FP This Week: 2023’s most important election?

Is this the end of Turkey’s Erdogan? MAY 9, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Supporters wave Turkish flags at a rally for Turkey’s Republican People's Party chairman and presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Canakkale, Turkey, on April 11. Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images Turkish voters will go to the polls on Sunday in what is likely to be the year’s most consequential election. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, first as prime minister and now as president, but he now finds himself trailing opposition leader [Kemal Kilicdaroglu]( in the polls. Erdogan has shaped modern Turkey. In recent years, however, the country’s economy has slipped, and its people have struggled with runaway inflation. An earthquake in February killed more than 50,000 people, and many Turks [blame Erdogan]( not only for a lackluster emergency response but also for putting in place the conditions that led to shoddy infrastructure. Turkey is among the world’s 20 biggest economies. What happens there matters well beyond its borders. Erdogan’s model of leadership has been copied elsewhere; if he loses, strongmen around the world will sit up and take note. Turkey also plays a crucial role in NATO, the Middle East, and beyond. What will the May 14 elections bring? FP has compiled a [roundup]( of our best reporting and analysis; [six books to read](; an FP Live [interview]( with experts Gonul Tol and FP’s Steven A. Cook; and much more on our [website](.—The Editors   New and Noteworthy - U.S. Foreign Policy Is About to Get Boring. The U.S. presidential election is around the corner—and that means “Scranton Joe” is about to take the international stage. Nobody knows what U.S. foreign policy will be like after November 2024. Given that winning reelection will take precedence over just about everything else, how will the Biden administration handle foreign policy between now and Election Day? Find out [here](. - Are China and Russia Bad for Africa? That’s the Wrong Question. Western journalists must stop pretending that Africa, with the fastest-growing and youngest populations on Earth, has been engaged by the West in any way commensurate with its needs or its importance to the world’s future, FP's Howard W. French [argues](.   FP Live [Inside the U.S.-China Tech War]( May 12, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT Where is the new tech war between the United States and China headed? How are other countries being impacted as a result? In what ways are they reassessing their relationships with the world’s largest economic superpowers? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal in conversation with Dan Wang for a discussion about China’s technological rise and whether U.S. actions can really stop it. [Register here](. [Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive](May 15, 2023 | 12 p.m. EDT Moscow has had months to prepare for a long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive. But as revealed by recently leaked U.S. Defense Department documents, the West has doubts that Kyiv will be able to make serious gains. What will the next phase of the war look like? Is Russia prepared for what Kyiv is planning? Will Crimea play a role? Could battlefield outcomes lead to a negotiated settlement? Join military expert Dara Massicot for a look at the dynamics of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive. [Register here](.   Get the daily magazine for people interested in the world. [Subscribe today](.   Most Popular on FP [U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a news conference at the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi on April 15. ]( [Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough]( Washington and Hanoi have been inching closer, but it’s a complicated dance. By Derek Grossman [Graves of Wagner Group mercenaries killed during Russia's war in Ukraine are covered in flowers at the Beloostrovsky cemetery in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on March 21. ]( [For Russians, It’s the Wild 1990s All Over Again]( Growing graveyards and other parallels signal a threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule. By Alexey Kovalev [Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko examines a high-rise residential building damaged by a Russian drone in Kyiv on May 8.]( [Russian Drone Strike Suggests More to Come]( Moscow’s latest escalation came on the eve of its Victory Day, which marks the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. By Alexandra Sharp [IZMIR, TURKEY - APRIL 30: Supporters listen CHP Party presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu during a campaign rally on April 30, 2023 in Izmir, Turkey. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is holding campaign rallies across Turkey ahead of the countries May 14, 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections. The Kilicdaroglu-led Nation Alliance is representing six opposition parties in next month's election against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year rule. (Photo by Burak Kara/Getty Images)]( [Is this the End of Turkey’s Erdogan?]( How to understand one of the most important elections of 2023. By Ravi Agrawal [A Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. factory is seen from above in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jiangsu province, on Aug. 10, 2022.]( [Taiwan Needs Business Help to Harden Its Economy Against China]( Beijing is looking for ways to harm its neighbor other than invasion. By Elisabeth Braw [Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough]( Washington and Hanoi have been inching closer, but it’s a complicated dance. By Derek Grossman [For Russians, It’s the Wild 1990s All Over Again](Growing graveyards and other parallels signal a threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule. By Alexey Kovalev [Russian Drone Strike Suggests More to Come](Moscow’s latest escalation came on the eve of its Victory Day, which marks the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. By Alexandra Sharp [Is this the End of Turkey’s Erdogan?](How to understand one of the most important elections of 2023. By Ravi Agrawal [Taiwan Needs Business Help to Harden Its Economy Against China](Beijing is looking for ways to harm its neighbor other than invasion. By Elisabeth Braw   It’s Debatable: Is Decoupling Destabilizing the Global Economy? Major speeches from Janet Yellen and Jake Sullivan double down on Biden’s strategy of linking U.S. national security with economic policy. Emma Ashford: I want to talk about political economy today. We’re not economists, but there have been a couple of big speeches in the last few weeks—from [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen]( and [National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan](—that continue with the Biden administration’s approach of linking national security and economic policy. And coincidentally, I think I saw you getting dragged on Twitter for expressing views on a similar subject. What was it you said? That China should be grateful to the United States for its economic growth in recent decades? Matthew Kroenig: I [tweeted]( that China’s economy grew over the decades because the United States wanted it to grow as part of its strategy of incorporating China as a stakeholder in the rules-based system. But now that China is challenging the system, the free world is kicking the ladder down. The tweet certainly got a lot of attention (most of it positive, so I am not sure “dragged” is the right description), but let’s start with Yellen and Sullivan because their pronouncements are much more influential than mine. EA: OK, but the reason I mentioned it is because I think the message of your tweet and the two speeches were surprisingly similar: China should be grateful for U.S. economic leadership, and can continue to grow so long as it doesn’t upset the United States too much. You just put it more bluntly, with far fewer characters than they did. For decades, access to foreign capital, markets, and technology have been key to China’s growth model, and now these things are being taken away. MK: Yes. My 240 characters were motivated by the same set of discussions and were definitely blunt! If I had known the tweet was going to be read by more than half a million people, I would have selected my words more carefully! But, yes, China has benefited greatly from the U.S.-led economic order over the past several decades. Washington knew China was stealing intellectual property, forcing Western companies to transfer technology in order to do business in China, and otherwise trampling on the rules of the global trading system. But it was willing to turn a blind eye because its strategy was to engage China in the hope that it would become a “responsible stakeholder” in a rules-based system. The U.S. economy benefited too, of course, with cheap Chinese imports that helped keep inflation down, for example… [Continue reading on Foreign Policy](.   From Around FP - Currency in the Crossfire: In light of unprecedented challenges to the dollar, how can the United States preserve the influence, efficiency, and national security attributes of the dollar-denominated world order? Foreign Policy and Circle will host a timely discussion on the future of the international monetary system and the U.S. dollar. [Register here](. May 11, 2023 | In-Person and Virtual | Washington, D.C. - How to Achieve Universal Health Coverage: Due to a lack of adequate financial resources, achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of universal health coverage by 2030 is a particular challenge for low- and middle-income countries. Explore how global strategies, country-specific approaches, and public-private partnerships on high-impact interventions could help accelerate action in the new [FP Analytics issue brief](, produced with support from IFPMA. Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. [Subscribe to Foreign Policy](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for the FP This Week newsletter. 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