Opinion: The midterms really are looking good for Democrats

Don’t be fooled by month-to-month fluctuations in the polls. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Tuesday, July 3, 2018 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist President Trump’s [approval ratings]( have risen since the beginning of the year, and the Democrats’ polling advantage for the midterm elections [has shrunk](. It’s enough to create major anxiety for anyone who’s alarmed by the Trump presidency. But [Rachel Bitecofer]( a political scientist with a historical bent, has some advice: Calm down. The Democrats’ chances to retake the House remain extremely high, [she writes in a new piece]( and those chances haven’t fallen much in recent months. Bitecofer argues that the conventional wisdom about the midterms is influenced too much by polls of all registered voters. Come November, many of them won’t actually vote. In particular, reliable Republicans are likely to vote at a low rate, and reliable Democrats at a relatively high one — as is normal when a Republican occupies the White House. As for swing voters, they don’t matter as much because there aren’t a huge number of them in today’s highly partisan atmosphere. “Keep in mind, midterm elections are low turnout elections,” Bitecofer writes in a post for the [Wason Center for Public Policy]( at Christopher Newport University in Virginia, where she is the assistant director. “And what drives turnout at the margins in off year and midterm elections is negative partisanship fueled by being locked out of power in Washington, particularly the big, white house at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.” It has happened in the last three midterm elections — in 2010 and 2014 to the Republicans’ benefit, and in 2006 to Democrats’ benefit. She points to last year’s statewide elections in Virginia as another example of this dynamic. Many analysts predicted a narrow win for Ralph Northam, the Democratic candidate, based on pre-election polls. Bitecofer [predicted]( a larger one, because she expected a turnout gap. Northam ended up winning easily, by almost 9 percentage points. For this year’s midterms, the Democrats still hold about a 7-point lead in the national polls. Bitecofer expects that will translate into a larger advantage in the actual vote, and she forecasts that Democrats will flip more than the 24 seats they need to retake the House. Her article includes a rating — will flip, likely to flip, toss up, etc. — for each seat. As for Trump’s approval rating, it remains an unimpressive 42 percent, [according to FiveThirtyEight](. Obviously, Election Day is still more than four months away, and a lot could happen by then. I asked Bitecofer what she saw as the biggest risk facing the Democrats, and she replied by email: “Biggest risk for Dems is poor strategic messaging. Only a Democrat would look at a polarizing POTUS who polls in the low 40s and decide not to make him a centerpiece of their messaging. Obama was actually popular when the Rs deployed that strategy in 2010 and 2014. You want to tap into that referendum effect as much as possible.” Related: Greg Sargent of The Plum Line advises Democrats not to get too caught up in the debate over abolishing I.C.E., the immigration-enforcement agency. Instead, as the headline [on his piece]( puts it: “Keep the focus on Trump’s cruelty and incompetence.” The full Opinion report from The Times follows. From Our Columnists Op-Ed Columnist [Trump’s Taking Us From Temper Tantrum to Trade War]( By PAUL KRUGMAN Unlike children in cages, angry allies can and will retaliate. Op-Ed Columnist [Women Might Save America Yet]( By MICHELLE GOLDBERG Under Trump, politics is being reborn in the neighborhoods. Op-Ed Columnist [The Gender War Is On! 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