused with other metals like silver. Its history dates back to 1751 when Axel Fredrik Cronstedt, a Swedish chemist, isolated it while attempting to extract copper from a mineral known as niccolite. Cronstedt named the new metal "nickel" after the German word "kupfernickel," which translates to "devil's copper" due to the deceptive nature of the ore. Where is Nickel Found? Nickel, a critical element, is primarily found in two types of ore deposits: laterite and sulfide deposits. The major nickel producers are countries with abundant lateritic ores, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Russia, New Caledonia (we’ll get to them later), and Canada. Indonesia and the Philippines alone account for over 40% of the global nickel supply, a significant contribution driven by their rich lateritic deposits. Nickel’s Applications Nickel's resistance to corrosion and ability to alloy with other metals make it invaluable in various industries. Here are some key applications: - Stainless Steel: About 68% of the world’s nickel production manufactures stainless steel, enhancing its strength and corrosion resistance. - Batteries: Nickel is a critical component in the production of rechargeable batteries, especially nickel-cadmium and nickel-metal hydride batteries. More recently, nickel's role in lithium-ion batteries has surged due to the growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs). - Plating: Nickel plating is widely used to provide a protective coating for other metals, improving their resistance to corrosion and wear. - Alloys: Nickel alloys are essential in aerospace and military applications due to their high-temperature resistance and durability. - Coins: Various countries use nickel in coinage due to its durability and resistance to tarnishing. Nickel in the World Economy Nickel is pivotal in the global economy due to its extensive use in stainless steel and battery production. The metal is crucial for infrastructure development, automotive manufacturing, and the burgeoning EV market. The push towards green energy and sustainable technologies has further amplified nickel's importance. As countries strive to meet climate goals, the demand for nickel-rich batteries continues to rise, positioning the metal as a cornerstone of the energy transition. The LME Nickel Episode of March 2022 In March 2022, the London Metal Exchange (LME) witnessed one of the most dramatic events in its history, centered around nickel trading. The episode was triggered by a massive short squeeze involving Tsingshan Holding Group, a major Chinese nickel producer. Tsingshan had built substantial short positions in nickel, betting on falling prices. However, geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, exacerbated supply concerns and sent nickel prices soaring. On March 8, 2022, nickel prices surged over 250% within hours, briefly touching $100,000 per metric ton, a historical high. This unprecedented spike forced the LME to halt trading and cancel billions of dollars' worth of trades to restore market order. The LME's intervention sparked controversy and debates about market integrity and the role of financial institutions in commodity markets. The exchange faced criticism for its handling of the situation, with some market participants questioning the decision to cancel trades. This incident underscored commodity markets' volatility and speculative nature, mainly when driven by geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions. Elliott Fund Management sued for $456 million, claiming that LME acted "unreasonably and irrationally" when it canceled those nickel trades made on March 8, 2022. Jane Street Global Trading sued LME for $15.3 million for the same reason. The Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) owns the LME. Now, let’s get to more current events on the other side of the world. [URGENT: Unclaimed Giveaway Offer]( We have an item of considerable value on hold for you in our warehouse. Valued at nearly $300, this [special item]( is an opportunity you wanted to miss. [Click here to see how to claim yours now.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( A Crucial Player in the Nickel Industry New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the southwest Pacific Ocean, is renowned for its rich cultural heritage and diverse ecosystems. With its stunning beaches, coral reefs, and unique blend of French and Melanesian influences, it is a unique and vibrant place. However, due to its abundant nickel reserves, New Caledonia holds significant economic importance beyond its natural beauty. Credit: [( Importance as a Nickel Miner New Caledonia is one of the world’s leading producers of nickel, holding approximately 10% of the world’s known nickel reserves. The territory’s economy is heavily reliant on nickel mining, which accounts for a substantial portion of its GDP and exports. Major nickel mines such as the Goro mine and Koniambo Nickel project are central to global nickel supply, making New Caledonia a crucial player in the global market. The high-quality laterite nickel ore found here is essential for producing stainless steel