Elections: The Day After

What Comes Next? [The Daily Reckoning] November 09, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Elections: The Day After - More of a red trickle than a Red Wave… - A changing of the guard… - Then Jim Rickards shows you what you can expect in politics and markets going forward… [BOMBSHELL: The Briefing That Shook Our Business]( Jim Rickards dropped an absolute bombshell on our readers. That’s why I am sending you a personal rebroadcast link to the briefing that cause quite the stir in our office. With some saying this could be the biggest scandal since Watergate... And with our phones ringing off the hook... I’m urging you to get caught up immediately — there isn’t much time left… [Click Here To Learn More]( Portsmouth, New Hampshire November 9, 2022 [Jim Rickards] JIM RICKARDS Dear Reader , It’s the day after. What comes next? Now that the elections are over, the political landscape should be a lot clearer. If only that were true. With some Republican victories in the House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate and governor’s races across the country, the U.S. has made just a slight pivot away from progressives and wokeness and toward more traditional approaches to economics, crime and education. I admit that I had forecast a much larger Republican victory. The Republicans will take control of the House, but control of the Senate may not be known for almost a month since the runoff election in Georgia between the incumbent Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker will take place on Dec. 6. Still, many of the old battles remain even as the electoral dust clears. And new battles are already emerging. This special post-election analysis draws on my Washington and Wall Street sources to let you know where the major policy debates stand going forward and to highlight the new struggles resulting from the election itself. Consider this a road map to major political and economic developments in the year ahead that will affect you and your investment portfolio. The election may be over but the fight for congressional leadership posts inside the two major political parties has just begun. The first major fight will be for the Democratic Party leadership in the House of Representatives. The Democrats will be in the minority in the House and many members blame the current leadership for that outcome. Unfortunately for the party, the younger moderates don’t have a voice. This will come down to a battle between the old guard and the Progressive Caucus. The Old Guard will likely be swept away. Current Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (age 82) may be on her way to Italy as the new U.S. ambassador. The current majority leader, Steny Hoyer (age 83), and his deputy Jim Clyburn (age 82) will also be swept aside. The new minority leader will come from the Progressive Caucus and be either Pramila Jayapal (chair of the Progressive Caucus) or one of the caucus members including Jamie Raskin, Ro Khanna or Hakeem Jeffries. “Squad” members (Ayanna Pressley, AOC, Ilhan Omar, Cori Bush and Rashida Tlaib) are too radical for leadership roles even for the Democrats, but they will have a voice. Pramila Jayapal damaged her chances with the circulation of a recent letter signed by her and others calling for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. That was too much for the warmonger Democrats. The letter was quickly withdrawn and disowned by the signers. Hakeem Jeffries floated a trial balloon, but it went nowhere. Jamie Raskin suffers the Dem disability of being white. Look for Ro Khanna to be the new minority leader. He’s radical but presentable. This means no change of direction by the Democrats. They’re doubling down. The new Republican speaker of the House will be Kevin McCarthy. There’s no controversy there. It’s still too soon to know if Republicans will control the Senate or possibly be stuck in the 50/50 rut they’ve been in since 2021. McConnell seems safe as Republican leader in the Senate regardless of whether Republicans take control or not. The potential knife fight in the Senate for the Republican leader role between current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida has been avoided for now as the recounts and a Georgia runoff play out. McConnell commands the old bulls and the rank and file. But Scott is the leader of the MAGA Republican wing including new Sen. J.D. Vance and possibly Kelly Tshibaka, Blake Masters, Adam Laxalt and Herschel Walker, along with some pro-Trump holdovers including Mike Lee, Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson. That’s a potential core of nine votes that may be a thorn in McConnell’s side. We’ll have to see how the count goes over the coming days. Odds are McConnell will hold on, but it could be close. Regardless of the vote, the real impact is a split between the MAGA Republicans and the old bulls. That split will be magnified in the months ahead as the 2024 presidential campaign heats up. With progressives in charge among Democrats, and MAGA Republicans on the rise in the GOP, the next two years promise to be as acrimonious and divisive as the cycle we’ve just completed. What exactly can you expect over the next two years, both in politics and in markets? I show you the answers below. Read on. Regards, Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning P.S. I can’t believe it… Even the mainstream, left-leaning CNBC news outlet is reporting a mind-blowing blunder — directly related to what I’ve been calling [Biden's big election "cover-up"...]