On Politics: The economy is strong, so why don’t voters feel better about it?

Polling shows voters feel persistently sour about the economy, a confounding dynamic for Democrats. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP4RIAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImaXNWaWV3SW5Ccm93c2VyPXRydWUmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcGFpZF9yZWdpPTImcHJvZHVjdENvZGU9Q04mcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVyaT1ueXQlM0ElMkYlMkZuZXdzbGV0dGVyJTJGNmY4YTkxZDQtZGM1Yy01ZjU0LTljOTAtN2JmYjhiYjI1ZTk0JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjExJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDI0MDkxOCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOFcDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [On Politics](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9wb2xpdGljcz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) September 18, 2024 [SUPPORTED BY BP](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP4QKAWh0dHBzOi8vYnAuY29tL0ludmVzdGluZ0luQW1lcmljYT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUlJQVEzMjAyNCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1hbmImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1vcG8mdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1ueXQmdXRtX3R5cGU9bndzVwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [A man in jeans and a gray T-shirt shops in the cereal aisle of a grocery store in Miami Beach, Fla.] President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have led the country out of a recession and through a period of strong economic growth, but they have struggled to turn those achievements into positive feelings among voters. Scott McIntyre for The New York Times It’s the economic vibe, stupid [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0S-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvamVzcy1iaWRnb29kP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) By [Jess Bidgood](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0S-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvamVzcy1iaWRnb29kP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) The latest, with 48 days to go - Trump is [straying from the battleground states](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC9ueXJlZ2lvbi90cnVtcC1sb25nLWlzbGFuZC1uYXNzYXUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) with a rally on Long Island tonight [as he floats an array of expensive tax cuts](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TZaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC10YXgtY3V0cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). - His talk of prosecutions has [left election officials rattled](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9kb25hbGQtdHJ1bXAtMjAyNC1lbGVjdGlvbi1vZmZpY2lhbHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). - More than 100 former Republican officials [backed Vice President Kamala Harris](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9yZXB1YmxpY2FuLW9mZmljaWFscy1oYXJyaXMtZW5kb3JzZW1lbnQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), calling former President Donald Trump “unfit to serve.” The war on inflation is all but won. That was the message from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday [when it cut interest rates by half a percentage point](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2ZlZC1yZXNlcnZlLWludGVyZXN0LXJhdGUtY3V0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~), making a surprisingly large move that hands the Biden administration a big win on an issue that has caused Democrats — not to mention millions of Americans — big headaches over the last few years. It’s the latest in a run of good economic news for President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, even though the low unemployment rate [has begun to tick up](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xMi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2xheW9mZnMtam9icy1lY29ub215Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). Writing this morning, my colleague Jim Tankersley [summed up the sunny data this way](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9mZWQtcmF0ZS1jdXQtYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~): The price of gasoline has fallen [below $3 a gallon](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SxaHR0cHM6Ly9nYXNwcmljZXMuYWFhLmNvbS8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) in much of the South and Midwest and is [nearing a three-year low](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TBaHR0cHM6Ly9mcmVkLnN0bG91aXNmZWQub3JnL3Nlcmllcy9HQVNSRUdXP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) nationally. Spiking grocery prices have [slowed to a crawl](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TBaHR0cHM6Ly9mcmVkLnN0bG91aXNmZWQub3JnL2dyYXBoLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZnPTF0UXVMJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). Mortgage rates are [down more than a percentage point](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TBaHR0cHM6Ly9mcmVkLnN0bG91aXNmZWQub3JnL2dyYXBoLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZnPTF0UXVTJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) from their recent peak. [The Census Bureau reported last week](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xMC9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L3BvdmVydHktcmVwb3J0LTIwMjMtY2Vuc3VzLWJ1cmVhdS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) that the typical household income rose faster than prices last year for the first time since the pandemic. The overall inflation rate has [returned to near historically normal](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TBaHR0cHM6Ly9mcmVkLnN0bG91aXNmZWQub3JnL2dyYXBoLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZnPTF0UXY4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) levels. The real question for November, though, is whether all that good news will be enough to improve the economic vibe. Biden and Harris have led the country through a period of economic growth and job gains while inflation came down, but they have struggled to turn those achievements into broadly happy feelings among voters. The gap between the good news about the economy and the way voters are perceiving it has turned into one of the defining — and for Democrats, one of the most confounding — dynamics of this election. The polls Polling shows voters are feeling persistently sour about the economy. The [most recent national poll](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP4QDAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2ludGVyYWN0aXZlLzIwMjQvMDkvMDgvdXMvcG9saXRpY3MvdGltZXMtc2llbmEtcG9sbC1saWtlbHktZWxlY3RvcmF0ZS1jcm9zc3RhYnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) by The New