Stimulus < QT (Round Two)

[] The Fed just took a missile to the U.S. stock market by telling investors that inflation remains the priority over the labor market. The Dow fell by 1,000 points on Friday. [View in browser]( . The Fed just took a missile to the U.S. stock market by telling investors that inflation remains the priority over the labor market. The Dow fell by 1,000 points on Friday. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Too Busy to Trade? This Might Be the Solution. On top of being a brilliant trader, Jeffry Turnmire is still a professional engineer. So he needed a strategy that fit his schedule. Then, he discovered an insane glitch in the market. Now, he trades for an hour at the opening bell, and clocks out for the rest of the day! [Watch this interview to learn all about Jeffry's discovery]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Too Busy to Trade? This Might Be the Solution. On top of being a brilliant trader, Jeffry Turnmire is still a professional engineer. So he needed a strategy that fit his schedule. Then, he discovered an insane glitch in the market. Now, he trades for an hour at the opening bell, and clocks out for the rest of the day! [Watch this interview to learn all about Jeffry's discovery]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Stimulus [Garrett Pic] Momentum is... Orange... What’s the color between yellow and red? The S&P 500’s entire chart flipped today, and there looks to be more selling ahead. I’m sitting in cash and building my list for potential shorts come Monday or Tuesday. While some short covering may come on Monday, the trend is looking more bearish. Next week will make or break the market in 2022. Dear Investor, I have been screaming against this tape all week long. Some people kept telling me that the dump wasn’t coming. There was buying and more buying from Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday’s rally felt like the markets taking every last penny that it could before the dump. It kept me up for a little while on Thursday night. I moved to cash earlier this week. I took aim at shorting this market, accordingly, on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and Apple… And then, it took a long-awaited dive. It is very hard to be “short” in this market. Add $1 trillion in global stimulus like we saw from China, and the markets will climb irrationally. But today’s 1,000 drop on the Dow Jones appears to be the start of something I’ve predicted for a month. A return to sobriety in these markets. If Friday was Round Two of stimulus versus the Fed… Jerome Powell just landed a punch to the head of the Bulls… and won the round. Higher for Longer For weeks, the markets have laughed in the face of higher interest rate hikes and sustained levels of Quantitative Tightening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company have said they must do more to tackle inflation. Look at the Personal Consumption Index (PCI) inflation level today. Some people cheered because it fell in line with expectations. A sober person who wasn’t trying to sell their book would admit that it was STILL AT A 40-YEAR HIGH. Powell predicted pain for the market and economy. He explained that the Fed has to get inflation under control because it impacts the working class and poor Americans. How quickly Wall Street forgets this very simple fact. Inflation requires a decisive blow. And it appears that the markets actually believe him after the fourth reminder that it will take considerable time to cool inflation. Today’s selloff was the first step in closing that equity gap. As I wrote yesterday: According to Bridgewater Associates CIO Greg Jensen, we are currently 25% higher than the traditional relationship between asset prices and cash flows. There would need to either be significant economic growth SOON to narrow that gap… Or a sharp decline in equity prices. I think the latter is the pathway. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September and could push toward 4% by February 2023. [Rate Probabilities]( According to CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate hikes by Fed meeting, the odds of a move to 4% on the Fed funds rate by that month is above 11%. What’s Next I’m anticipating a full switch in momentum in the next two to three days, and with it - a sharp decline that rivals the previous downturns we’ve seen in January, February, April, and June. Now is the time to have a plan. I always start with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as my baseline trade. The IWM always gives me a place to start because I like to focus on its resistance points and how far it has traveled south in periods of negative momentum. This chart from NimbusCapital (via TradingView) shows that once the IWM falls under resistance at the $190 level, the clear downside is at about $170. In fact, every time that we’ve seen a clear negative signal on the broad market… [iShares Russell 2000]( [(Click to view larger)]( It’s hit at least $170. And here we go, right? The September 12, 2022 $176 put closed Friday at under $1.00. That contract would expire the week of Quad Witching and the release of the August PPI and CPI report. If momentum goes negative, this would be an ideal target, with a possible upside of 500% if the IWM hits $170 on or before that date. It’s aggressive, but so is selling in negative environments. I’ll be back EARLY on Monday with ideas for trading in this environment. To get a clearer indication of where tech stocks are heading next week, keep a close eye on Bitcoin. If it drops under the $20,000 level, we might be talking about another leg down for the market - and additional panic selling. Remember, funds can’t sell everything on the same day… there has to be a structured selloff due to volume. We’ll be back on Monday with more insight. Enjoy your weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Stimulus [Garrett Pic] Momentum is... Orange... What’s the color between yellow and red? The S&P 500’s entire chart flipped today, and there looks to be more selling ahead. I’m sitting in cash and building my list for potential shorts come Monday or Tuesday. While some short covering may come on Monday, the trend is looking more bearish. Next week will make or break the market in 2022. Dear Investor, I have been screaming against this tape all week long. Some people kept telling me that the dump wasn’t coming. There was buying and more buying from Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday’s rally felt like the markets taking every last penny that it could before the dump. It kept me up for a little while on Thursday night. I moved to cash earlier this week. I took aim at shorting this market, accordingly, on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and Apple… And then, it took a long-awaited dive. It is very hard to be “short” in this market. Add $1 trillion in global stimulus like we saw from China, and the markets will climb irrationally. But today’s 1,000 drop on the Dow Jones appears to be the start of something I’ve predicted for a month. A return to sobriety in these markets. If Friday was Round Two of stimulus versus the Fed… Jerome Powell just landed a punch