A Top Energy Pick | Wall Street: Will the Pace of Earnings Growth Remain High?

[] How will Q4 earnings and 2022 earnings shape up against the strong growth of 2021? Also, with oil prices set to rise due to a demand and supply imbalance, investors are turning their attention to a string of strong energy stocks that have unique upside. [View in browser]( . How will Q4 earnings and 2022 earnings shape up against the strong growth of 2021? Also, with oil prices set to rise due to a demand and supply imbalance, investors are turning their attention to a string of strong energy stocks that have unique upside. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] High-Probability Trade Picks EVERY MORNING? Every morning before the market opens, this 20-year market veteran sends out a list of potent stock trades for the day to a small, select group of traders. For now, you can still get on his list to receive these lucrative trade opportunities. But... [YOU NEED TO MOVE FAST! Click here now to sign up.]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] High-Probability Trade Picks EVERY MORNING? Every morning before the market opens, this 20-year market veteran sends out a list of potent stock trades for the day to a small, select group of traders. For now, you can still get on his list to receive these lucrative trade opportunities. But... [YOU NEED TO MOVE FAST! Click here now to sign up.]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] A Top Energy Pick [GarrettPic]Dear Investor, As I keep the motors idled up in the mountains, I’m still paying close attention to the major themes for 2022. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and other major institutions have all increased their outlook for WTI and Brent crude oil in the year ahead. I’ve said that I too expect oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the near future. The demand side of the equation is likely to outstrip the supply side. Naturally, investors want to know how to play that potential rise. I advise that people pump the brakes a little on the speculative side and follow a pretty simple premise this year. I’ve advised that people invest for 2022 in energy as if they anticipate that the average price per barrel will be about $75 per barrel. This will give you a good sense of strong dividends and strong cash flow management in the event we have even a mild pullback in the near term. I think traders should focus on momentum conditions and trade as if oil will swing between $65 per barrel to $85 per barrel. I think that people should speculate based on expectations that oil might go to $100 by taking calculated shots in the options chains. And if you’re looking for a significant, statistical event around geopolitics, consider a more grey swan strategy with $55 per barrel and $125 per barrel as targets. Those would be very low-probability outcomes in the months ahead, but possible if there is another serious variant of COVID or a situation where Iran starts proxy battles around the key supply routes. Start Here If you’re new to investing in energy or you’ve been doing it for years, you’re going to know the name Chevron (CVX). If this seems like too obvious of a stock, then, yes, it is. But investors are smart to target energy companies with strong balance sheets that would benefit solely from rising oil prices. What I mean is that they don't even have to pull crude out of the ground. Because they own large amounts of reserves and have healthy balance sheets, they can just allow prices to rise in crude, and then enjoy a boost to their valuation. Chevron fits the bill. Wall Street is enamored by the stock. Truist Financial just upgraded the stock to a price target of $167 per share based on high oil prices, natural gas stabilization, and strong cash flow. Chevron currently has an F-Score of 7 combined with a Z-Score of 3.19. While it's P/E ratio is a bit high compared to the rest of the industry, it remains low compared to its historical performance. This stock looks ready to continue a controlled climb. You can use in the money calls to take possession of 100 shares for well less than what you would need to buy 100 shares ($12,850). Or you can sell cash-secured puts to pick the entry price of your choice should there be a pullback. Regardless, start here. We'll look for small-cap entrants tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [GarrettSig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] A Top Energy Pick [GarrettPic]Dear Investor, As I keep the motors idled up in the mountains, I’m still paying close attention to the major themes for 2022. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and other major institutions have all increased their outlook for WTI and Brent crude oil in the year ahead. I’ve said that I too expect oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the near future. The demand side of the equation is likely to outstrip the supply side. Naturally, investors want to know how to play that potential rise. I advise that people pump the brakes a little on the speculative side and follow a pretty simple premise this year. I’ve advised that people invest for 2022 in energy as if they anticipate that the average price per barrel will be about $75 per barrel. This will give you a good sense of strong dividends and strong cash flow management in the event we have even a mild pullback in the near term. I think traders should focus on momentum conditions and trade as if oil will swing between $65 per barrel to $85 per barrel. I think that people should speculate based on expectations that oil might go to $100 by taking calculated shots in the options chains. And if you’re looking for a significant, statistical event around geopolitics, consider a more grey swan strategy with $55 per barrel and $125 per barrel as targets. Those would be very low-probability outcomes in the months ahead, but possible if there is another serious variant of COVID or a situation where Iran starts proxy battles around the key supply routes. Start Here If you’re new to investing in energy or you’ve been doing it for years, you’re going to know the name Chevron (CVX). If this seems like too obvious of a stock, then, yes, it is. But investors are smart to target energy companies with strong balance sheets that would benefit solely from rising oil prices. What I mean is that they don't even have to pull crude out of the ground. Because they own large amounts of reserves and have healthy balance sheets, they can just allow prices to rise in crude, and then enjoy a boost to their valuation. Chevron fits the bill. Wall Street is enamored by the stock. Truist Financial just upgraded the stock to a price target of $167 per share based on high oil prices, natural gas stabilization, and strong cash flow. Chevron currently has an F-Score of 7 combined with a Z-Score of 3.19. While it's P/E ratio is a bit high compared to the rest of the industry, it remains low compared to its historical performance. This stock looks ready to continue a controlled climb. You can use in the money calls to take possession of 100 shares for well less than what you would need to buy 100 shares ($12,850). Or you can sell cash-secured puts to pick the entry price of your choice should there be a pullback. Regardless, start here. We'll look for small-cap entrants tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [GarrettSig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Revealed! Legendary Trader Exposes "Secret Daily List" To The Public... [rob booker]( [Click Here Now To Take A Look]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Revealed! Legendary Trader Exposes "Secret Daily List" To The Public... [rob booker]( [Click Here Now To Take A Look]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Wall Street: Will the Pace of Earnings Growth Remain High? [BauerPic]Dear Investor, The quarterly reporting season started on Wall Street a few days ago. In the first three quarters of 2021, analysts' exorbitantly high sales and earnings estimates were largely met. Will this also apply to the significantly weakened forecasts for the final quarter of the year and the coming quarters? Comparisons, Comparisons The year 2018 - from today's perspective a completely normal stock market year - brought excellent growth for listed U.S. public companies: profits of the 500 companies included in the S&P 500 climbed by an average of 23.2%, while sales rose by a respectable 8.7%. The cause of these growth rates was the tax reform of the then U.S. President Trump, for which he was quite scolded by the media at the time. Nevertheless, the S P 500 improved by almost 10% in the following 10 months after the tax reform was passed. [spy] Meanwhile, last year's growth rates apparently exceeded 2018's, although the final results are not yet known. If analysts' estimates for the last quarter of 2021 prove accurate, that would mean that corporate profits increased by an average of 45.2%, and sales increased by an average of 10.5%. Of course, 2020 plays an important role here: Due to the measures taken to combat the pandemic, the S&P 500 companies were just able to maintain their sales (plus/minus 0%), but saw their profits fall by an average of -13.0%. Accordingly, the 2021 figures need to be put into perspective a bit. This is because the quarterly and annual data are compared with the significantly reduced basis of 12 months ago and 2020 respectively. Still, the bottom line is that in fiscal 2020, S&P 500 members posted earnings of just under $1.25 trillion... The Price Question If we look at the evolution of the individual quarters of 2021, we can already see a noticeable cooling - albeit at a high level: +50.1% (Q1), +95.0% (Q2), +41.5% (Q3). For the fourth quarter, analysts forecast average earnings growth of +19.2%. Similarly, the average revenue growth is +10.4% (Q1), +25.3% (Q2), +17.3% (Q3). For the fourth quarter, analysts expect revenue growth of +11.4%. The big prize question now is: can companies confirm these estimates? The first two dozen companies in the S&P 500 that have already released their numbers in the meantime have indeed already outperformed analysts' forecasts for the most part. However, it is of course much too early to draw definitive conclusions. Significantly Lower Earnings in 2022 What you should know, meanwhile: The forecasts for the first nine months of the current year are significantly more moderate. A projected +7.9% increase in average sales in the first quarter is followed by projected figures of +6.2% and +5.6% in the subsequent quarters. That still sounds relatively good - but earnings growth is slowing down more significantly in comparison. For the first quarter, experts estimate earnings growth of +4.3% for