A Presidential Prediction

Who's got the edge? [For the best experience, read in browser.]( [Wake-Up Call] [by Katie Couric Media] October 3, 2024 Good morning! Here’s what’s coming up in today’s illuminating edition: - [“The prophet of presidential elections” shares his 2024 prediction]( - [Ezra Klein and Liz Plank dish on the layered dynamics at play]( on the campaign trail - [I connect with Sen. Amy Klobuchar]( about the importance of early breast cancer screening — and how to make it more accessible - [Kira Stokes shares an energizing bodyweight workout]( Read on for more, and to all celebrating the Rosh Hashanah: L’Shana Tovah!   In the News [Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shaking hands]( Getty Images Historian Allan Lichtman has a unique talent for forecasting who will win the presidency. In fact, he correctly predicted 9 out of 10 of the most recent elections (the only exception was Al Gore in 2000, who won the popular vote but ultimately lost to George W. Bush). In an interview with me on Wednesday, he detailed his tried-and-true method, which is based on 13 “keys to the White House” — a set of true-false questions that assess the electorate without relying on pundits and polls. “I look at the fundamental forces that explain the results of presidential elections,” he said. “And the big message of the keys that does make it unique is that it’s governing, not campaigning, that counts.” So who will the winner be? [Here's Lichtman's verdict](, plus whether he thinks there will be an "October surprise." [READ MORE]( PASS THIS STORY ALONG: mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Wake-Up%20Call%21&body=https%3A%2F%2Fkatiecouric.com%2Fvideo%2Fkatie-talks-to%2Fwho-will-win-the-2024-election-allan-lichtman%2F   More Stories [Jerome Powell on a podium in front of American flags]( Getty Images Donald Trump "resorted to crimes" to stay in office after the 2020 election, per a new filing from special counsel Jack Smith's team. It argues that Trump acted “fundamentally” as a private candidate, not as president, when he tried to overturn his loss. The filing includes FBI analysis showing that Trump was scrolling Twitter while officers were being assaulted at the Capitol on Jan. 6. Israel hit central Beirut early this morning, killing at least six people. More than 1,300 have died (including a U.S. resident) since the start of Israel's bombardment, and foreign nationals are fleeing. Iran has warned of a broader response, and fears of an all-out war between the nations are growing. President Biden has stressed that he doesn't support an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Mark Chavez, one of two doctors charged in connection with Matthew Perry’s death, has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to distribute ketamine as part of a plea agreement. He faces up to 10 years in prison. Sentencing is scheduled for April 2. OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in a new funding deal that brings the tech company's valuation to $157 billion — nearly double what it was nine months ago. This comes alongside reports that the ChatGPT developer is restructuring to become a for-profit company. Voting has begun for Alaska's Fat Bear Week after a short delay due to bear #469 attacking and killing bear #402 on Monday. It's not yet clear what sparked bear #469's animus towards the contestant.   In Focus [Katie Couric and Amy Klobuchar]( Getty Images / KCM For the first week of Breast Cancer Awareness Month, I sat down with Sen. Amy Klobuchar — who, like me, delayed a mammogram because of the pandemic and was later diagnosed with breast cancer. We talked about the Find It Early Act, a bill I've been working on that would require states to cover additional screenings for the millions of women with dense breasts. She got real about why this legislation is so needed, the obstacles to passing it, and how she's doing after her treatment — [give it a watch right here](.   Must-Reads [Joan Vassos in a blue dress and orange sweater tied around her shoulders sits on bleachers]( Let's Kick It On this week's episode of The Golden Bachelorette, the men get vulnerable and Joan breaks down her walls. Here's what happened. [Read More »]( [Illustration of a woman slumped over the treadmill]( Pep in Your Step Here's your other wake-up call: Kira Stokes has a full-body workout that will boost circulation and give you some much-needed energy. [Read More »]( [Close-up of raisin challah]( Break Bread Make this Jewish New Year extra sweet with this rum raisin challah recipe. (It'll be just as tasty even if you don't soak the raisins overnight.) [Read More »](   Tune In Next Question is back, and I can't believe it's our 10th season! As we head into the home stretch of the presidential race, my podcast will provide much-needed insight from smart people I admire — with a dose of levity, of course. Our first episode is one you can't miss. I chatted with NYT opinion columnist Ezra Klein and feminist writer (and friend of KCM) Liz Plank. We dive deep into the gender dynamics at play during this campaign cycle, what's driving Kamala Harris' reluctance to sit down with the press, and more. [Check it out!]( [LISTEN HERE](   Shop Our Favorites [Spanx AirEssentials white quarter-zip and tan lululemon ABC pants]( KCM When I'm traveling, I throw on [Spanx's AirEssentials half-zip]( and sweatpants. The 'fit is so comfy for those long flights (and you're likely to catch me sporting it around the neighborhood, too). For everyday wear, Molner loves lululemon's ABC pants. You can score a deal on them, plus a slew of other finds, in the brand's [We Made Too Much section](.   Thanks for reading! Want to stay connected? 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