York Times and Siena College found that just 2 percent of the likely electorate considered the economy to be “excellent,” while 21 percent called it “good.” Twenty-eight percent of voters called it “only fair,” while nearly half — 49 percent — rated it “poor.” One of those voters was Kelly Hunt, 56, a former nurse from Elyria, Ohio, who now relies on a fixed disability income to feed her five grandchildren. Hunt, who told me she was a registered Democrat who backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and former President Donald Trump in 2020, said none of the economic gains in the news felt as if they had filtered down to her. She goes to multiple stores to buy chicken and beef, wherever they are on sale, and takes her grandchildren out to McDonald’s only if she has coupons. “They can keep saying anything they want to, but when I go to the store and I can’t buy everything I used to and I can’t fill up my tanks, I know they’re not telling the truth,” she said. Hunt hasn’t decided whom she’ll vote for, but she knows her decision will have a lot to do with the economy. “There’s a lot of things I don’t agree with, with Donald Trump,” Hunt said, “but the economy was in a way better place with him.” Wages have not caught up Hunt illustrates a key problem for Democrats as they try to sell the good news about the economy: Inflation may well be cooling, but prices are still higher than they were during Trump’s presidency. And that’s what is shaping people’s perception of the economy. “They perceive that even though inflation is accelerating less, their wages have not caught up — that’s the fundamental problem,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who previously did polling for the Biden campaign. “They want to go back to where they were, and in some cases have an idealized view of where they were.” A MESSAGE FROM BP [This is how bp does renewable natural gas bp supports 300,000+ US jobs. Jobs like producing renewable natural gas on-site at landfills from Pennsylvania to California and 30 states in between. We’re capturing the methane from waste and turning it to renewable natural gas. Archaea Energy is one more way bp is investing in America. Learn more [BP Logo]](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP4QKAWh0dHBzOi8vYnAuY29tL0ludmVzdGluZ0luQW1lcmljYT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUlJQVEzMjAyNCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1hbmImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1vcG8mdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1ueXQmdXRtX3R5cGU9bndzVwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) I was curious how the economy of today actually stacks up against the pre-Covid economy under Trump, and so Jim Tankersley, our economic policy correspondent, kindly crunched some numbers for me. Jim found that, in September 2019, there was lower inflation, lower mortgage rates and somewhat lower unemployment than there is now. (After that, of course, came the 2020 recession, which caused negative economic growth and a huge spike in unemployment.) Today, however, there is stronger year-over-year economic growth and stronger real median household income growth over the previous calendar year. That has allowed Republicans to hammer a message about high prices, while Democrats make a more complex argument about how they lowered inflation without so far setting off a new recession. “Inflation has gone down,” Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said this afternoon. “We cannot forget where we were when we walked into this administration.” [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MzMzNTEmbGk9Q04mbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOXzIwMjQwOTE4JnN0cGU9ZGVmYXVsdCZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MzMzNTEmbGk9Q04mbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOXzIwMjQwOTE4JnN0cGU9ZGVmYXVsdCZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) Lake said that Harris had rolled out popular ideas, like [banning price gouging at grocery stores](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0T1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8xNS9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2thbWFsYS1oYXJyaXMtaW5mbGF0aW9uLXByaWNlLWdvdWdpbmcuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), but that more was needed. “We’re all over the map. We haven’t laid out a plan. Harris is trying,” Lake said, but she noted that her campaign began only about two months ago. “We’re not, as a party, identified with an economic plan to take on cost of living.” Democrats have work to do on their economic message, she said — and they need to do it fast. [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDI0MDkxOCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOFcDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDI0MDkxOCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOFcDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) On the new season of “Survivor,” 18 castaways will be abandoned on Fiji. Robert Voets/CBS There’s no escaping politics — even on ‘Survivor’ The reality show “Survivor” is generally a refuge from politics — the last place where no one cares who wins the presidential election — but it might be a little different this season, which premieres tonight. My colleague [Kellen Browning](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TBaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkva2VsbGVuLWJyb3duaW5nP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), who [wrote about this political twist](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9zdXJ2aXZvci1zZWFzb24tNDctam9uLWxvdmV0dC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) with [Alexandra Berzon](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TCaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvYWxleGFuZHJhLWJlcnpvbj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), tells us a little more. Kellen, I’m going to start with an important question. “Survivor” is still on? Yes! “Survivor” is still going strong 47 seasons in, and it still gets millions of viewers each week. Who doesn’t want to watch people brave the elements and backstab one another in a strategic game? And you are one of those viewers. I have to admit I have not seen every season start to finish. But I have seen the vast majority, and I know what happens in the rest. [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk3JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDI0MDkxOCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOFcDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk3JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDI0MDkxOCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOFcDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) Thank you very much