Upshot: Will disengaged voters show up?

Also: Taylor Swift’s popularity in context [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~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~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoMyzLP0SuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNTI0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNDM4OSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNjc2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZFy6dQZhFXe0FSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoMyzLP0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDUyNCZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNTI0VwNueXRCCmZFy6dQZhFXe0FSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [The Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoMyzLP0SzaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA1MjQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI0Mzg5Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE2NzY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZkXLp1BmEVd7QVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) May 24, 2024 ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoMyzLP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wNS8yNC91cHNob3QvdHJ1bXAtYmlkZW4tcG9sbHMtdm90ZXJzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA1MjQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI0Mzg5Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE2NzY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZkXLp1BmEVd7QVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters The Biden team faces questions of its own: Why have these voters backed away from him, and can his campaign find a way to reach them? By Nate Cohn Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS [[A photograph of the head Taylor Swift, surrounded by the heads of Michael Jackson, Beyoncé, Bruce Springsteen, Britney Spears, Madonna, Paul McCartney, Elton John and Drake.] Cassidy Araiza for The New York Times; Getty Images; Associated Press](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoMyzLP0T1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wNS8xNy9hcnRzL211c2ljL3RheWxvci1zd2lmdC1zYWxlcy10b3Vycy1ncmFtbXlzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA1MjQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI0Mzg5Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE2NzY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZkXLp1BmEVd7QVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [How Big Is Taylor Swift? As big as the Beatles? Michael Jackson? Beyoncé? We crunched the numbers. 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