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--_000_ 4B5HCUE4ONDBRK6N816ULCGUBYM2YZ1E4RGBCIOF6IH4VSGA6I4LOQW _ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable India’s fiscal challenges persist, with a high issuance of government, state, and public sector bonds driving the fiscal deficit to around 7.5%-8% of GDP. Although short-term relief for government bonds may come through open market operations (OMOs), bond spreads are likely to widen in early 2024 due to inflation, fiscal pressures, and strengthening growth, pushing yields higher Random_anm[8,s]. We expect a cyclical recovery in India’s Random_anm[8,s] construction and real estate sectors as the government is anticipated to introduce policies to drive demand. The prolonged downturn in real estate could soon conclude. Commodities, especially crude oil, are set to surge in 2024, driven by US dollar depreciation, global economic recovery, and heightened demand from India and China. Rising crude prices could present inflationary challenges for India, influencing interest rates and currency values. Random_anm[12,s] Financial pressures peaking around 2019 have gradually subsided, with the recovery anticipated to extend. High non-performing loans (NPLs) have constrained credit growth in India, although retail lending has surged over the past five years. Rising unemployment and stagnant wages might pose risks to retail lending, with some major balance sheets facing ongoing stress. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and government intervention may be required to support the economy. The Indian rupee is forecasted to depreciate to 75 per US dollar in 2024, with a projected balance of payments (BoP) surplus of $20-25 billion and a current account deficit (CAD) around 1.75%. However, rising oil prices could challenge these projections. A modest recovery is expected for India in 2024. Random_anm[8,s] The financial system’s pressures should ease, spurring loan growth, a rebound in real estate, higher bond yields, and narrowing credit spreads. Although the rupee may weaken further, policy stability should improve, and economic growth may gain momentum. However, a sustained investment cycle may remain elusive. Random_anm[12,s] Desk: +91 Random_nm[10] | Mobile: +91 Random_nm[10] | Random_anm[12,s] Email: arpit.Ohget@Bounce_dnO mailto Ohget@Bounce_dnO | Website - Random_anm[12,s] [Asira-Birla_Investing_Email-Signature_Sun-Life-AMC-Ltd] Geopolitical risks remain a critical concern for our outlook. With the US-China Phase One trade agreement in place, tensions between these two economies may ease. Although this may not fully end conflicts, a temporary truce appears likely. Yet, recent US-Iran tensions pose a significant emerging risk with potential impacts on both global and Indian economies. Another key uncertainty for financial markets is the forthcoming US presidential elections. The Eurozone economy, led by Germany, encountered challenges over the past year. However, with China's economic revival, reduced trade war concerns, and an automotive sector rebound, Europe’s economic outlook may brighten. Following the resolution of Brexit uncertainties, the UK could also experience a positive shift. Among OECD countries, Japan may continue facing hurdles in 2024, while the US economy is forecasted to expand near its 2% growth potential. The Federal Reserve has already reduced rates by 75 basis points and is expected to hold steady unless inflation significantly rises. Low US unemployment and steady wage growth might increase inflationary pressures, though inflation concerns have been largely overstated over the past decade. Our outlook on US Treasury yields and global bond rates remains cautious. With economic momentum gaining and commodity prices rising, global inflation is anticipated to trend upward. Energy prices, previously damping inflation, are expected to contribute more as last year’s oil price slump fades. Random_anm[8,s] In the US, tariff-driven price pressures could also subside with favorable trade deals. Meanwhile, in emerging markets (EMs), rising food prices may add to inflation in the coming year. --_000_ 4B5HCUE4ONDBRK6N816ULCGUBYM2YZ1E4RGBCIOF6IH4VSGA6I4LOQW _ Content-Transfer-Encoding: UTF-8 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 2024.10.29-14.07.55 Fast and Easy Medicare Supplement Eligibility To be removed from our mailing list please [Click here](. PECL6WBB6J2.67.23.251.157Y3DYMP9JNA1NH7L!.20oeI.67.23.251.157EHGHZ1YPP8CK3B6S!. 8SI4G3N86MN.67.23.251.1578K622TZALDWAKKZ!.9Hu30.67.23.251.157GR2D2JX2JBIHP15C!. DX722RPMZV6.67.23.251.1576YMZ5L6RHA947BM!.ks2I2.67.23.251.157PBBBPY7ROP68YTGU!. 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Please delete all copies from your system immediately. The opinions expressed in this email may not reflect the official policies of Asira Birla Group. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this email or contacting us by phone. Kindly ensure the permanent deletion of all copies of this email and any attachments from your system. The views or opinions expressed in this communication do not necessarily represent the official policy or stance of Asira Birla Group. The content of this email is exclusively intended for the individual(s) or entity to whom it is addressed. It may contain confidential, proprietary, or legally privileged information. Any unauthorized access, review, retransmission, dissemination, or use of this information by anyone other than the intended recipient is strictly forbidden and may constitute a violation of law. --_000_ 4B5HCUE4ONDBRK6N816ULCGUBYM2YZ1E4RGBCIOF6IH4VSGA6I4LOQW _--