This Signal Just Scared Me

[] It is a very good time to think about speculating about the downside in this market. We had a negative signal hit on Friday, which might tell us it’s time to bet against this rally. [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] [Godesburg's Haven Investment Letter]( [] [Godesburg's Haven Investment Letter]( [] This Signal Just Scared Me [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Next week, the Federal Reserve will offer its latest increase to the Fed funds rate. Markets overwhelmingly anticipate that the Fed will increase its rate by 75 basis points. However, there has been a trend of more people betting on a 50-point hike instead of a higher figure. I’d wager a few things are spurring optimism around the Fed. First, the odds have increased that the GOP will take the House of Representatives - and more people now believe that the Republicans can get to 51 in the Senate. Should that happen, we would anticipate fewer spending sprees over the next two years. That will help combat inflation on the fiscal spending side. Then, there’s the GDP report from yesterday. Most people are ignoring the details of the GDP report and only focusing on the headline number: A 2.6% increase in the third quarter. The simple fact that we are not in a recession is enough to soothe investor concerns. ow, we can get back to worrying about inflation (even though there is a low probability that we’ll have another significant pop in growth. The odds of a recession next year are over 90%). But as everyone else celebrated today’s big pop… I had a big red signal flash. And I want to show it to you. Is Momentum About to Go Red? Today, we had a very subtle pop in the ProShares Short 20+ Yr Treasury (TBF). Wait… the what? This is an inverse ETF that moves higher when bonds with a 20-year or higher duration drop. Most people didn’t notice, but bond yields and the dollar ticked higher while the markets rallied. Every time that this thing starts to break out… the market tanks. And in this environment where markets are moving higher - with very little fundamentals behind the move - this fund can signal that we’re on the verge of a momentum switch. January 13… February 24… April 6… June 8… August 15… October 1… These breakouts on the TBF coincided with big momentum shifts and downturns in the market. I will not be lulled into a false sense of security. Today’s uptick is a possible clue that we’re ready for another push higher. And if the Fed does move to 75 points on Wednesday and signals that the inflation fight is far from over - look for profit takers. We’ve moved from 3,500 on the S&P 500 to 3,900 in less than a few weeks. And that’s without any significant levels of insider buying among executives across the market. I’ll remind you… the insiders will call the bottom in this market. Not us. For now, I’m very cautious about this bear market rally. I think it’s fair to expect another leg down in the coming weeks. Ignore whatever nonsense the mainstream press sells. We remain long - but I’ve recommended that people start to trade around the TBF $24.00 level. The $24 call for December 16, 2022, can be had for $0.70. You could buy that and turn the trade into a lower-risk spread by selling the $26.00 call for $0.25. The Perfect Stocks All Make Stuff That We Need I’m excited to announce that there will be some amazing changes to your Haven Investment Letter experience soon. More importantly, we’ll dig into our F&Z Score stocks for November on Monday. In addition, I’ll talk about one growth and income stock that I’m hyper-bullish on for next month - regardless of the broad market instability. Remember - we’re focused on companies with very solid balance sheets and improving financial conditions. Those can be rare in this environment. Many companies are under financial duress as they face increasing pressure from rising interest rates. Our focus is on companies that produce oil, food, and other must-have products. Demand will remain high… capital deployment will remain robust… and the upside will remain high. So look for that list on Monday. I hope you all have a wonderful weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} [] Market momentum is Green. Shares of Apple (AAPL) squeezed more than 7.6% after the company reported mildly respectable earnings. With the whole world betting against Apple, we saw a significant squeeze across the markets on Friday. While I remain bullish, keep in mind that a key signal - TBF - just flashed red, and I’m a bit worried about another selloff very soon. [] [] [] This Signal Just Scared Me [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Next week, the Federal Reserve will offer its latest increase to the Fed funds rate. Markets overwhelmingly anticipate that the Fed will increase its rate by 75 basis points. However, there has been a trend of more people betting on a 50-point hike instead of a higher figure. I’d wager a few things are spurring optimism around the Fed. First, the odds have increased that the GOP will take the House of Representatives - and more people now believe that the Republicans can get to 51 in the Senate. Should that happen, we would anticipate fewer spending sprees over the next two years. That will help combat inflation on the fiscal spending side. Then, there’s the GDP report from yesterday. Most people are ignoring the details of the GDP report and only focusing on the headline number: A 2.6% increase in the third quarter. The simple fact that we are not in a recession is enough to soothe investor concerns. ow, we can get back to worrying about inflation (even though there is a low probability that we’ll have another significant pop in growth. The odds of a recession next year are over 90%). But as everyone else celebrated today’s big pop… I had a big red signal flash. And I want to show it to you. Is Momentum About to Go Red? Today, we had a very subtle pop in the ProShares Short 20+ Yr Treasury (TBF). Wait… the what? This is an inverse ETF that moves higher when bonds with a 20-year or higher duration drop. Most people didn’t notice, but bond yields and the dollar ticked higher while the markets rallied. Every time that this thing starts to break out… the market tanks. And in this environment where markets are moving higher - with very little fundamentals behind the move - this fund can signal that we’re on the verge of a momentum switch. January 13… February 24… April 6… June 8… August 15… October 1… These breakouts on the TBF coincided with big momentum shifts and downturns in the market. I will not be lulled into a false sense of security. Today’s uptick is a possible clue that we’re ready for another push higher. And if the Fed does move to 75 points on Wednesday and signals that the inflation fight is far from over - look for profit takers. We’ve moved from 3,500 on the S&P 500 to 3,900 in less than a few weeks. And that’s without any significant levels of insider buying among executives across the market. I’ll remind you… the insiders will call the bottom in this market. Not us. For now, I’m very cautious about this bear market rally. I think it’s fair to expect another leg down in the coming weeks. Ignore whatever nonsense the mainstream press sells. We remain long - but I’ve recommended that people start to trade around the TBF $24.00 level. The $24 call for December 16, 2022, can be had for $0.70. You could buy that and turn the trade into a lower-risk spread by selling the $26.00 call for $0.25. The Perfect Stocks All Make Stuff That We Need I’m excited to announce that there will be some amazing changes to your Haven Investment Letter experience soon. More importantly, we’ll dig into our F&Z Score stocks for November on Monday. In addition, I’ll talk about one growth and income stock that I’m hyper-bullish on for next month - regardless of the broad market instability. Remember - we’re focused on companies with very solid balance sheets and improving financial conditions. Those can be rare in this environment. Many companies are under financial duress as they face increasing pressure from rising interest rates. Our focus is on companies that produce oil, food, and other must-have products. Demand will remain high… capital deployment will remain robust… and the upside will remain high. So look for that list on Monday. I hope you all have a wonderful weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} [] Market momentum is Green. Shares of Apple (AAPL) squeezed more than 7.6% after the company reported mildly respectable earnings. With the whole world betting against Apple, we saw a significant squeeze across the markets on Friday. While I remain bullish, keep in mind that a key signal - TBF - just flashed red, and I’m a bit worried about another selloff very soon. [] [] [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information please visit [our disclaimer page here](. [] Sent to: {EMAIL} [UNSUBSCRIBE]( [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information please visit [our disclaimer page here](. 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