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January 25, 2020
The Big Takeaway from This Week's Exclusive Gathering
By Tim Melvin
Dear Reader,
The global elite piled into Davos, Switzerland, this week for the annual World Economic Forum conference.
They all arrived separately by private jet and took motorcades of limos and car services to the meeting so they could be lectured on the evils of capitalisms and climate change.
As much as the event organizers like to convince themselves that this meeting makes a big difference in the world, what happens in Davos doesn't make much of an impact on the markets.
David Solomon, the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group ([NYSE:GS]() pretty much summed up the mood of this year's gathering, telling Bloomberg that "I would say that there will be booms and busts again at some point, although I don't see one anytime soon. I'd say I see, and I hear what I call kind of a confident, middle-of-the-road view of the current economic environment. The overwhelming likely scenario is that the economy chugs along this year."
I've heard talking heads all week yammer on about how the fact that the mood was pretty upbeat was a good sign for the financial markets in 2020.
Of course, everyone was in a pessimistic view at Davos last year, and the year turned out pretty well.
The mood in 2018 was optimistic as well, and stocks went out to be flat on the year.
Trying to guess what the markets will do by measuring the mood of a week-long party is the worst kind of prediction someone can make, [and you know what I think about predictions](.
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The Headlines Miss the Real Events
It's important to keep in mind that this event is, and always has been, political theater.
It's a big show intended to entertain the political elite and make its organizers and the media feel more important than they actually are.
Each year there is some do-good theme like "inclusivity" or "globalization."
This year the theme was climate change with appearances from Greta Thunberg and Price Charles telling us all about how we have to change our ways and lower our lifestyles before we all die in fiery blaze sometime very, very soon.
There also seemed to be a contest to see which corporate leader could be the most "woke" and promise to change the evils of capitalism.
The only person who stood up for capitalism was Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase ([NYSE:JPM](), who told interviewers that "Most state-owned enterprises don't do a particularly good job. You look around the world, and they become corrupt over time."
And while all the cameras are focused on the stage, the real event is taking place in conference rooms and cocktail lounges around town.
Global political and business leaders are making deals, forging alliances, and getting up to all sorts of skullduggery.
There's no problem with that.
Having a stage where global leaders can have a chat in an unstructured environment has probably solved a lot of minor conflicts and disputes over the years.
Getting two CEOs together to talk about possible merger deals or partnerships can have positive outcomes for shareholders.
I'm sure a lot of deals get done at Davos every year. I'm sure political solutions get worked out every year as well.
Friends are made, contacts renewed, and it's probably a wonderfully useful networking event for the global 1% and politicians...
But very little of the grandstanding ever makes a dent on Wall Street we can use, so when you turn on your TV or read your newspaper and see headlines coming out of Davos, the noise likely isn't worth your time.
We won't get any excellent investment insight or ideas that will change our lives.
Instead of chasing headlines and trying to predict what will happen in the markets, we will listen to the numbers and use them to find explosive gains from undervalued companies and overreactions from the thundering herd.
There are a few conferences that are worth our time and attention. I'm at one now to discuss [bank M&A activity]( out in Phoenix.
I will be at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Services Conference this year in Amelia Island, Florida, and I'll also be attending several REIT conferences and quantitative investing events around the country in the months ahead.
All of these events will meet my two mandatory requirements for conference attendance that Davos fails to meet...
The location will feature warm weather, and they will help me make money for myself and my readers here at Max Wealth.
Have a great weekend,
Tim Melvin
Here's what else I'm following...
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