and batteries, particularly as demand for electric vehicles rises. Voting Rules Changes and the Recent Riots New Caledonia has been experiencing significant political tensions, particularly surrounding its relationship with France. The recent riots against French rule were sparked by changes to voting rules related to the territory's independence referendums. The changes that incited the riots include modifications to the electorate criteria for the independence referendums. Many pro-independence Kanak groups perceived these changes as favoring the loyalist (pro-France) side. Specifically, the eligibility criteria were seen to potentially dilute the influence of the indigenous Kanak population, which predominantly supports independence. The changes led to widespread unrest and riots, as the pro-independence factions felt that the alterations undermined their prospects of achieving a fair vote on the territory's future. The Upshot Between its importance and the tightening of its supply due to the New Caledonian crisis, nickel has had a surge in its market value. Since February, we’ve rallied from $16,000 per metric ton to nearly $21,000. That’s a tidy 31.25% return in under four months. Year-to-date, only silver’s 32.35% return outpaced nickel’s 27% return. Wrap Up The commodity bull market is well underway, but far from over. More metals keep joining the party. As inflation heats up again, the Fed cuts rates in June or July, and supply tightens, we’re only looking for more of the same for the near future. There’s still time to join the metals party. Take action. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… A Scandal in Slovakia SEAN RING These days in Europe, advocating peace gets you shot. A left-wing “activist” shot, but luckily didn’t kill, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Two days ago, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt during a public event. He was shot four times by a lone gunman. The mainstream media identified the perpetrator as a “lone wolf” attacker in a politically motivated act. (I’ll get to that later.) Fico was critically injured and underwent a five-hour surgery performed by two teams of doctors. Despite the attempt to turn him into Swiss cheese, he has been stabilized and is now in serious but stable condition. The attack on Fico has been widely condemned as an attack on democracy, highlighting the tensions within Slovakian politics. For once, this is accurate. I’m thrilled they didn’t call it an attack on populism. The incident has shocked both the country and Europe, raising concerns about political violence and its implications for the region's stability. Slovakia? Who Cares? I’ve got two words for you: “Franz Ferdinand.” The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, happened on June 28, 1914, in Sarajevo. The event is widely recognized as the catalyst for World War I. Here are the key details: Franz Ferdinand was visiting Sarajevo with his wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, to inspect imperial armed forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, provinces annexed by Austria-Hungary in 1908, which had angered Serbian nationalists. Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb member of the nationalist group Black Hand, then shot the archduke and his wife. This group aimed to create a Greater Serbia by liberating South Slavs from Austro-Hungarian rule. Princip fired at them while they were traveling in an open car. The assassination was part of a broader conspiracy involving multiple members of the Black Hand. An earlier attempt on the archduke's life that day had failed when someone threw a bomb at his car but missed, injuring several bystanders instead. The assassination led to a diplomatic crisis known as the July Crisis. Austria-Hungary, with Germany's support, issued an ultimatum to Serbia. Serbia's response was deemed unsatisfactory, leading Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia. This set off a chain reaction of alliances being activated, leading to the outbreak of World War I. The Activated Chain of Alliances No, I don’t think the situations are the same. But no one, and I mean no one, saw a World War breaking out because an assassinated Archduke. No one thinks a World War is on tap now. And that’s what scares me. Of course, Fico has survived - thank heavens - but history rhymes. Let’s see what led to the war. It’s utterly ridiculous. When people say, “World War I was a mistake,” or “World War I never should’ve been fought,” here’s why. Following the assassination, Austria-Hungary, wanting to punish Serbia, received a "blank check" from Germany. This meant Germany promised unconditional support to Austria-Hungary, even if it meant going to war. This assurance emboldened Austria-Hungary to issue an ultimatum to Serbia on July 23, 1914. Serbia, supported by its Slavic ally, Russia, rejected the ultimatum, leading Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia on July 28, 1914. Russia, which viewed itself as the protector of Slavic nations and had its own strategic interests in the Balkans, began mobilizing its forces in defense