to the head of the Bulls… and won the round. Higher for Longer For weeks, the markets have laughed in the face of higher interest rate hikes and sustained levels of Quantitative Tightening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company have said they must do more to tackle inflation. Look at the Personal Consumption Index (PCI) inflation level today. Some people cheered because it fell in line with expectations. A sober person who wasn’t trying to sell their book would admit that it was STILL AT A 40-YEAR HIGH. Powell predicted pain for the market and economy. He explained that the Fed has to get inflation under control because it impacts the working class and poor Americans. How quickly Wall Street forgets this very simple fact. Inflation requires a decisive blow. And it appears that the markets actually believe him after the fourth reminder that it will take considerable time to cool inflation. Today’s selloff was the first step in closing that equity gap. As I wrote yesterday: According to Bridgewater Associates CIO Greg Jensen, we are currently 25% higher than the traditional relationship between asset prices and cash flows. There would need to either be significant economic growth SOON to narrow that gap… Or a sharp decline in equity prices. I think the latter is the pathway. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September and could push toward 4% by February 2023. [Rate Probabilities]( According to CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate hikes by Fed meeting, the odds of a move to 4% on the Fed funds rate by that month is above 11%. What’s Next I’m anticipating a full switch in momentum in the next two to three days, and with it - a sharp decline that rivals the previous downturns we’ve seen in January, February, April, and June. Now is the time to have a plan. I always start with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as my baseline trade. The IWM always gives me a place to start because I like to focus on its resistance points and how far it has traveled south in periods of negative momentum. This chart from NimbusCapital (via TradingView) shows that once the IWM falls under resistance at the $190 level, the clear downside is at about $170. In fact, every time that we’ve seen a clear negative signal on the broad market… [iShares Russell 2000]( [(Click to view larger)]( It’s hit at least $170. And here we go, right? The September 12, 2022 $176 put closed Friday at under $1.00. That contract would expire the week of Quad Witching and the release of the August PPI and CPI report. If momentum goes negative, this would be an ideal target, with a possible upside of 500% if the IWM hits $170 on or before that date. It’s aggressive, but so is selling in negative environments. I’ll be back EARLY on Monday with ideas for trading in this environment. To get a clearer indication of where tech stocks are heading next week, keep a close eye on Bitcoin. If it drops under the $20,000 level, we might be talking about another leg down for the market - and additional panic selling. Remember, funds can’t sell everything on the same day… there has to be a structured selloff due to volume. We’ll be back on Monday with more insight. Enjoy your weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] California's Greatest AAPL Creation Isn't in Silicon Valley... [California coastline]( [Meet the Tech Wiz Behind the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] California's Greatest AAPL Creation Isn't in Silicon Valley... [California coastline]( [Meet the Tech Wiz Behind the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible? There are thousands of stocks moving in the market every single day… But few draw the level of focus, attention, and excitement as Apple, Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is the Biggest, Richest, and One of the Most Widely Traded Stocks in the World Apple was the first company to hit a market cap of $1 trillion or more, and they now have a market cap of over $2.6 trillion. With an average daily volume of almost 90 million, it is also one of the most widely-traded companies in the world. Even Warren Buffett himself owns more a higher stake in AAPL than in any other company. All This Interest in AAPL Creates One Major Problem With so much interest in such a popular, widely discussed stock, there’s a clear problem. Is it really possible for traders to reach in and grab meaningful trade movement from AAPL shares? Can traders really hope to still trade this crown jewel of tech stocks? Thanks to a Reclusive California Tech Wiz, the Path for Trading AAPL is Clear Thanks to the work of a rogue group of former Wall Street traders, led by a brilliant California tech wiz, they can! Micah Lamar, the brain behind one of the most powerful trade-testing softwares on the planet, has uncovered what he calls “The Perfect AAPL Trade.” [>> See this remarkable system in action here <<]( With a groundbreaking combination of indicators, Micah has perfected a system that now carries an almost-70% win rate… And a reward-to-risk ratio of 3-to-1… And he recently shared that system with the public for the very first time. [Click here right away to learn everything about the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible? There are thousands of stocks moving in the market every single day… But few draw the level of focus, attention, and excitement as Apple, Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is the Biggest, Richest, and One of the Most Widely Traded Stocks in the World Apple was the first company to hit a market cap of $1 trillion or more, and they now have a market cap of over $2.6 trillion. With an average daily volume of almost 90 million, it is also one of the most widely-traded companies in the world. Even Warren Buffett himself owns more a higher stake in AAPL than in any other company. All This Interest in AAPL Creates One Major Problem With so much interest in such a popular, widely discussed stock, there’s a clear problem. Is it really possible for traders to reach in and grab meaningful trade movement from AAPL shares? Can traders really hope to still trade this crown jewel of tech stocks? Thanks to a Reclusive California Tech Wiz, the Path for Trading AAPL is Clear Thanks to the work of a rogue group of former Wall Street traders, led by a brilliant California tech wiz, they can! Micah Lamar, the brain behind one of the most powerful trade-testing softwares on the planet, has uncovered what he calls “The Perfect AAPL Trade.” [>> See this remarkable system in action here <<]( With a groundbreaking combination of indicators, Micah has perfected a system that now carries an almost-70% win rate… And a reward-to-risk ratio of 3-to-1… And he recently shared that system with the public for the very first time. [Click here right away to learn everything about the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [Stimulus](#i572731) - [Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible?](#156383) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [Stimulus](#i572731) - [Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible?](#156383) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States