The Housing Nightmare Is Developing Right On Schedule

Things are about to get super bad [View in browser]( [The Juice Logo] BROUGHT TO YOU BY: [Logo]( The Housing Nightmare Is Developing Right On Schedule We will return to covering the “alternative” side of investing in tomorrow’s edition of The Juice. To catch up on recent posts in that area, see today’s Freshly Squeezed section at the bottom of the page. But today, we focus on housing. Because the scenario The Juice has been predicting and detailing for roughly two years now is showing signs of playing out. It might have gotten lost in the Thanksgiving holiday shuffle, but the headlines last week blared like this: Homebuyer demand for mortgages jumps 12% after first interest rate drop in over 2 months We’re here to tell you that the “interest rate drop” was nothing. On the 30-year mortgage, we went from a November high of 7.1% to 6.95% when those stories hit. We’re skeptical that this bump in mortgage applications is little more than a coincidence. But taking what the analysts say at face value, if this is true, holy crap. If just over a tenth of a percentage point gets that many buyers off of the sidelines, things do not bode well for a housing market where supply is already constrained. And, if Trump’s tariffs actually happen, let’s just say they will do ZERO favors for homebuilders. [-facebook-share]( [-twitter-share]( [-linkedin-share]( [-email-share](mailto:?body= https%3A%2F%2Finvestingchannel.com%2F%3Fp%3D642772?utm_medium=ic-nl&utm_source=124590 ) Brought to you by [Weiss Ratings]( [He recommended Nvidia at 80 cents. Here's his first pick for 2025.]( [ Weiss Ratings - He recommended Nvidia at 80 cents. Here]( Michael Robinson is a Silicon Valley Legend … He called Nvidia at 80 cents in 2016. It's since exploded 17,062%. Now, he's uncovered an even bigger story than AI … And, TODAY ONLY, he's talking all about the companies he believes will be the superstars in 2025. [Find out more right away.]( Continued... Lumber prices are already up about 17% year over year. If Trump implements tariffs, expect lumber and, also, steel to get more expensive from US companies who often import these materials from Canada. But, setting tariffs aside, our original thesis holds and is playing out. Lower interest rates bring people off of the sidelines, which will drive prices up. Many of these buyers simply can’t wait much longer. And, in quite a few cases, they’re armed with home equity and ready to spend to get what they want. [FINAL HOURS: Lifetime Access Disappears at Midnight]( The clock is ticking... I wanted to take the time to remind you, just in case you missed my previous message. With how busy the past few days may have been, we wanted to make sure you saw this exclusive Black Friday deal. When you join before tomorrow's deadline, you'll receive:1-2 Monthly Recommendations Sell Alerts Access to 6 Exclusive Investment Reports VIP Support Lifetime Membership (never pay a subscription fee again) The clock is ticking. At midnight tomorrow this offer disappears forever. [Click here to secure your lifetime membership before midnight ]([Ad] The difference between a $750,000 loan at 7.1% and 6.95% is about $75 a month. If we see rates fall more, imagine how many more buyers will enter the market. It will be wild, given that this little tick down increased applications by 12%. If rates don’t fall — and this is a potential reality in a Trump economy — we’re stuck with the original problem that’s likely to go away anytime soon. Prohibitive monthly payments. That $750,000 loan at 6.95% results in a $5,525 monthly payment. To be able to afford that payment, you must earn about $221,000 a year. Sometimes it’s tough to believe that this is the world we’re living in and the largely ignored housing crisis we’re dealing with. As for prices, via Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk blog— - On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. They’re up 3.9% year-over-year, as of September. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index shows an annual increase of 4.3%, as of the end of Q3. We don’t think we have ever seen clearer writing on the wall. The Bottom Line: And nobody is doing a damn thing about it. Kamala Harris’s housing proposals were weak at best, if not outright lame. And Trump’s might as well be non-existent. The idea that tariffs will force companies to manufacture goods in America and life will then be good for everyone is not housing policy. Here’s hoping this is all posturing. But whatever it is, we need real action on housing. Because, without anything resembling affordable housing across much of the nation (particularly in places where the jobs are), the future isn’t bright for the youngest generations of Americans. And some older ones, too. [-facebook-share]( [-twitter-share]( [-linkedin-share]( [-email-share](mailto:?body= https%3A%2F%2Finvestingchannel.com%2F%3Fp%3D642772?utm_medium=ic-nl&utm_source=124590 ) Proprietary Data Insights Top Homebuilder Stock Searches This Month Rank Ticker Name Searches #1 [DHI]( DR Horton 27,205 #2 [PHM]( PulteGroup 22,971 #3 [LEN]( Lennar 20,214 #4 [GRBK]( Green Brick Partners 11,100 #5 [NVR]( NVR Inc 9,351 #ad [Learn how to trade with Benzinga Pro]( News & Insights Freshly Squeezed - [Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk Housing Blog]( - [Navigating Market Volatility: The Alt Advantage]( - [Are Alternative Investment Options Only For ‘Professional’ Investors?]( - [What Are Alternative ETFs?]( [News & Insights-facebook-share]( [News & Insights-twitter-share]( [News & Insights-linkedin-share]( [News & Insights-email-share](mailto:?body= https%3A%2F%2Finvestingchannel.com%2F%3Fp%3D642772?utm_medium=ic-nl&utm_source=124590 ) [We want to hear from you. 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