( The 18-second clip goes on to say we’re experiencing “rolling blackouts because we can’t get enough energy in America… This is mind-blowing.” This is exactly what I warned about during my Emergency Election Briefing Sunday night. Could you afford to see your heating bills go up 15X this winter? And that’s on top of the inflation you’re already feeling in food and housing costs. Well, if you missed my broadcast you can watch the replay, and learn my #1 action to take by [clicking here.]( This is the real election story as far as I’m concerned. [Click here now to learn my #1 action to take.]( Please don’t wait. This information comes down tonight at midnight. [Warning: Will “Bidenflation” Destroy Your Retirement?]( [Click here for more...]( If you’re like most Americans, you’ve worked hard for decades to build your financial legacy. And now, as a result of Biden’s disastrous money printing policies, that’s all at risk. According to one top retirement expert, “Bidenflation” threatens to destroy your retirement and make your hard-earned savings worthless. That’s why you must take action right away to protect yourself… [Click Here To Learn How]( The Daily Reckoning Presents: You can expect more energy shortages, public hearings targeting Democrats, ongoing geopolitical crises, an indictment of Trump and market volatility… ****************************** A Long Two Years Ahead By Jim Rickards [Jim Rickards] JIM RICKARDS Will we see a return to sensible energy policies? Many investors hope that even a partial Republican victory on Election Day 2022 means that the U.S. can return to sensible energy policies. This would mean finishing the Keystone XL pipeline, expanding fracking, issuing new oil and natural gas exploration leases on federal lands, refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and building new refinery capacity. Unfortunately, none of those things is likely to happen in the next two years. The reason is that none of those policies is under the direct control of Congress. They are all controlled by the White House either through existing legislation or through executive orders. New legislation could be passed but it would be vetoed by Joe Biden; the Republicans do not have the votes to override a veto even if a few Democrats cross the aisle. If anything, the energy situation will grow worse. Progressive Democrats will look at their prospects in 2024 and conclude that they will lose the White House then and therefore only have two years left to complete the radical energy transformation of America. They have almost $1 trillion to spend under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act passed last August (that law is really the Green New Deal in disguise). This law provides hundreds of billions of dollars each for separate initiatives to subsidize wind turbines, solar power, electric vehicles and other nonfeasible and ultimately wasteful forms of energy production. Democrats will be in a race to implement their scam rather than retreat to more sensible policies. The result will be higher energy prices, energy shortages, brownouts, blackouts and worse. Republicans can scream but the White House will still be firmly in charge. Mark this down as an issue for the 2024 election, but don’t expect much relief in the meantime. Public Hearings Are on Their Way The new Republican majority in the House (the Senate is still uncertain) will not be able to pass much legislation (because of vetoes) and will not be able to change current policies because they’re run from the White House. But they will be able to hold public hearings to shine a light on the misguided policies of the Democrats and wrongdoing by officials and agencies. Having a Republican majority in the House means taking control of important committees with jurisdiction over the Department of Justice, the Pentagon, the Energy Department and other key cogs in the White House ideological machine. Along with control comes the ability to issue subpoenas, call witnesses, take testimony under oath and demand books and records, among other things. There are even committees with the power to conduct investigations and oversight independent of the particular subject matter. You can expect hearings on the Hunter Biden laptop cover-up, the Biden crime family connections to corruption in China and Ukraine, the politicization and weaponization of the FBI to attack political opponents and parents who just want to go to school board meetings and much more. You can also expect efforts at impeachment of DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (for failure to enforce immigration laws), Attorney General Merrick Garland (for using the FBI as a political Gestapo for Biden) and even Joe Biden himself potentially, though that’s less likely. The hearings may not produce much legislation and the mainstream media can be counted on to ignore them, but the word will still get out through Fox News, social media (especially Twitter under Elon Musk) and private lawsuits. Valuable information will be unearthed that can either be leaked to the media or used as a platform in the 2024 elections. Get ready for fireworks from the podium and a steady stream of headlines that will be the playbook for the 2024 presidential race. [Military Experts preparing for a “Pearl Harbor Style Attack” on Guam?]( [Click here for more...]