Essential California: For the Joshua trees of Joshua Tree National Park, time may be running out

[2e8a1c89-a306-4ba9-8ecd-4b91adb267e9.jpg] Essential California [Send to friend](mailto:?subject=Essential California: For the Joshua trees of Joshua Tree National Park, time may be running out&body= | [Open in browser]( Presented by* Good morning, and welcome to the [Essential California newsletter](. It’s Wednesday, Aug. 7, and I’m writing from Los Angeles. Joshua Tree National Park is barely 40 miles from Palm Springs if you take Highway 62, but the surreal landscape of the park has arguably more in common with the moon than the low-slung midcentury homes to the west. It’s a stark desert tableau, framed by giant boulders and looming rock formations so fantastical that one is tempted to believe in either God or aliens, if only to explain their origins. The park has otherworldly vistas, vast expanses and, of course, the eponymous, impossibly limbed Joshua trees, which [National Geographic has characterized]( as “an international symbol of the American desert.” Joshua trees are native to the American Southwest and grow wild only here in the Mojave Desert and other parts of the Southwest. They are not actually trees at all but a member of the agave family, which rarely appears in such tree-like formations. Their species dates to the Pleistocene era, when glaciers still covered giant swaths of the globe. The humble Yucca brevifolia has outlived too many human civilizations to count, but time may finally be running out for the Joshua trees of Joshua Tree National Park, unless drastic climate action is taken. [A new study]( conducted by the UC Riverside Center for Conservation Biology looked at how the park’s “trees” would fare under various climate scenarios, and the results are bleak. In a “business-as-usual scenario” where little is done to stem the tides of climate change, the scientists’ modeling “indicated an almost complete elimination of Joshua trees from the park” by the end of the century. [See also: [“Why Joshua Tree National Park may be saying goodbye to most of its iconic trees in the next 81 years”]( in the San Bernardino Sun] “We have a range of scenarios,” said Lynn Sweet, a UC Riverside plant ecologist and the lead author on the study. “If there’s global action on climate change, we might preserve [the] habitat. And if not, we might see it disappear.” The scientists tied their models to emissions scenarios put out by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and future forecasts based on those emissions scenarios created by expert climatologists. Their models looked at the future of Joshua trees in the park for the years 2070 to 2099. By the year 2100, “it could look like a forest of dead trees and no new trees,” Sweet said. Or, “it could look like just a few trees hanging on. We’re not really sure.” In their “pessimistic scenario,” we could see average hot temperatures in the summer be about five to nine degrees Fahrenheit hotter in the park, with perhaps as much as three to seven inches less rainfall per year. “Which is a lot,” she said. “If Joshua trees could survive those conditions, they would already be in them.” [See also: [“Bigger wildfires. Worsening droughts. More disease. How climate change is battering California”]( in the Los Angeles Times] Of course, in a turn-of-the-next-century California wrought by worst-case scenario climate predictions, a Joshua Tree National Park tragically devoid of living Joshua trees would probably be among the least of our concerns. (Deadly [heat spells]( surging [sea levels]( [apocalyptic wildfires]( and [destructive droughts]( certainly come to mind.) But a future of such dystopian proportions can be difficult to wrap our heads around. Put all of the above in a single logline and you can almost imagine the studio executive telling a Hollywood screenwriter that it’s too many disasters for one movie. The audience will tune out. So instead, picture a nearly 800,000-acre park where a towering and notoriously tough succulent has survived for millennia, now punctuated by dead Joshua trees. “Our goal was to give people a really tangible look at what might happen if we don’t reduce carbon emissions,” Sweet said. And now, here’s what’s happening across California: Advertisement by Wear Atoms* The Ideal Everyday Shoe Is Here Atoms are the world’s first shoes to come in quarter sizes for [effortless fit, form + function](. See why Vogue calls Atoms “the most thoughtfully designed shoe ever” and Esquire says “Your secret-weapon sneakers may have just arrived.” * This advertiser has no control over editorial decisions or content. End of advertisement. 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Neighbors disagree. (Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times) Malibu wanted to crack down on huge mansions. But fire losses could bring even bigger homes. [Los Angeles Times]( Pasadena is clamping down on hookah restaurants, citing a decade-old but seldom enforced law meant to curb tobacco use in the city. [Pasadena Star-News]( Your support helps us deliver the news that matters most. [Subscribe to the Los Angeles Times.]( POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT With the focus on Trump and “the Squad,” freshmen Democrats in California swing districts struggle to stay on message. [Los Angeles Times]( More than 1,000 public pensions in California are so big that they exceed IRS limits. [Sacramento Bee]( CRIME AND COURTS Two Temecula residents face murder charges in the fatal shooting of LAPD Officer Juan Diaz. [Los Angeles Times]( HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT A 3-foot snake slithered its way into the Marin County courthouse before being captured by a sheriff’s deputy. California living has never been for the faint of heart. [Marin Independent Journal]( Temperatures soared to 121 degrees in Palm Springs on Monday, toppling a 50-year-old maximum temperature record. [Desert Sun]( How deadly is California’s I-5 in summer? A report on dangerous highways has answers. [Los Angeles Times]( CALIFORNIA CULTURE Here are the most ridiculous Burning Man items for sale on Craigslist in the Bay Area, including a mustache-wearing yurt and a pair of 7-foot neon toe sculptures. The latter, which are for sale in Emeryville for $800, would be a “perfect addition to your foot fetish Burning Man theme camp,” according to the Craigslist description. (Read our previous Essential California Burning Man coverage [here]( [SFGate]( Casting director David Rubin was elected the 35th president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the group’s board of governors announced Tuesday. He’s now charged with helping to lead the film industry’s most prestigious institution through the next chapter of its transformation. [Los Angeles Times]( The biggest recycling store chain in California just closed its doors, shutting down 284 sites throughout the state. Here’s why. [Sacramento Bee]( Sad pop priestess Lana Del Rey name-checked Fresno in [a new song about gun violence]( but she will not be making a stop in the Central Valley city on her next tour through California. [Fresno Bee]( CALIFORNIA ALMANAC Los Angeles: sunny, 82. San Diego: partly sunny, 74. San Francisco: windy, 68. San Jose: sunny, 77. Sacramento: sunny, 90. [More weather is here.]( AND FINALLY “We die. That may be the meaning of life. But we do language. That may be the measure of our lives.” – Toni Morrison If you have a memory or story about the Golden State, [share it with us](mailto:julia.wick@latimes.com?subject=California%20Memory). (Please keep your story to 100 words.) Please let us know what we can do to make this newsletter more useful to you. Send comments, complaints, ideas and unrelated book recommendations to [Julia Wick](mailto:julia.wick@latimes.com). Follow her on Twitter [@Sherlyholmes](. [Email](mailto:?subject=Essential California: For the Joshua trees of Joshua Tree National Park, time may be running out&body=[Twitter]( [Sign up for Newsletters]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Unsubscribe]( | Copyright © 2019 Los Angeles Times | 2300 E. Imperial Highway, El Segundo, CA 90245. | 1-800-LA-TIMES                                 Â