What the Haniyeh assassination reveals about Israel’s endgame

Plus, the risks of a broader regional war. AUGUST 6, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (R) meets with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (L) at the Pentagon in Washington on June 25. Saul Loeb / AFP U.S. and Israeli leaders simply do not see the war with Hamas the same way, FP columnist Steven A. Cook [writes](, and for proof, look to last week’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. After months of cease-fire negotiations, Cook writes, the attack affirmed that Israel had “no intention of walking away from the fight with Hamas’s leadership intact.” In last week’s [It’s Debatable column]( with Matthew Kroenig, Emma Ashford had an even blunter assessment: “It’s hard to see this as anything other than an attempt to provoke a broader regional war on the part of the Netanyahu government.” Kroenig points the blame for rising instability elsewhere, with Washington and its failure to force Tehran to rein in its proxies. (Their disagreement, Kroenig notes, is a classic example of IR theory debate about the spiral versus deterrence model as the cause of war.) Iran will have been deeply embarrassed by the assassination, [argues]( Macquarie University’s Kylie Moore-Gilbert, who herself spent 804 days in an Iranian prison. “In addition to sending the message that no one in the country is safe, the Hamas leader’s killing in a protected apartment in downtown Tehran telegraphs something more worrying to the Iranian regime: It was almost certainly aided by Iranians inside Iran.” Coupled with an [earlier strike]( on senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, the risk of a broader conflict in the region has become acute. As outlined in an [analysis]( by Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Hezbollah’s missile arsenal and hardened military forces would “pose a major threat to Israel,” far greater than Hamas, and the war could also spread to nearby Syria and Iraq. Amid turmoil and uncertainty, it’s worth dwelling on a joyful moment from last week at the White House. When President Joe Biden presented the largest U.S.-Russia prisoner swap since the Cold War, FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal [writes](, it was a triumph for Biden’s brand of diplomacy, alliance-building, and multilateralism. It was also, Agrawal notes, “the day a teenage girl would see her mother again after more than nine months in prison, convicted for the crime of writing about Russia’s army.” Miriam, the daughter of released Russian American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, turned 13 the day after, so Biden led the reunited families in a chorus of the world’s most popular song.—Amelia Lester, FP deputy editor   New and Noteworthy - New Conflicts: “Russia’s withdrawal from Syria has ushered in a [new chapter of the conflict](,” Arman Mahmoudian writes, as the power vacuum is being quickly filled by Iranian and Hezbollah troops. That poses new challenges for all players—including Israel and the United States. - Turmoil in Venezuela: We “are seeing the rising up of citizens against a government that, according to credible exit polls and opposition tallies of more than 80 percent of the ballots, stole an election from a popular presidential candidate,” Christopher Sabatini writes, looking at [how Venezuelans are reacting]( to questionable electoral outcomes. - The Olympic Stage: The Olympics have sparked discussions about censorship of taboo topics in China, such as potential abuse throughout the Chinese training system. In the [latest China Brief](, FP’s James Palmer explores what the country’s participation in the Olympics means at home and for Chinese foreign policy. Subscribers get exclusive news and analysis on China in their inbox weekly. To access the China Brief newsletter—and even more stories from around the world—[join FP]( for as little as $20 today.   Connecting minds across continents. [Join the global dialogue today.](   [FP Live]( [What Iran Might Do Next]( Aug. 7 | 11 a.m. EDT Fears of all-out conflict in the Middle East have grown since Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran on July 31. Leading Iran scholar Trita Parsi will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal in conversation to discuss new threats of escalation as well as the regional implications. [Register now](. [Decoding Trump’s Foreign-Policy Plans]( On DemandIf Republican nominee Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States, how will he design his foreign policy? Where will his administration shift its attention? Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official during the Trump administration, joined FP Live to discuss. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [How Platon Photographs Power]( On DemandWhether you know it or not, you’ve seen the work of portrait photographer Platon. He’s a British portrait photographer who has taken some of the most famous cover images in history: Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Aung San Suu Kyi, George Clooney, Vladimir Putin, and countless others. Platon sat down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal and gave an insider look at how he connects with his subjects and what his photographs explain that words cannot. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript.   FROM FP EVENTS [Catalysts for Change]( Amid a rapidly evolving world, governments and the private sector need to forge a combined path to progress. Join Foreign Policy, in partnership with the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, for a series of conversations exploring the role of public-private collaboration in advancing U.S. foreign policy. This in-person event is free to register. [SAVE MY SPOT](   Exercise Your Mind What did thousands of young people take to the streets of Nigeria last Thursday to protest? A. High living costs B. A new energy deal with Iran C. Government corruption D. Increased income taxes You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email.   [The Top International Relations Schools of 2024, Ranked]( Álvaro Bernis Illustration for Foreign Policy The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute has long partnered with Foreign Policy to create a reputational ranking of academic programs in international relations. Over the past two decades, our process has remained simple and consistent: We ask IR professionals what they think are the five best places to study for an undergraduate, terminal master’s, and doctoral degree. [SEE THE RANKINGS](   [Get on track with the Olympics]( [Track athlete Zdenek Koubek. ]( [How Olympic Officials First Drew Gender Lines]( Athletes’ complex identities were simplified by reactionary politics. By Sydney Bauer [The Olympics by Numbers]( The cost of hosting and participating in the Games. By Claudia Teti [A poster for the 1924 Summer Olympics in Paris. ]( [For Paris, the Olympics Chaos Is Déjà Vu]( This summer marks the third time France has hosted the Games—and the third time it has hosted major controversy. By David Clay Large [The wind blows a plastic bag past the National Stadium, also known as the Bird's Nest, in Beijing on Jan. 23, 2008. ]( [The Olympics Have a Dirty History—Literally]( But a green sports movement is pushing for change, eager to see if Paris will be different. By Madeleine Orr [How Olympic Officials First Drew Gender Lines]( Athletes’ complex identities were simplified by reactionary politics. By Sydney Bauer [The Olympics by Numbers](The cost of hosting and participating in the Games. By Claudia Teti [For Paris, the Olympics Chaos Is Déjà Vu](This summer marks the third time France has hosted the Games—and the third time it has hosted major controversy. By David Clay Large [The Olympics Have a Dirty History—Literally](But a green sports movement is pushing for change, eager to see if Paris will be different. By Madeleine Orr   From Around FP - Creating a successful podcast: On Sept. 12, Foreign Policy’s award-winning podcast leadership team will share tips and tricks to navigate the increasingly crowded podcast landscape. Learn about the expert strategies that have created more than 20 shows, reached millions of listeners, and won over a dozen podcasting awards over the past five years in a free webinar. [Register now](. - Combating lung cancer: Lung cancer accounts for almost one-fifth of all cancer deaths globally, and 60 percent of them occurred in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022. Explore targeted interventions, investments, and policies that could not only save millions of lives but improve livelihoods and spur economic development, in FP Analytics’ latest [Special Report](, produced with support from Roche Asia Pacific. - Ones and Tooze: Want to attend a live recording of Foreign Policy’s weekly economics podcast, Ones and Tooze? [Reserve your spot]( for a taping on Sept. 17, and check out recent Ones and Tooze episodes in the meantime on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you enjoy your podcasts.   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: A. High living costs. Nationwide demonstrations under the mantra #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria are calling for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to lower prices on food and fuel, FP’s Alexandra Sharp [reports]( in World Brief. 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