[] The markets might be facing a financial crisis. Itâs just a situation that the media likely doesnât want to admit, and too many people are ignorant to believe when itâs starting. Also, how should investors in lithium stocks react to the new âpink tideâ in Latin America?
[View in browser]( . The markets might be facing a financial crisis. Itâs just a situation that the media likely doesnât want to admit, and too many people are ignorant to believe when itâs starting. Also, how should investors in lithium stocks react to the new âpink tideâ in Latin America?
[View in browser]( . . []
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[] Say it with me. We're on the verge of a financial... [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, The words “financial crisis” don’t appear too often in the media anymore. That term doesn’t really appear well in a situation where we’ve witnessed a MAJOR selloff. But with market momentum going red on Tuesday, what appears to be margin selling across a variety of sectors, and significant pressure on FAANG stocks, I’ll be the guy who states the obvious. People need to start acting like we’re facing a crisis... Wikipedia writes: “A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value.” I cite Wikipedia because that’s what the “truthiness” agrees to be the perception. It’s effectively a crowd-sourced definition. We can all agree that when a bunch of assets lose a large amount of their value - then we’re in some sort of crisis. Well, let’s check the tape right now. Assets Losing Value Well, inflation is running “officially” at 7.5%, and it’s likely higher. Money market funds are seeing a big exodus of cash because the dollar is losing its purchasing power. Meanwhile, tech stocks are collapsing, and the NASDAQ 100 is off 17.9% since November (just four months ago). It can easily lose a few more percentage points and get us into Bear territory. I’ve been scratching my head wondering why people aren’t more freaked out about the fact that Cathie Wood’s “ARK Invest” ETF is off almost 50% since November. Then I realized that on the ETF’s site, the YTD figure is actually last year’s performance on the ETF’s site, and there’s no reference to the fact anywhere that it’s been off 34.6% since January 1. The fact that we entered a New Year is almost psychologically removing a significant part of our downturn from the equation when we think about the market. We’re only focused on 2022 - and NOT on the cumulative selloff since November. I don’t want to be this guy. But I’m extremely worried. The good news is that I’m not biting my nails. I’m not freaking out. I’m not staying up all night wondering what to do. I’m focused on my momentum readings in the market. Momentum is red. The trigger went Red on Friday. Selling pressure in the S&P 500 exceeds buying pressure. The rest of the 8,500 stocks in the market remain under SIGNIFICANT pressure. About 75% of stocks are under their 50-day and 200-day moving average. Speculative capital has been on the sideline. The financial media has finally caught up and they’re saying that the bears are in control. But they’re REALLY late. I’ve been talking about this pressure since November. Here we are four months later… and they’re still talking “Buying the Dips.” The Market is Still Overvalued Remember, the total market capitalization of stocks trading at the absurd multiple of 10 times sales is still VERY high. Inflation might help pull that number lower, but pronounced selling can and will also contribute to some decline. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is still well above its historical mean. [S&P 500]
Source: CurrentMarketValuation We have experienced a repeat of part of the Dot-Com bubble. Cheap money made it possible for us to scream YOLO and buy stocks trading at 40 times revenue like Docusign (DOCU) and Fastly (FSLY) - even if they didn’t have profits. And anyone who said “HEY - DON’T DO THAT, WE’VE SEEN THIS PLAY OUT BEFORE” - was called a curmudgeon, a Boomer, or something far worse. The markets will always find their way back to valuation sanity - no matter how long it takes. And in an environment like this, I have taken the academic pill of sobriety - fired up the momentum measurements - and turned to the boring stocks that have strong dividends (to overtake inflation). If I can beat inflation this year - and turn out a return north of 8% while the rest of the market experiences a seizure, I’ll be VERY happy. Quad Witching Approaches Listen, you don’t have to heed my warning. You can ignore me, and think that innovation is cheap and that a stupid, unprofitable company like Roblox (RBLX) is cheap because of the Metaverse. But until I see executives buying up the stock with their own money, I’m not touching half this crap with a P/S over 10. (RBLX is at 12.4x). All you need to do is check the tape. The most volatile periods of the last year have largely coincided with options expiration dates for each month (Third Friday). The last two quad witching days - the dates when we see simultaneous expiration of four asset classes - stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures - have been horrible triggers for selloffs. Look back at the third week of September and December. [SPY] Can you see the pain? March 18 is the next Quad Witching Day - which comes two days after the Fed is scheduled to raise interest rates. I can’t think of too many positive catalysts right now. There’s no more cheap money. The faucet is off. The signal is red for the Fed. They’re trying to clean up the mess, even as the Wall Street Journal writes a glowing recount of their efforts to stop a collapse in March 2020. A reminder: the markets were extremely overvalued before the Covid crisis hit. What I can say is that I’m looking at the threat of a recession from higher rates, seeing layoffs start in the mortgage industry, watching boards stupidly turn down takeover offers, seeing Wall Street celebrate record bonuses, and seeing way too many stocks trading at multiples that didn’t make sense in 2000 and don’t make sense now. You can throw me out of your party if you want. You can tell me that I’m being too bearish. But I’ve seen this story too many times. Cash is your friend, and so too are the VERY cheap stocks trading at multiples that would suggest a further correction for the broader market. March 18 will be here soon, and even if we see a relief rally post Russia, we’re still not likely to see any significant abatement in inflation or supply chain struggles for some time. Go for a walk. Enjoy the sunshine. We’ll still be able to make money. It just might require us to think much differently than what we saw in 2020 and 2021. My best, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME}