for lending your expertise to this newsletter! Your article describes the show as one place where American politics doesn’t usually show up — but that’s not exactly the case this year. Why not? This season, “Survivor” cast Jon Lovett, a former Obama speechwriter who is a co-host of the “Pod Save America” podcast. We truly don’t know yet whether that means there will be more political discussion this season than in the past — a low bar to clear, because “Survivor” has generally not featured much political fare — but just the fact that he’s appearing on the island feels notable. What does Lovett say about why he’s joining the show? Lovett said he applied purely for the love of the show. And he said he didn’t consider during the casting process whether his starkly political background would be an asset or a liability. But in an interview with me and Alexandra, he reflected on how “Survivor” is an “experiment in both deprivation and democracy.” He said it was refreshing to have an example of players forming a democracy and voting without the nastiness of partisan politics. What has watching “Survivor” taught you about covering politics? The show’s greatest players over the years (some of whom we spoke to for this article) have stood out for their ability to cajole, charm, trick and pull on other contestants’ heartstrings. I think some of the most successful politicians demonstrate similar abilities. I have heard that everyone who watches “Survivor” secretly believes they could win. Do you think you could? I personally believe the former players who have said in interviews that it’s a brutal, difficult game. That being said, I think I would be good at the social element — forming bonds and fostering trust with allies to make it further in the game. I’m less sure how I would perform on zero sleep and minimal food. [Read more here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9zdXJ2aXZvci1zZWFzb24tNDctam9uLWxvdmV0dC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). MORE POLITICS NEWS AND ANALYSIS [[Article Image] Kenny Holston/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90ZWFtc3RlcnMtZW5kb3JzZW1lbnQtMjAyNC1lbGVjdGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Teamsters Won’t Endorse a Candidate for President in 2024 The Teamsters president, Sean O’Brien, has shown an openness to former President Donald J. Trump, dividing the powerful union. Neither candidate will be the beneficiary of its considerable organizing muscle. By Jonathan Weisman](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90ZWFtc3RlcnMtZW5kb3JzZW1lbnQtMjAyNC1lbGVjdGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [[A photo of Donald Trump, who is wearing a dark suit, red tie and American flag lapel pin. ] Kenny Holston/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9kb25hbGQtdHJ1bXAtMjAyNC1lbGVjdGlvbi1vZmZpY2lhbHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Trump’s Talk of Prosecution Rattles Election Officials The former president has long claimed, despite evidence to the contrary, that elections are corrupt. What if he carries through with threats to prosecute the officials who run them? By Nick Corasaniti and Alexandra Berzon](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9kb25hbGQtdHJ1bXAtMjAyNC1lbGVjdGlvbi1vZmZpY2lhbHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [[President Biden, in a blue suit, stands next to Vice President Harris, in a tan suit, as he speaks at a podium with the presidential seal on it.] Eric Lee/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9mZWQtcmF0ZS1jdXQtYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [A Fed Rate Cut Would Cap a Winning Streak for Biden and Harris on Prices Improved data on borrowing costs and price growth has buoyed consumers, but it might be coming too late to significantly affect the presidential race. By Jim Tankersley](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9mZWQtcmF0ZS1jdXQtYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [[Donald Trump walks out onto a stage waving with his right hand, with two American flags behind him.] Doug Mills/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xNy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1taWNoaWdhbi10b3duLWhhbGwtdGFyaWZmcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Trump Makes Big Promises, With Little Detail, for Michigan’s Auto Industry At his first campaign event since the apparent assassination attempt on Sunday, Donald J. Trump used dire language to insist that if he loses in November it would crush auto jobs. By Michael Gold](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xNy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1taWNoaWdhbi10b3duLWhhbGwtdGFyaWZmcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjQwOTE4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzNDY2MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc4MTk2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpmz61Z62ZGxmC6Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [[JD Vance stands at a lectern that bears a Trump-Vance 2024 sign. A handful of people can be seen in the background holding signs.] Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy92YW5jZS10cnVtcC1mYXNjaXN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Vance Complains About Democrats Using ‘Fascist.’ Trump Uses It Often. The Republican vice-presidential candidate blamed Democrats for political vitriol after Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt against Donald J. Trump. By Neil Vigdor](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy92YW5jZS10cnVtcC1mYXNjaXN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyNDA5MTgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTM0NjYyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzgxOTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmbPrVnrZkbGYLpSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [[A close-up of Donald Trump, wearing a navy suit, white shirt and red tie, with an American flag lapel pin.] Kenny Holston/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRozd6tP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOS8xOC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1kZW1vY3JhdHMtcmhldG9yaWMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDI0MDkxOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzQ2NjImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3MmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3ODE5NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZs-tWetmRsZgulIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [News Analysis Trump Tries to Close Off a Chief Line of Attack: That He’s a Danger to Democracy Donald Trump has tried to link Democrats’ charge that he poses a “threat to democracy” to threats on his life. 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