( Putin invades Ukraine… China launches rockets over the straits of Taiwan… And as we speak, military experts are warning the US to “Prepare for a Pearl Harbor Style Attack” on Guam. Is the beginning of World War III? [Click Here To Find Out]( How Geopolitics Are Affected While the focus of the 2022 election was on domestic concerns such as inflation, the economy, crime, education and illegal immigration, the world was still a troubled place. This includes the war in Ukraine, a global financial and economic war involving sanctions, Chinese provocations against Taiwan, North Korean missile launches, Iran nuclear weapons development and a coming economic crash in Western Europe. None of the crises is going away soon. Again, these geopolitical issues fall mainly in the domain of the White House. Congress has little direct impact except through appropriations and hearings. Appropriations tend to get wrapped into gigantic spending bills or continuing resolutions and have little ability to affect particular policies on a country-by-country basis. Hearings are good for revealing what’s going on and the White House incompetence, but also have little direct impact on policy. Hearings adverse to the White House are also ignored by the media. What cannot be ignored are the crises themselves and their impact on everyday Americans including higher energy and food prices due to global supply chain disruptions and economic sanctions. The greatest danger is the escalation of the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a nuclear showdown between the U.S. and Russia. This type of dangerous escalation is likely and will have a more adverse impact on markets and portfolios than any hearings or legislation emerging from the new Congress. Trump and 2024 How can we ignore Trump? He himself makes that impossible regardless of the news cycle. Expect two major developments in the coming weeks: Trump will announce he’s running for president in 2024. The announcement is expected on Nov. 15, although that date could move a few days one way or the other. The Democrats will stop at nothing to destroy Trump. (We know that because they’ve been trying so hard for the last seven years including the Russiagate hoax, two impeachments, a criminal investigation of the Trump family businesses, fake news, tax return scavenger hunts and a lot more). Expect the intense phase of the 2024 presidential election to begin before you sit down for your 2022 Thanksgiving dinner. As I’ve explained recently, the next development will be a criminal indictment of Trump personally. The Democrats did not want to do this before the midterm elections because it would be too blatantly political. Likewise, they can’t wait until too late in the election cycle for the same reason – it looks like Department of Justice interference in a presidential election. So the window for an indictment is probably the 120-day period from Dec. 1 to April 1, 2023. If both stories play out, we’ll have the spectacle of an announced candidate for president standing as a defendant in a criminal case probably based on the “insurrection” of Jan. 6, 2021, which was nothing more than an unruly riot and far from a real insurrection. The impact on portfolios will be increased volatility based on increased uncertainty. A Brutal Second Half Is Coming If you’re tired of hyperpartisan politics, you might want to consider early retirement in Polynesia. That may be the only place that isn’t saturated with the “go for the throat” brand of politics we’re about to witness. In short, the 2022 midterm elections were more of a halftime than the end of the game. We may get a short breather in the locker room but get ready for an even more brutal second half. Fasten your seat belt and stay tuned! The recent Wall Street rally has been powered by a narrative that Ukraine is winning (it’s not), China is reopening (it’s not) and America will avoid a recession after a Fed pivot (not happening in time). These narratives will all soon collide with reality consisting of a global recession, a Ukrainian fiasco and a Chinese economic crisis. Let’s hope the liquidity crisis can be avoided but that’s a long shot. The markets are in for a rude awakening… but you don’t have to be. There’s still time to reduce equity exposure, increase your cash allocation, buy Treasury notes and top up your gold position to 10% of investable assets. That will see you through the storm. Regards, Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning P.S. I can’t believe it… Even the mainstream, left-leaning CNBC news outlet is reporting a mind-blowing blunder — directly related to what I’ve been calling [Biden's big election "cover-up"...]( The 18-second clip goes on to say we’re experiencing “rolling blackouts because we can’t get enough energy in America… This is mind-blowing.” This is exactly what I warned about during my Emergency Election Briefing Sunday night. Could you afford to see your heating bills go up 15X this winter? And that’s on top of the inflation you’re already feeling in food and housing costs. Well, if you missed my broadcast you can watch the replay, and learn my #1 action to take by [clicking here.]( This is the real election story as far as I’m concerned. [Click here now to learn my #1 action to take.]( Please don’t wait. This information comes down tonight at midnight. Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com) [James G. Rickards] [James G. Rickards]( is the editor of Strategic Intelligence. He is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He is the author of The New York Times bestsellers Currency Wars and The Death of Money. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2022 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. 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