Chief Analyst, American Markets []
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[] Say it with me. We're on the verge of a financial... [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, The words “financial crisis” don’t appear too often in the media anymore. That term doesn’t really appear well in a situation where we’ve witnessed a MAJOR selloff. But with market momentum going red on Tuesday, what appears to be margin selling across a variety of sectors, and significant pressure on FAANG stocks, I’ll be the guy who states the obvious. People need to start acting like we’re facing a crisis... Wikipedia writes: “A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value.” I cite Wikipedia because that’s what the “truthiness” agrees to be the perception. It’s effectively a crowd-sourced definition. We can all agree that when a bunch of assets lose a large amount of their value - then we’re in some sort of crisis. Well, let’s check the tape right now. Assets Losing Value Well, inflation is running “officially” at 7.5%, and it’s likely higher. Money market funds are seeing a big exodus of cash because the dollar is losing its purchasing power. Meanwhile, tech stocks are collapsing, and the NASDAQ 100 is off 17.9% since November (just four months ago). It can easily lose a few more percentage points and get us into Bear territory. I’ve been scratching my head wondering why people aren’t more freaked out about the fact that Cathie Wood’s “ARK Invest” ETF is off almost 50% since November. Then I realized that on the ETF’s site, the YTD figure is actually last year’s performance on the ETF’s site, and there’s no reference to the fact anywhere that it’s been off 34.6% since January 1. The fact that we entered a New Year is almost psychologically removing a significant part of our downturn from the equation when we think about the market. We’re only focused on 2022 - and NOT on the cumulative selloff since November. I don’t want to be this guy. But I’m extremely worried. The good news is that I’m not biting my nails. I’m not freaking out. I’m not staying up all night wondering what to do. I’m focused on my momentum readings in the market. Momentum is red. The trigger went Red on Friday. Selling pressure in the S&P 500 exceeds buying pressure. The rest of the 8,500 stocks in the market remain under SIGNIFICANT pressure. About 75% of stocks are under their 50-day and 200-day moving average. Speculative capital has been on the sideline. The financial media has finally caught up and they’re saying that the bears are in control. But they’re REALLY late. I’ve been talking about this pressure since November. Here we are four months later… and they’re still talking “Buying the Dips.” The Market is Still Overvalued Remember, the total market capitalization of stocks trading at the absurd multiple of 10 times sales is still VERY high. Inflation might help pull that number lower, but pronounced selling can and will also contribute to some decline. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is still well above its historical mean. [S&P 500]
Source: CurrentMarketValuation We have experienced a repeat of part of the Dot-Com bubble. Cheap money made it possible for us to scream YOLO and buy stocks trading at 40 times revenue like Docusign (DOCU) and Fastly (FSLY) - even if they didn’t have profits. And anyone who said “HEY - DON’T DO THAT, WE’VE SEEN THIS PLAY OUT BEFORE” - was called a curmudgeon, a Boomer, or something far worse. The markets will always find their way back to valuation sanity - no matter how long it takes. And in an environment like this, I have taken the academic pill of sobriety - fired up the momentum measurements - and turned to the boring stocks that have strong dividends (to overtake inflation). If I can beat inflation this year - and turn out a return north of 8% while the rest of the market experiences a seizure, I’ll be VERY happy. Quad Witching Approaches Listen, you don’t have to heed my warning. You can ignore me, and think that innovation is cheap and that a stupid, unprofitable company like Roblox (RBLX) is cheap because of the Metaverse. But until I see executives buying up the stock with their own money, I’m not touching half this crap with a P/S over 10. (RBLX is at 12.4x). All you need to do is check the tape. The most volatile periods of the last year have largely coincided with options expiration dates for each month (Third Friday). The last two quad witching days - the dates when we see simultaneous expiration of four asset classes - stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures - have been horrible triggers for selloffs. Look back at the third week of September and December. [SPY] Can you see the pain? March 18 is the next Quad Witching Day - which comes two days after the Fed is scheduled to raise interest rates. I can’t think of too many positive catalysts right now. There’s no more cheap money. The faucet is off. The signal is red for the Fed. They’re trying to clean up the mess, even as the Wall Street Journal writes a glowing recount of their efforts to stop a collapse in March 2020. A reminder: the markets were extremely overvalued before the Covid crisis hit. What I can say is that I’m looking at the threat of a recession from higher rates, seeing layoffs start in the mortgage industry, watching boards stupidly turn down takeover offers, seeing Wall Street celebrate record bonuses, and seeing way too many stocks trading at multiples that didn’t make sense in 2000 and don’t make sense now. You can throw me out of your party if you want. You can tell me that I’m being too bearish. But I’ve seen this story too many times. Cash is your friend, and so too are the VERY cheap stocks trading at multiples that would suggest a further correction for the broader market. March 18 will be here soon, and even if we see a relief rally post Russia, we’re still not likely to see any significant abatement in inflation or supply chain struggles for some time. Go for a walk. Enjoy the sunshine. We’ll still be able to make money. It just might require us to think much differently than what we saw in 2020 and 2021. My best, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME}
Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] California's Greatest AAPL Creation Isn't in Silicon Valley... [California coastline]( [Meet the Tech Wiz Behind the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] California's Greatest AAPL Creation Isn't in Silicon Valley... [California coastline]( [Meet the Tech Wiz Behind the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] []
[] Why Latin America is a Big Geopolitical Risk [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, If you want to invest in raw materials, you can hardly avoid lithium. After all, the metal is an important component of rechargeable batteries. So it's no wonder that most experts expect demand for lithium to rise sharply in the coming years. Latin America in particular is the focus here. The world's largest lithium deposits are believed to be located there. The lithium rush in this region of the world is correspondingly huge. Lithium Nationalism in Latin America But now a development is emerging that could become a problem for us investors. More and more Latin American governments want to take lithium extraction into their own hands via state-owned companies - and to outbid private companies or to bleed them financially. This is intended to nationalize the revenues from exploitation and keep them in the country, which should ultimately benefit the local population. Observers are already talking about lithium nationalism. Chile and Bolivia Ask Foreign Companies to Pay Up In Chile, for example, a new government will come to power in March that wants to increase state influence in the strategic battery raw material. This would simply leave less for investors. There’s a similar approach in Bolivia. There, the state-owned company YLB has been fighting for years with the German technology company ACI Systems Alemania over the exploitation of the raw material. Here, too, the government wants to secure the most lucrative concessions possible from foreign partners. Mexico Wants to do Without Private Investors Entirely Mexico, meanwhile, is going even further. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced just a few days ago that the country's undeveloped lithium deposits will not be exploited by private companies at all. In his opinion, private capital is not welcome. Obrador therefore also wants to establish a state-owned lithium company. Lithium Shares: Is the time of Bubbling Profits Over? As you can see, many Latin American governments want to tap the lithium money pit themselves. Foreign companies must therefore either forgo the region's raw material treasures, which would hardly be an option in view of the gigantic deposits, or make substantial concessions to the states. This would mean that large parts of the revenues would then disappear. On the other hand, governments need the expertise of foreign companies - in exploration and production as well as in marketing. But the states simply have more leverage. As an investor, you should definitely keep this development on your radar. In particular, those listed mining companies with a strong exposure to Latin America will have to prepare for profit cuts in the coming years. This, in turn, could lead to corporations scaling back their exposure to these countries. The consequence would be an additional tightening of the global lithium supply situation. In any case, this would argue for further rising prices. Shares With Focus on Australia, Canada and Europe Become More Interesting If you want to minimize your risk with lithium investments, you can focus on companies that are active in Australia or Canada, for example, in view of the increasing nationalism in Latin America. These would benefit twice: from higher prices and from the relatively low restrictions in these markets. One such company is the mining giant Allkem (OROCF). In addition to Australia and Canada, it also operates projects in Argentina. However, the company has not encountered any major problems there so far. Europe is also interesting. The continent also wants to have a say in lithium. Rock Tech Lithium (RCK.V) is one example of a lithium stock with European operations. [OROCF and RCK.V] The latter company wants to mine the battery raw material in Canada, but process it into battery-grade lithium hydroxide in Europe. Enjoy your day, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer
Chief Analyst, European Markets []
--------------------------------------------------------------- []
