Why a Rate Cut Right Now Could Be Bearish — and Inflationary

[] Join me at 5 p.m. ET for “30 Minutes of Awesome”! [] [] [] [LIVE at 5 P.M. ET TODAY: “30 MINUTES OF AWESOME”]( [Bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time]( Why a Rate Cut Right Now Could Be Bearish — and Inflationary One of the biggest mistakes I see traders making over and over is not knowing when to get out of a trade that isn't working. They get married to their position, doubling and tripling down as it moves against them. This is a surefire way to rack up huge losses. [As I said in today’s edition of Morning Monster…]( It's not being wrong that costs you big money. It's staying wrong. You have to be willing to admit when a trade isn't going your way and cut your losses. Don't stubbornly hold on, hoping it will turn around. More often than not, that will lead to your position spiraling out of control. Instead, have a clear plan for where you'll get out if the trade goes against you. Set your stop loss and stick to it. And don't be afraid to take the loss — it's better to lose a little than lose a lot. As I mentioned, if you stay wrong, you're going to ride it all the way down here... And if you double down here, then you're really screwed. That isn’t true 100% of the time. And, sure, you’ll occasionally be able to crawl your way back into the black. But far more often than not, you’ll only get yourself into more trouble. Trading is all about managing risk. You have to be willing to take small losses to protect your capital. That way, you live to trade another day. The traders who get greedy and refuse to cut their losses are the ones who end up blowing up their accounts. That said, let’s talk about the Fed’s next move… Of course, one of the big events we're all watching this week is the FOMC meeting and the Fed's decision on interest rates. [As I said in the video,]( I think the market is expecting a 0.5% rate cut. But I'm not so sure that's what we'll get. The Fed aggressively raised rates to combat inflation. And right now, the real Fed funds rate is a full 1.8 percentage points above the market rate. That's a huge gap, and it's highly unusual. Historically, when the Fed's rate has gotten that far out of sync with the market, it's been a sign of financial stress. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed only does a 0.25% cut on Wednesday. That could disappoint the market, which is pricing in a larger 0.5% cut. If that happens, we could see a sell-off as traders are let down. Ultimately, I think any rate cut, even a smaller one, is going to be inflationary. That's bearish for the dollar, which is already showing signs of weakness. So I'd be cautious about taking on too much long exposure ahead of the FOMC decision. Trading is all about managing risk and having the discipline to cut your losses. It's not easy, but it's essential if you want to be successful in the markets long-term. And with a big Fed decision looming, it's more important than ever to have a strategic, unemotional approach. I'll be watching the markets closely this week and sharing my insights on my two shows. And don't forget, I'll be doing a live stream at 5 p.m. today taking your requests, so be sure to tune in at the link below! Let me know if you have any other questions. [Go Here By 5 O’clock for the Show!]( [] _____________________________________________________ [] All Eyes Are on Fed Chair Powell But what if the so-called “experts” are all looking at rate cuts the wrong way? See, conventional wisdom says cuts are bullish... "Lower rates, higher stocks!" [But dig a little deeper, and you'll find a different story.]( One that's played out three times in recent memory. • The dot-com boom and bust. • The 2008 Financial Crisis. • The 2020 COVID crash. Each time, rate cuts weren't the savior... They were the warning bell before a major market correction. [] With cuts on the horizon again, we're at a pivotal moment... And Roger Scott’s dug up an important revelation you’ll want to see with your own eyes. He’s laid out all the details here, including his “battle plan” before and after the Fed’s announcement… Plus how he’s altering his trading strategy based on what’s ahead. If you’d like to “steal” Roger’s ideas to see how you might apply them to your own situation… [Get the Roadmap Here!]( [] _____________________________________________________ [] Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Kirby Corp. (KEX) This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. You can find full details on exactly how this works by scrolling down further in this newsletter. • KEX is a new potential entry. Target: 134.98 Stop below: 101.74 • KEX has a historical win rate of 87.5% • KEX has a profit factor of 2.891 • KEX trades last 40 trading days on average over 40 trades since 1976. This is for informational and educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers: 1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line. 2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years! [You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5]( — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday! [Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!]