Mount Oread Messenger: September 21, 2020

COVID-19 data and a new forecast Email not displaying correctly? [View the web version]( [Mount Oread Messenger]( Good morning! Friday afternoon, KU unveiled a [new COVID-19 forecasting tool]( and confirmed 41 new cases of the virus since it last released data on Tuesday, which brought the university's total confirmed case count to 882. The new forecasting tool, created by KU's Pandemic Medical Advisory Team, is meant to project what the outlook will be two weeks from now, assuming current trends hold. The modeling currently predicts that case counts will fall to around 6 new cases per day by Oct. 2 and that the cumulative total will be around 905 on the same day. KU Chancellor Douglas Girod made clear in a campus message announcing the forecasting model that while it's certainly a nice tool to have available, predictive modeling is inherently vulnerable to miscalculations, especially in an unprecedented health crisis. Girod: "The reality is, there is no precedent for our current situation, meaning there is no pre-existing model or set of assumptions that neatly fit our circumstances,” he said. “Like universities across the country, we are learning every day about transmission patterns and mitigation strategies, and we will continue to respond to new information accordingly.” *** Of note from Friday's data: From Sept. 10 to Sept. 16, the most recent seven-day period for which results are available, the KU community tested positive for COVID-19 at a rate of 4.32%, down significantly from Tuesday’s seven-day report of a 10.9% positivity rate. [KU’s dashboard,]( the university said, includes data from Clinical Reference Laboratory in Lenexa (the commercial lab conducting KU's saliva-based testing); Lawrence-Douglas County Public Health; LMH Health; Watkins Health Services; and the KU Health System. KU's next release of COVID-19 data will come on Tuesday, and short-term forecasts will be delivered each Friday for the rest of the semester. That's all for today, see you on Wednesday! [Strong Hall]( [KU’s new 14-day COVID-19 projection model says daily case count will fall; university reports 41 new cases]( The model predicted that in 14 days, on Oct. 2, KU’s daily case count will have fallen to around six cases per day, with the cumulative total around 905 cases. Also in Friday's data: KU tested positive for the virus at 6% lower than its last reported seven-day stretch. [Read the full story here]( EVENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON - Monday, September 21: Virtual town hall with KU's Task Force on Community-Responsive Public Safety, 5:30-7:30 p.m. ([Zoom information here]() This event will be open to all members of the public and the entire 27-member task force. Currently it's the last publicly scheduled event before the group wraps up its work in November. IN OTHER KU NEWS [Reggie Robinson, former KU administrator and Board of Regents leader, dies at 63]( Robinson, a renowned public servant, held numerous roles at the University of Kansas in addition to serving as the president and CEO of the Kansas Board of Regents from 2002-2010. He left KU in November to take his "dream job" as president of the Kansas Health Foundation. Robinson was 63. [Reggie Robinson]( [KU expands symptomatic testing capacity with drive-thru swab clinic in Naismith Hall parking lot]( Thanks to a new drive-thru clinic in the parking lot of Naismith Hall, the KU now has the ability to offer an additional 50 COVID-19 tests per day specifically for those showing symptoms of the respiratory virus. [Testing sign]( If you enjoy the Mount Oread Messenger, you can [subscribe to receive it here.]( To reach Mount Oread Messenger author Conner Mitchell, please email cmitchell@ljworld.com or call 785-832-6388. Tips can also be submitted at [Conner's tip form]( or at his secure email address,[connermitchell@protonmail.com](mailto:connermitchell@protonmail.som). [subscribe to the lawrence journal-world here]( This message was sent by the Lawrence Journal-World. You are receiving this because at some point in the past you shared your email address with the Journal-World To opt-out of emails like this, click the link below. [Click here to unsubscribe and manage your email subscriptions.]( Lawrence Journal-World PO Box 888, Lawrence, KS 66044