[] Why Latin America is a Big Geopolitical Risk [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, If you want to invest in raw materials, you can hardly avoid lithium. After all, the metal is an important component of rechargeable batteries. So it's no wonder that most experts expect demand for lithium to rise sharply in the coming years. Latin America in particular is the focus here. The world's largest lithium deposits are believed to be located there. The lithium rush in this region of the world is correspondingly huge. Lithium Nationalism in Latin America But now a development is emerging that could become a problem for us investors. More and more Latin American governments want to take lithium extraction into their own hands via state-owned companies - and to outbid private companies or to bleed them financially. This is intended to nationalize the revenues from exploitation and keep them in the country, which should ultimately benefit the local population. Observers are already talking about lithium nationalism. Chile and Bolivia Ask Foreign Companies to Pay Up In Chile, for example, a new government will come to power in March that wants to increase state influence in the strategic battery raw material. This would simply leave less for investors. There’s a similar approach in Bolivia. There, the state-owned company YLB has been fighting for years with the German technology company ACI Systems Alemania over the exploitation of the raw material. Here, too, the government wants to secure the most lucrative concessions possible from foreign partners. Mexico Wants to do Without Private Investors Entirely Mexico, meanwhile, is going even further. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced just a few days ago that the country's undeveloped lithium deposits will not be exploited by private companies at all. In his opinion, private capital is not welcome. Obrador therefore also wants to establish a state-owned lithium company. Lithium Shares: Is the time of Bubbling Profits Over? As you can see, many Latin American governments want to tap the lithium money pit themselves. Foreign companies must therefore either forgo the region's raw material treasures, which would hardly be an option in view of the gigantic deposits, or make substantial concessions to the states. This would mean that large parts of the revenues would then disappear. On the other hand, governments need the expertise of foreign companies - in exploration and production as well as in marketing. But the states simply have more leverage. As an investor, you should definitely keep this development on your radar. In particular, those listed mining companies with a strong exposure to Latin America will have to prepare for profit cuts in the coming years. This, in turn, could lead to corporations scaling back their exposure to these countries. The consequence would be an additional tightening of the global lithium supply situation. In any case, this would argue for further rising prices. Shares With Focus on Australia, Canada and Europe Become More Interesting If you want to minimize your risk with lithium investments, you can focus on companies that are active in Australia or Canada, for example, in view of the increasing nationalism in Latin America. These would benefit twice: from higher prices and from the relatively low restrictions in these markets. One such company is the mining giant Allkem (OROCF). In addition to Australia and Canada, it also operates projects in Argentina. However, the company has not encountered any major problems there so far. Europe is also interesting. The continent also wants to have a say in lithium. Rock Tech Lithium (RCK.V) is one example of a lithium stock with European operations. [OROCF and RCK.V] The latter company wants to mine the battery raw material in Canada, but process it into battery-grade lithium hydroxide in Europe. Enjoy your day, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer
Chief Analyst, European Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] >> Your Ticket << Exclusive Access to the Perfect Apple Trade Presentation If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... You’ll even be able to gain access to Micah’s proprietary Apple trading tool… Plus, you’ll see the remarkable results Micah’s system has returned, just by placing one trade on iconic Apple Inc., the crown jewel of tech stocks… [Click here to gain immediate access to this presentation]( You’ll be one of the lucky few to see the Perfect Apple Trade system yourself… And meet the brilliant inventor behind this system… [Catch it all here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] >> Your Ticket << Exclusive Access to the Perfect Apple Trade Presentation If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... You’ll even be able to gain access to Micah’s proprietary Apple trading tool… Plus, you’ll see the remarkable results Micah’s system has returned, just by placing one trade on iconic Apple Inc., the crown jewel of tech stocks… [Click here to gain immediate access to this presentation]( You’ll be one of the lucky few to see the Perfect Apple Trade system yourself… And meet the brilliant inventor behind this system… [Catch it all here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [Say it with me. We're on the verge of a financial...](#i572731)
- [Why Latin America is a Big Geopolitical Risk](#i572028)
- [Exclusive Access to the Perfect Apple Trade Presentation](#156379) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [Say it with me. We're on the verge of a financial...](#i572731)
- [Why Latin America is a Big Geopolitical Risk](#i572028)
- [Exclusive Access to the Perfect Apple Trade Presentation](#156379) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER:
COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY â NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFPâs communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: [{EMAIL}](mailto:) [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER:
COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY â NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFPâs communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: [{EMAIL}](mailto:) [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States
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