( I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader. I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [LIVE at 5 P.M. ET TODAY: “30 MINUTES OF AWESOME”]( [Bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time]( Why a Rate Cut Right Now Could Be Bearish — and Inflationary One of the biggest mistakes I see traders making over and over is not knowing when to get out of a trade that isn't working. They get married to their position, doubling and tripling down as it moves against them. This is a surefire way to rack up huge losses. [As I said in today’s edition of Morning Monster…]( It's not being wrong that costs you big money. It's staying wrong. You have to be willing to admit when a trade isn't going your way and cut your losses. Don't stubbornly hold on, hoping it will turn around. More often than not, that will lead to your position spiraling out of control. Instead, have a clear plan for where you'll get out if the trade goes against you. Set your stop loss and stick to it. And don't be afraid to take the loss — it's better to lose a little than lose a lot. As I mentioned, if you stay wrong, you're going to ride it all the way down here... And if you double down here, then you're really screwed. That isn’t true 100% of the time. And, sure, you’ll occasionally be able to crawl your way back into the black. But far more often than not, you’ll only get yourself into more trouble. Trading is all about managing risk. You have to be willing to take small losses to protect your capital. That way, you live to trade another day. The traders who get greedy and refuse to cut their losses are the ones who end up blowing up their accounts. That said, let’s talk about the Fed’s next move… Of course, one of the big events we're all watching this week is the FOMC meeting and the Fed's decision on interest rates. [As I said in the video,]( I think the market is expecting a 0.5% rate cut. But I'm not so sure that's what we'll get. The Fed aggressively raised rates to combat inflation. And right now, the real Fed funds rate is a full 1.8 percentage points above the market rate. That's a huge gap, and it's highly unusual. Historically, when the Fed's rate has gotten that far out of sync with the market, it's been a sign of financial stress. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed only does a 0.25% cut on Wednesday. That could disappoint the market, which is pricing in a larger 0.5% cut. If that happens, we could see a sell-off as traders are let down. Ultimately, I think any rate cut, even a smaller one, is going to be inflationary. That's bearish for the dollar, which is already showing signs of weakness. So I'd be cautious about taking on too much long exposure ahead of the FOMC decision. Trading is all about managing risk and having the discipline to cut your losses. It's not easy, but it's essential if you want to be successful in the markets long-term. And with a big Fed decision looming, it's more important than ever to have a strategic, unemotional approach. I'll be watching the markets closely this week and sharing my insights on my two shows. And don't forget, I'll be doing a live stream at 5 p.m. today taking your requests, so be sure to tune in at the link below! Let me know if you have any other questions. [Go Here By 5 O’clock for the Show!]( [] _____________________________________________________ [] All Eyes Are on Fed Chair Powell But what if the so-called “experts” are all looking at rate cuts the wrong way? See, conventional wisdom says cuts are bullish... "Lower rates, higher stocks!" [But dig a little deeper, and you'll find a different story.]( One that's played out three times in recent memory. - The dot-com boom and bust. - The 2008 Financial Crisis. - The 2020 COVID crash. Each time, rate cuts weren't the savior... They were the warning bell before a major market correction. [] With cuts on the horizon again, we're at a pivotal moment... And Roger Scott’s dug up an important revelation you’ll want to see with your own eyes. He’s laid out all the details here, including his “battle plan” before and after the Fed’s announcement… Plus how he’s altering his trading strategy based on what’s ahead. If you’d like to “steal” Roger’s ideas to see how you might apply them to your own situation… [Get the Roadmap Here!]( [] _____________________________________________________ [] Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Kirby Corp. (KEX) This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. You can find full details on exactly how this works by scrolling down further in this newsletter. - KEX is a new potential entry. Target: 134.98 Stop below: 101.74 - KEX has a historical win rate of 87.5% - KEX has a profit factor of 2.891 - KEX trades last 40 trading days on average over 40 trades since 1976. This is for informational and educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers: 1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line. 2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years! [You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5]( — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday! [Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!]( I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader. I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](