Peter Thiel’s “Crazy” Crypto Bet

Is ETH a buy? May 17, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( No, don’t bet the farm on Ethereum. But do consider the asymmetric bet. Peter Thiel’s “Crazy” Crypto Bet CHRIS CAMPBELL Dear Reader, Peter Thiel made billions with 11 words. He opened his book Zero to One with them: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?" Blam. That’s his secret as a contrarian investor. That’s it. As you know, contrarian investing is all about doing the opposite of “common sense.” Instead of following the lemmings off a cliff, contrarian investors hunt for opportunities where everyone else is either losing their minds with pessimism or riding a delusional high of optimism. By spotting undervalued assets… Contrarians make a killing while everyone else scoffs. Bitcoin in 2014: While everyone else was calling it a scam and a bubble, the smart contrarians bought in and laughed all the way to the bank. Tesla in the early 2000s: When the crowd scoffed at the idea of electric cars, contrarians loaded up on Tesla stock, betting on Musk’s vision. Now, they're sitting on piles of cash. Amazon in 1997: While traditional investors dismissed Amazon as "just an online bookstore," contrarians saw the potential. Today, Amazon runs the world. Thiel is the ultimate contrarian investor, consistently betting big on ideas everyone else dismisses. In 2004, he put $500,000 into Facebook when social media was a joke and MySpace ruled. That bet paid off bigly, establishing Facebook as a tech titan. Thiel also co-founded Palantir amidst widespread skepticism about big data’s profitability and ethics; it’s now a key player in data analytics for governments and businesses. His early investment in SpaceX was another contrarian move, backing private space travel when it seemed like a sci-fi fantasy—today, SpaceX dominates the space industry. Thiel’s foresight was evident again in 2014 when he embraced Bitcoin while traditional finance laughed it off as speculative nonsense; Bitcoin is now a mainstream asset. Thiel’s latest investment has raised a few eyebrows. Perhaps we should pay attention. [ALERT] The #1 AI Stock To Buy Now! James Altucher just released an urgent video detailing a brand-new AI stock that could grow by 10X or more over the next few years. But you have to hurry. A major piece of news could be released any day, and it could be what sends this stock SOARING, outperforming AI giants like Nvidia. [Click here for exclusive urgent access.]( Betting Big on Betting Markets In our Altucher’s Investment Network Facebook group (exclusive for ALN members), James wrote about Thiel’s investment in Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform. He wrote: A couple of interesting points: A) The CFTC is trying to ban betting platforms. B) It’s almost like a moral ban on betting in general. Even though most stock trading and particularly options trading is VERY MUCH like betting. (e.g. I’m going to bet on MSFT earnings by buying short-term options right before earnings day - that is a bet rather than an “investment”). C) Polymarket is backed by Polygon tokens. Worth looking into that. D) I’ve been fascinated by election betting since 2020 when I had on the PredictIt CEO and they even asked me to do a column for them. On PredictIt some people apparently make over $100k a year even though each individual bet is limited to about $1000. E) I admire the contrarian style of betting on something that is potentially going to be declared illegal. It almost makes me think he does that on purpose because he analyzes 1) it’s decentralized too hard to make it illegal and 2) once it is clear it can’t be made illegal (also since it's global) the valuation will go way up. Brass tacks… Thiel’s Polymarket investment is another masterclass in contrarian thinking. He’s betting on the inevitable clash between outdated regulations and unstoppable technological progress. When the dust settles, Thiel will likely be on top, as usual. And although you’re likely not going to be able to invest in Polymarket (anytime soon, at least)... Let’s use a similar play as another example. Ethereum: A Contrarian Bet? Let’s look at what’s going on. The general sentiment is that the SEC won't approve an Ethereum ETF this year, which has already led to negative sentiment, depressing Ethereum’s current price. On Polymarket, we see a dismal 10% chance of an Ethereum ETF approval by the end of the month. However… There’s reason to believe the market might be undervaluing the odds. (More on Monday.) But speculation aside: The asymmetry comes from the fact that while the probabilities of the most favorable scenarios (ETF approval or favorable regulatory classification) is lower… The impact on ETH’s price to the upside in those cases would be dramatic. Conversely, the likelihood of adverse scenarios (ETF denial) is higher… BUT: The impact will be relatively minimal -- this is exactly what everyone expects. (Of course, Ethereum could plummet WAY down… but we’re talking probabilities here.) Moreover, if we see any worst-case scenarios -- which pit the SEC against Ethereum holders -- I’m not counting out a Gamestop-style “SEC vs. the People” run. (Non-zero chance, however low.) I know I’m not saying anything groundbreaking here… And I’m also NOT saying go bet the farm on Ethereum. Just this: Contrarian investors focus on these scenarios for the highest potential returns. Again: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?" More on the Ethereum ETF on Monday. (Hint: Ethereum’s here to stay.) Until next time, Chris Campbell For Altucher Confidential Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. QUICK! Count how many pennies you see. Here’s why: If you missed out on making a fortune with cryptocurrencies, the recent crash has finally given you your chance to scoop up cryptos for pennies on the dollar. Literally. Because there’s a cryptocurrency quietly preparing to conquer the marketplace… and it’s trading for 96% below its all-time high. In fact… … it’s trading for the number of pennies you counted above. Get your hands on this bargain crypto while you can. [Click here to find out how to make up to an 8,788% return with crypto by 2025](. You Might be Interested in... [Jim Rickards 2024 Election Prediction: Biden OUT By May]( [Ethereum Kills Ethereum Killers]( [Only around 4 in 100 Ai stocks can make it. Find the winners here]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Altucher Confidential e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Altucher Confidential, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@altucherconfidential.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Altucher Confidential is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Altucher Confidential subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Altucher Confidential.](