Will This Sluggish September Turn Around?

Here’s why history may not repeat… Published By Money & Markets, LLC. September 11, 2024 Published By Money & Markets, LLC. September 11, 2024 [Turn Your Images On] [Turn Your Images On] From The Desk of [Matt Clark, CMSA®]( Chief Research Analyst, [Money & Markets Daily]( Will This Sluggish September Turn Around? Money & Markets Daily, If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. In investment terms, if it looks like a bad time to invest … and historical data says it’s a bad time to invest … then it’s probably just that. September has a bad rap for being a horrible month for markets. (I’ll show you why in a second.) This September hasn't shaped up any different so far. The S&P 500 is off by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq also fell 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.5% through Tuesday’s close. And markets look rough out of the gate so far today. This was coming out of an August where all three indexes grew by 2.5% or more. The biggest question for investors is whether this will be just another dogged September or if things will be different this time around. Today, I’ll examine September's historical seasonality and consider how 2024 could differ. Sell In September and Go Away I know the old investment proverb says to “sell in May and go away,” but the data doesn’t necessarily support that conclusion. [Turn Your Images On] Taking the monthly returns of the S&P 500 going back to 1928, September has the worst return average of any month at -1.2%. According to the data, the index has closed the month of September lower 56% of the time. Even May is close to flat with a -0.1% average return … and it’s followed by three summer months of strong historical gains. September 2024 didn’t start any better, with a jobs report showing sluggish growth and weak manufacturing data suggesting the U.S. economy isn’t as strong as the market has priced in. And the losses this September are across many different sectors — only consumer staples and utilities were up this month, while the other nine sectors of the S&P 500 were in decline. If you believe the traditional rationale from years past, September’s declines are due to traders returning from vacation, selling their gains and stockpiling their tax losses. I’ll be quick to point out there is no hard evidence that has ever been the case. I’d also highlight the fact that, through the first week of September, all three major indexes were up for the year: [Turn Your Images On] The S&P 500 was 14% higher, the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 13% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 7%. Some other factors could suggest this September … despite its brutal start … could be different from all the others. --------------------------------------------------------------- [[INVITATION] Adam O’Dell’s Emergency Tech Bubble Briefing]( Adam O’Dell here with an urgent and important invitation.  Tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET, I’ll be going live with an emergency tech bubble briefing…  WARNING: The decisions you make in the next few days could be what makes or breaks your financial future for years to come…  Even Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager that oversees $10 Trillion is preparing for a rare tech bubble we haven’t seen in nearly 30 years…  Please prepare before the bubble pops on September 18.  [Click here now to save your spot.]( Click the link above to automatically register for the Emergency Tech Bubble Briefing. By reserving your spot, you will receive event updates and offers. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt out at any time. [Privacy Policy](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dancin’ In September? Yes, those are lyrics from Earth, Wind & Fire’s classic “September,” and yes, I am somewhat ashamed… But this September may break this month's bad rap. Here’s why: - Broadening of the market: Big Tech dominated the start of the year, but in August, four other sectors of the market beat tech gains: Consumer Staples (+5.8%), Real Estate (+5.6%), Health Care (+5%) and Utilities (+4.4%). This tells me market gains are starting to broaden out, which is good news for its long-term positive momentum. - More investors remain bullish: According to the most recent survey of investors by the American Association of Individual Investors, 45.3% remained bullish on the broader market as of September 4, 2024, compared to just 24.9% who were bearish. While slightly down from the 51.2% bullish reading the prior week, this is still a stronger sentiment than four weeks ago. - The Federal Reserve cut is coming: The Fed is widely expected to cut its target benchmark interest rate next week. The biggest question is by how much. Investors will welcome any cut  … and it will raise expectations of more cuts before the end of the year (more good news for stocks). What It All Means: There is no guarantee that this September will be any better or worse than previous years. The things working against another lackluster September are history and a rough start to the month. However, all three indexes cut their previous week’s losses on Monday, and by my count, the factors leading to a “good” September outweigh those suggesting a “bad” one. And if you want to make the most of this September, I urge you to [attend Adam O'Dell's free live presentation tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET.]( I mentioned above that investors are shifting away from Big Tech, which is creating a healthier bull market with massive opportunity. Adam has been on top of this topic for months, and he's preparing for two catalysts that are set to drive money into a different segment of stocks. He'll cover it all in his Emergency Tech Bubble Briefing tomorrow. [Click here to make sure you're one of the first to be informed.]( Until next time… Safe trading, [Matt Clark, CMSA®]( Chief Research Analyst, [Money & Markets Daily]( Click the links above to automatically register for the Emergency Tech Bubble Briefing. By reserving your spot, you will receive event updates and offers. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt out at any time. [Privacy Policy](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Check Out More From Money & Markets Daily: - [BUFFETT ONLY WISHES HE COULD BUY THESE STOCKS]( - [POLL: IS THE ELECTION CHANGING THE WAY YOU INVEST?]( - [WHY DID BUFFETT SELL 15% OF HIS BAC STOCK?]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Turn Your Images On]( Privacy Policy The Money & Markets, 702 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. To ensure that you receive future issues of Money & Markets, please add info@mb.moneyandmarkets.com to your address book or [whitelist]( within your spam settings. For customer service questions or issues, please contact us for assistance. The mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so please do not reply. Your feedback is very important to us so if you would like to contact us with a question or comment, please click here: [( Legal Notice: This work is based on what we've learned as financial journalists. 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The mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so please do not reply. Your feedback is very important to us so if you would like to contact us with a question or comment, please click here: [( Legal Notice: This work is based on what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. Nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Certain investments carry large potential rewards but also large potential risk. Don't trade in these markets with money you can't afford to lose. Money & Markets permits editors of a publication to recommend a security to subscribers that they own themselves. However, in no circumstance may an editor sell a security before our subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. Any exit after a buy recommendation is made and prior to issuing a sell notification is forbidden. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. (c) 2024 Money & Markets, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, (electronic or otherwise) in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money & Markets. 702 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. (TEL: 800-684-8471) Remove your email from this list: [Click here to Unsubscribe](