of Serbia on July 30, 1914. Germany, viewing Russian mobilization as an act of war, declared war on Russia on August 1, 1914. Germany's Schlieffen Plan, a military strategy for a two-front war against France and Russia, required a swift defeat of France before turning east to Russia. Germany's war plan necessitated an invasion of France through Belgium, a neutral country. Germany declared war on France on August 3, 1914, and subsequently invaded Belgium on August 4, 1914. The invasion of Belgium brought the United Kingdom into the war due to its 1839 treaty obligations to defend Belgian neutrality. The UK declared war on Germany on August 4, 1914. Thus began World War I. Is that the stupidest thing you’ve ever read? It’s not like governments have gotten any smarter since then. To summarize, Austria-Hungary's declaration of war on Serbia led to declarations of war by Germany on Russia, Germany on France, and Britain on Germany. Utter lunacy. Now, back to Fico. [Urgent: Claim Your Copy Of This New Book From America’s #1 Retirement Expert!]( Forget everything you’ve ever been told about retirement. According to [this new book]( – written by America’s #1 retirement expert – you don’t have to wait until you’re 65+… and you don’t need millions of dollars. [The strategy you’ll find outlined inside this book]( is completely different… All you have to do is tap into the little-known income streams revealed inside this book… And you’ll learn exactly how you can generate almost effortless income every month… instantly, in some cases! [And today, for a limited only, you have the chance to claim a copy of this book for just $1. Click here now to claim your special book offer.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Why “They” Want Him Dead Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has taken a stance contrary to what European technocrats want on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, often aligning with pro-Russian sentiments. Fico is smart enough to know neither his country, his friend Viktor Orban’s country, nor the rest of Europe can long survive as a viable economic entity without cheap Russian gas to fuel the place. Germany’s rapid deindustrialization at the hands of its American masters is proof of this. This first chart is German industrial production. It’s fallen off a cliff. Credit: Capital Economics This next chart shows German industrial orders. Domestic orders have been down roughly 15% since 2015, and foreign orders have remained flat. Credit: Capital Economics Fico has labeled the conflict "frozen" and believes it cannot be resolved through military means. He opposes the supply of arms to Ukraine and ended Slovakia's military aid to Ukraine shortly after taking office in October 2023. This is the [UK Defense Intelligence Map of Ukraine from May 31, 2022]( This one is from April 23, 2023: And this is from May 10, 2024: I know I’m only eyeballing it, but Fico looks right to me. Fico has suggested that Ukraine should cede some of its territory to Russia as part of a compromise to end the war, which he views as the only realistic solution given the current circumstances. But land hasn’t changed hands via military force in Europe since the Second World War. So Brussels, the USG, and, I assume, BlackRock are utterly against this. Additionally, he is firmly against Ukraine joining NATO, arguing that such a move would escalate tensions and potentially lead to a bigger conflict. Fico has also echoed Russian narratives, questioning Ukraine's sovereignty and suggesting the United States heavily influences it. Credit: [Radio Free Europe]( These views have drawn significant criticism both domestically and internationally, particularly from Ukrainian officials and other European leaders who see them as undermining efforts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Oh, and he hates the WHO and its pinpricking program: Credit: [BGatesIsaPsycho]( (best X handle ever!) Of course, some in the media tried to justify it. Journalist Glenn Greenwald posted, "Listen to this Sky News report on the shooting of Robert Fico. Not only do they come close to justifying it because he opposes aid to Ukraine, but they also casually imply that he's being paid by the Kremlin. This casual accusation is so prevalent in the West, and toxic." The Sky News segment calls Fico "very pro-Russian" and says that it's "not surprising" that the attack took place. The Perp What is it with Leftists and assassinations, crowd shootings, and school shootings? Several local media reports from Slovakia report that the man who shot the Fico is a writer and activist named Juraj Cintula. Cintula is said to be part of the pro-West and socially liberal "Progressive Slovakia" party. Apparently, he’s just not happy with his government’s policies. Join the club, pal. And he’s married to a Ukrainian, allegedly. I’m sure that would have nothing to do with this. Wrap Up Now you’re up-to-date on the craziness that’s Europe. Let’s hope it doesn’t unravel like it did 110 years ago. That’s the last thing we need. Have a great weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Rude Awakening.](