Meanwhile in an upside down and backwards alternative universeâ¦
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ISSUE JUNE 27, 2020
[leading]
Interesting, what do you think?
âIf you donât have a tail hedge, I suggest not being in the market weâre facing a huge amount of uncertainty.âÂ
Thatâs âBlack Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbableâ author Nassim Nicholas Taleb offering his view on the risks swirling in the market and a growing lack of clarity about the future in the era of a deadly pandemic that has created a public-health and economic crisis.
Speaking during an interview on CNBC on Friday, the popular author, shared the notion that investors should be hedged against so-called âtail risk,â which refers to extreme events that have a low probability of happening in a distribution of outcomes. Taleb has spent his career chronicling so-called âtail riskâ events, which have a tiny probability of occurrence, but nonetheless take place more often than one would guess, and therefore often are underestimated by the broader investment community.
Taleb said the current market landscape, perhaps, has amplified uncertainties, even if the stock market has been mostly rising, despite signs of a spreading COVID-19 pandemic that is re-intensifying in places and threatening to de-rail projections for a âV-shaped,â or quick, economic recovery.
âWe are printing money like thereâs no tomorrow,â Taleb said, referencing the Federal Reserveâs efforts to ease the financial pain of the epidemic by delivering trillions of stimulus to the market. The Fed also cut interest rates to a superlow range of 0% and 0.25% back in March, and may not have a lot of room to further ease the economic pain of the viral outbreak and other problems that could arise amid this crisis.
âAnd COVID seems to be there even if the pandemicâ¦dies down, you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,â he said.
Hedge funds that are designed to benefit from tail risks have enjoyed a remarkable run-up in the age of COVID-19.
For example, the Cboe Eurekahedge Tail Risk Volatility Hedge Fund Index has returned 48.19% so far this year. By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off nearly 12% thus far in 2020, the S&P 500 index is down 6.2% and the Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 10% thus far in 2020.
Meanwhile, Universa, managed by Mark Spitznagel, returned an eye-popping 4,000% return in his tail-risk fund during the height of the pandemic. Taleb also has been an adviser on that fund.
To be sure, protecting your portfolio from such tail risks, rather than betting on them, may be key. Investment funds that have attempted to solely wager large sums on market turmoil have tended to underperform, the Wall Street Journal writes. Thatâs because those bets on sharp declines have failed to benefit from subsequent rebounds in the market.
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[logic]
Meanwhile in an upside down and backwards alternative universeâ¦
Black Lives Matter protesters gathered outside of the White House on Friday where they shouted and recited chants, including a quote from convicted murderer Assata Shakur.
Â
âI need this to be loud, real loud,â said an unidentified individual with a megaphone before launching into the chant.
âIt is our duty to fight for our freedom,â shouted the woman as the crowd repeated her. âIt is our duty to win. We must love each other and support each other. We have nothing to lose but our chains. We have nothing to lose but our chains.â
The chant is a quote from Assata Shakur, a former member of the Black Liberation Army who was convicted of murder in the events of the 1973 shooting of State Trooper Werner Foerster on the New Jersey Turnpike.
[liberal]
The woman then announced that she wanted to recite the chant once more âfor Tamir Rice.â
A separate incident that occurred Thursday night included Black Lives Matter protesters harassing a black officer, calling him a âf*ggotâ and a âbitch.â
âYou a bitch. You a bitch,â said one protester. Other protesters began chanting,
âWho do you protect?â and hurled insults at the officer.
Itâs obvious that those who feel âoppressedâ in 2020 America have no sense of history, have never travelled or learned about the incredibly racist and oppressive regimes and dirty little corner of the world.
Butâ¦whatever, they donât care to add common sense to their recipe.
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[trumpspacer]
As more intel surfaces it is becoming very obvious that these are not small group home grown efforts on the side of the anarchists.
The evidence is pointing to bad actors who are propping up and even training these groups. Some are subversive agents of hostile governments and others are powerful wealthy figures like the devil himself, George Soros.
PresidentTrump and Attorney General William Barr both took new steps on Friday to combat the extremists who have been wreaking havoc across the country in recent weeks and to protect Americaâs monuments.
Trump tweeted late on Friday, âI just had the privilege of signing a very strong Executive Order protecting American Monuments, Memorials, and Statues â and combatting recent Criminal Violence. Long prison terms for these lawless acts against our Great Country!â
Barr announced the creation of a new task force to take on the anti-government extremists who have been causing much of the destruction in recent weeks.
âI am today directing the creation of a task force devoted to countering violent anti-government extremists,â Barr wrote in a memo.
Barr specifically mentioned Antifa and other groups in his memo and noted that âsome of these violent extremists, moreover, may be fortified by foreign entities seeking to sow chaos and disorder in our country.â
âThe task force will also provide training and identify resources to help law enforcement at all levels identify, investigate, and prosecute violent acts by anti-government extremists,â the memo said. âThe ultimate goal of the task force will be not only to enable prosecutions of extremists who engage in violence, but to understand these groups well enough that we can stop such violence before it occurs and ultimately eliminate it as a threat to public safety and the rule of law.â
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[crazy]
On the same day White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox News the trade deal with China is "over" (and immediately, the White House reversed Navarro's comments because of market gyrations) - a massive show off force, likely directed at China, took place Monday at a Japanese airbase involving stealth fighter jets.Â
Navarro's comments suggest the phase one trade deal is trouble. It also signals tensions are rising between both countries over the origins of COVID-19 and China's assertion of power over Hong Kong.
At the moment, China is lagging significantly behind phase one targets it promised, and as we've noted, Chinese buyers ditched U.S. markets for Brazilian ones.
Now it's hard to say if around the time Navarro made the comments that a fleet of warplanes conducting an "elephant walk" at the Misawa base in Japan was connected - but it certainly implies tensions are heating up.Â
Readers may recall the U.S. has built an "F-35 friends circle" in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly around China. So when an elephant walk and or military exercise is conducted in the area, it's usually to stimulate war with China.Â
According to Misawa Air Base, F-35 stealth jets from the Japan Air Self-Defense (JASDF) joined the U.S. Air Force F-16s, MC-130Js, and U.S. Navy EA-18Gs, C-12 and P-8A in an elephant walk, which is an exercise that prepares a military base for an incoming attack.Â
The objective is to have all fighters and bombers in the air within fifteen minutes.Â
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