S&P 500 members. This is followed by rates of +0.9% in the second and +4.7% in the third quarter. Let's do some quick math: on average, analysts say you can expect revenue growth of +6.6% in the first nine months of 2022, but earnings growth of only +3.3%. For comparison, the average figures for the first three quarters of 2021: sales increased by +17.7%, but profits by +62.2%! Conclusion Even if the sales and earnings development in the fourth quarter of 2021 meets or even exceeds analysts' expectations: in the current year, we will see massively cooled growth in sales and earnings in comparison. As the saying goes, the stock market is where the future is traded. From this point of view, Wall Street's performance in the coming months should not only be severely curbed. Because measured against the forecasts for 2022, the valuations of the S&P 500 companies are far too high and the shares far too expensive. Best regards, [BauerSig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Wall Street: Will the Pace of Earnings Growth Remain High? [BauerPic]Dear Investor, The quarterly reporting season started on Wall Street a few days ago. In the first three quarters of 2021, analysts' exorbitantly high sales and earnings estimates were largely met. Will this also apply to the significantly weakened forecasts for the final quarter of the year and the coming quarters? Comparisons, Comparisons The year 2018 - from today's perspective a completely normal stock market year - brought excellent growth for listed U.S. public companies: profits of the 500 companies included in the S&P 500 climbed by an average of 23.2%, while sales rose by a respectable 8.7%. The cause of these growth rates was the tax reform of the then U.S. President Trump, for which he was quite scolded by the media at the time. Nevertheless, the S P 500 improved by almost 10% in the following 10 months after the tax reform was passed. [spy] Meanwhile, last year's growth rates apparently exceeded 2018's, although the final results are not yet known. If analysts' estimates for the last quarter of 2021 prove accurate, that would mean that corporate profits increased by an average of 45.2%, and sales increased by an average of 10.5%. Of course, 2020 plays an important role here: Due to the measures taken to combat the pandemic, the S&P 500 companies were just able to maintain their sales (plus/minus 0%), but saw their profits fall by an average of -13.0%. Accordingly, the 2021 figures need to be put into perspective a bit. This is because the quarterly and annual data are compared with the significantly reduced basis of 12 months ago and 2020 respectively. Still, the bottom line is that in fiscal 2020, S&P 500 members posted earnings of just under $1.25 trillion... The Price Question If we look at the evolution of the individual quarters of 2021, we can already see a noticeable cooling - albeit at a high level: +50.1% (Q1), +95.0% (Q2), +41.5% (Q3). For the fourth quarter, analysts forecast average earnings growth of +19.2%. Similarly, the average revenue growth is +10.4% (Q1), +25.3% (Q2), +17.3% (Q3). For the fourth quarter, analysts expect revenue growth of +11.4%. The big prize question now is: can companies confirm these estimates? The first two dozen companies in the S&P 500 that have already released their numbers in the meantime have indeed already outperformed analysts' forecasts for the most part. However, it is of course much too early to draw definitive conclusions. Significantly Lower Earnings in 2022 What you should know, meanwhile: The forecasts for the first nine months of the current year are significantly more moderate. A projected +7.9% increase in average sales in the first quarter is followed by projected figures of +6.2% and +5.6% in the subsequent quarters. That still sounds relatively good - but earnings growth is slowing down more significantly in comparison. For the first quarter, experts estimate earnings growth of +4.3% for S&P 500 members. This is followed by rates of +0.9% in the second and +4.7% in the third quarter. Let's do some quick math: on average, analysts say you can expect revenue growth of +6.6% in the first nine months of 2022, but earnings growth of only +3.3%. For comparison, the average figures for the first three quarters of 2021: sales increased by +17.7%, but profits by +62.2%! Conclusion Even if the sales and earnings development in the fourth quarter of 2021 meets or even exceeds analysts' expectations: in the current year, we will see massively cooled growth in sales and earnings in comparison. As the saying goes, the stock market is where the future is traded. From this point of view, Wall Street's performance in the coming months should not only be severely curbed. Because measured against the forecasts for 2022, the valuations of the S&P 500 companies are far too high and the shares far too expensive. Best regards, [BauerSig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] >> Your Ticket << Exclusive Access to the Perfect Apple Trade Presentation If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... 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Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. 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DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: [{EMAIL}](mailto:) [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States