Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to Rude Awakening here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [The Rude Awakening] Medical Apartheid and the Excuse to Crackdown - On the phone with an old buddy last night.
- âItâs not you, pal. The world really has gone crazy.â
- Letâs look at the âLeaders of the Free Worldâ and their mission creep. Recommended Link [Win up to 90% of your trades?]( [Click here for more...]( Right now, $6.6 trillion a day is quietly at stake. By 2025, it could be $9 trillion a day. Yes, I said trillion. And yes, I said every single day. If Iâm right yet again about the way things are headed⦠Thereâs a [way you could play this âwarâ for major profits]( for as long as it rages on. You also donât know how you could theoretically win up to 90% of your trades from now on, if these back-tested simulations prove accurate. [Click Here For Details]( Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Good morning on this fine Tuesday morning! I hope youâre well-rested for another day in the existential trenches. Iâm busy imagining just how creative, useful, and productive Iâd be if I didnât have government to worry about. The Pluck of the Irish Jerry and I hold our Facebook Messenger sessions every few months. On them, we figure all thatâs wrong with the world and how weâd fix it. Usually, our methods require merely undoing all the stupid crap governments have been doing. If you donât have a genuinely Irish friend, I suggest you get one. The candor, intelligence, and bonhomie are second to none. And when we were kids, my goodness, did the beer flow! Weâll probably be relegated to a finger of Jamesonâs the next time Iâm in Dublin, but we used to put the booze away with impunity. Jerry is one of the guys at the bar during LBS graduation day (See [MBA: Mediocre But Ambitious]( right in front of me. Heâs got white hair now; Iâve got no hair now. These things happen over 19 years. More often than not, I find myself replying to him by saying, âNo, Jerry, itâs not you. The world really has gone crazy.â With that in mind, letâs start with Ireland. Ireland Jerry fancied a cup of coffee the other day. He walked into his local cafe, walked up to the barista, and proceeded to order. The barista asked, âWould you like to sit outside or inside?â âOn the inside.â âMay I see your medical clearance?â âHuh?â âIf youâd like to sit on the inside, I need to see that youâve been vaccinated.â âItâs really happening, Seanie. Thatâs all I was thinking. Itâs really happening: medical apartheid.â Lest you get upset about the word âapartheid,â all it means is âapartnessâ in Afrikaans. Using that term here is perfectly acceptable because government officials seem to be creating second-class citizens in their own countries in a bid to force vaccinations on them. it seems many former freedom-loving peoples have elected âdemocratic socialistsâ thinking âredistribution.â Perhaps out of guilt. Perhaps out of some moral intuition. Of course, Socialists, whatever adjective you apply to them, think one thing only: âI control the means of production.â Before I go on, let me explain my two big problems with the vaccine rollout. Two Big Issues That Wonât Go Away The first issue I have with all this is base rate neglect. Base rate neglect is a cognitive error whereby too little weight is placed on the original rate of possibility (that is, the probability of A given B). The base rate differs wildly between ages and methodologies. First, letâs do methods. Case fatality rate and infection fatality rate are not the same things, though they are spoken of as they are. CFR is the number of deaths from COVID divided by confirmed cases. The IFR, the one weâd really like to know, is the number of deaths from COVID divided by total cases of COVID. Unfortunately, we donât know the total cases of COVID because many people didnât know they had; symptoms were so light. Also, many doctors didnât know what sickness to look for in the early days. The key takeaway is that confirmed cases do not equal total cases. Furthermore, confirmed cases are probably not a good proxy for total cases. In short, the two numbers may not be in the same ballpark. So when you hear a death rate of 2%, people are talking about the CFR. But if the total cases were much larger, and that may be a reasonable assumption, the IFR is probably much lower. You can read more about this [here](. In short, if my IFR is under 2% - and some believe itâs under 0.4% - do we need a vaccine at all? Next, we must look at the age differences. Again, we are using the CFR, which isnât ideal, as they do in this graph. We can see COVID disproportionately kills old folk. Just eyeballing it, one can infer the vaccine may be a good idea if youâre over 70. Under 70, I canât see why a vaccine is needed. For those whoâd retort, âYou take the vaccine to protect others!â Iâd reply, âTheyâre taking the vaccine to protect themselves. And if theyâre doing that, they donât need me to protect them.â That leads to my second issue. There was no control group for these vaccines. The control group is the people in an experiment who donât receive a vaccine or treatment. We need a control group to see if thereâs a significant difference between getting vaccinated and not getting vaccinated. With a control group, weâd be able to say, âAbove [this age, whatever it may be], get the vaccine. Below [this age], you may be doing more harm than good.â We simply do not know what that age is. If you ask me, thatâs a science-based sin. Now back to the bureaucrats gone mad. Recommended Link [Man Who Picked GOOGL, AMZN, and CSCO Issues Major âBUY Alertâ]( [Click here for more...]( The man who became a millionaire on Wall Street by the age of 25 gives his #1 buy alert. [Get It Now]( France Oh, Monsieur Le President, what have you done? In another case of medical apartheid, President Emmanuel Macron decided to force vaccination on his population by requiring health passes to enter public places. Obviously, the president didnât read my piece on the [French Revolution](. According to this morningâs [ft.com]( After a marathon debate over the weekend amid scattered street protests, the [French] parliament approved a revised version of the bill that included lower penalties for businesses that do not comply, a slower calendar for its application, and other modifications that could make the measures less effective in curbing a looming new wave of infections. For example, businesses will not be required to check peopleâs identification along with the health pass, making it easier to cheat. Healthcare workers also cannot be fired for refusing to be vaccinated, only suspended without pay. Nor can other types of workers be dismissed for not showing the pass. That means this is a nothing burger, thanks to the threat of death by guillotine. Vive la France! Australia The Federal Government in Australia has passed a bill requiring social media companies to collect 100 points of data to open an account with them. Allegedly, this is to crack down on online abuse and âto remove the veil of being anonymous.â Sounds Orwellian to me. Hereâs a [YouTube video]( explaining it on the news. Without the cover of COVID, theyâd never be able to do this. Kanada This floated across my Facebook feed, and I thought,⦠Nah. It canât be. Well, it is. [Hereâs the bill right on the Parliamentâs website](. Scary as hell. God, I miss the days when you were innocent until proven guilty. Young Justin is a chip off the old block if nothing else. There are many other government offensives taken place right now. I canât encourage you enough to protect yourself. Head to the [Rude archives]( and check out the blog posts on second passports. Theyâre no longer a luxury; theyâre essential. All the best, Sean Ring
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