A first look at Biden’s foreign-policy legacy

Expert reactions to the big news out of Washington. JULY 23, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     U.S. President Joe Biden wears a tie depicting tiny Democratic Party donkeys as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris introduces him during a campaign rally in Philadelphia on May 29. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images The interesting times continue: On Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection. An incumbent president suspending his campaign is shocking, but not unprecedented—in 1968, Lyndon B. Johnson stepped aside seven months before the election. The outcome of Johnson’s resignation will [not bring much comfort]( to jittery partisans, Princeton’s Julian E. Zelizer noted Sunday, because that year the GOP won the White House. “Although the short-term outlook at the time was bleak for Democrats,” Zelizer wrote, “a new coalition took hold” rooted in the coasts and cosmopolitan areas of the Midwest. In that sense, Zelizer argues, this moment of crisis for the Democratic Party presents opportunities, too. U.S. allies will continue to closely watch developments, as FP’s Robbie Gramer and Amy Mackinnon [reported]( after Biden’s announcement. The results of the election will be “decisive for the unity of the entire Western world and the fate of many countries,” Marko Mihkelson, an Estonian parliamentarian, told FP. As Gramer reported in FP’s [Situation Report]( newsletter, some 20 European ambassadors [showed up]( to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week. Former President Donald Trump’s pick of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate wouldn’t have assuaged their fears that the party’s isolationist faction is winning. During his 2022 campaign for Senate, Vance said he didn’t care what happened to Ukraine “one way or the other.” The potential shift in U.S. foreign policy represented by the Trump-Vance ticket is all the more significant because, as FP’s Michael Hirsh wrote, Biden worked to fulfill the expectations of the postwar consensus in favor of U.S. global leadership. As president, Hirsh wrote, Biden [bridged two eras]( with great agility: the post-World War II era of bold U.S. internationalism, and a new Washington of populist neoprotectionism and anti-interventionism. In 2021, Hirsh argued in a [deep dive]( on “Bidenomics” that if the president was able to follow through on his “new brand of industrial policy and economic nationalism,” he would succeed in casting “onto history’s ash heap the ruling doctrine of the past 40 years: Reaganomics.” The ash heap must be smoldering—Hirsh concluded on Sunday that whereas Biden’s Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, embraced much of the so-called neoliberal consensus, 81-year-old Biden changed the paradigm. But with the Democratic Party yet to settle on a candidate for November’s election, Biden’s political reputation is now bound to his vice president, whom he has already endorsed. “The [fate of his legacy]( now rests with Kamala Harris,” University of Virginia historian Sidney Milkis told Hirsh of Biden, “just as Franklin Roosevelt’s legacy rested with Harry Truman’s success.”—Amelia Lester   New and Noteworthy - Venezuela’s Strongman: “Against all odds, the opposition is gaining momentum ahead of the [July 28 presidential elections](,” Tony Frangie-Mawad writes. But it will likely continue to face significant obstacles ahead of the vote, Frangie-Mawad explains. - Another Syrian Uprising: “The world’s interest in working to [resolve Syria’s debilitating crisis]( has completely evaporated,” Charles Lister writes. And, given ongoing geopolitical hostilities, a regime-linked drug trade, and other factors, “in many ways, the situation in Syria is worse than it’s ever been.” - Europe’s Leadership Vacuum: While the EU and its member states have increased defense spending, Bart M. J. Szewczyk argues that the alliance’s approach to security is at a plateau “[without active leadership](.” To further grasp what the future holds for Europe, especially without America’s embrace, [gain full digital access]( to all insights in our latest print magazine, “[Europe Alone](,” for as little as $20.   Where complex issues get the clarity they deserve. [Expand your geopolitical knowledge with FP.](   [FP Live]( [Decoding Trump’s Foreign-Policy Plans]( July 30 | 11 a.m. ET If Republican nominee Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States, how will he design his foreign policy? Where will his administration shift its attention? Elbridge Colby, a Pentagon official under former President Trump, will join FP Live to discuss. [Register now](. [The View From Singapore]( On DemandFew countries in the world are as adept at interpreting China’s foreign policy as Singapore. The small but wealthy city-state is a frequent host for sensitive conversations between Washington and Beijing. At this year’s Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, FP’s Ravi Agrawal sat down with Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen to discuss the U.S.-China relationship and American soft power in Southeast Asia in light of wars in Europe and the Middle East. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [Is Canada Free-Riding on Defense?]( On DemandWhile most NATO members are upping their defense spending to a minimum of 2 percent of their respective GDPs, Canada is increasingly seen as lagging behind. Can Canada up its contributions? And how is it thinking about security to its north, especially as climate change melts new passages into the Arctic ice and opens new routes for Russian aggression? On the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington, FP’s Ravi Agrawal put these and other questions to Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair. [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [How Platon Photographs Power]( On Demand July 24 Whether you know it or not, you’ve seen the work of portrait photographer Platon. Gracing magazine covers and protest signs, his photos of world leaders and cultural icons capture the truth behind the cliche that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Platon will sit down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal to describe what drives his art and how he connects with his subjects, no matter how powerful they may be. This video will be accessible on-demand to all on July 24.   Exercise Your Mind South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples were eligible to receive what benefit on Thursday? A. Legal recognition of civil unions B. Spousal health insurance coverage C. Tax breaks allowed to married couples D. Permission to adopt children You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   FP GUIDE TO GRADUATE EDUCATION [Defining Features That Shape Graduate Programs]( Selecting which graduate school to attend is an important step to help professionals build a meaningful career in international relations. Access the latest version of FP’s sponsored grad guide, through which you can learn directly from top-tier graduate programs about course offerings, interdisciplinary approaches, experiential learning, and external partnerships to find a program that aligns with your career goals. [LEARN MORE](   [And now a word from a subscriber...]( “It has been a pleasure to support the voices found here within this magazine. I have found engaging, educating, caring and intelligent persons within this magazine discussing topics I enjoy knowing more about.” See what's in store for yourself. [Unlock insights]( from a myriad of writers and geopolitical experts for as little as $20 today.   Most Popular [A woman stands at a pond near the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project site in Esmeralda County, Nevada, on Feb. 22. ]( [The Hidden Trade-Offs of Climate Policy]( Today’s green dogmas cannot deliver an energy transition that is fast, just, and sustainable—all at the same time. By Seaver Wang, Ted Nordhaus [The wind blows a plastic bag past the National Stadium, also known as the Bird's Nest, in Beijing on Jan. 23, 2008. ]( [The Olympics Have a Dirty History—Literally]( But a green sports movement is pushing for change, eager to see if Paris will be different. 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By Madeleine Orr [Into the Minds of China’s Military AI Experts](Beijing faces challenges in deploying new technology. By Sam Bresnick [Global Tech Outage Wreaks Havoc](The disruption underscores just how reliant much of the world is on key software providers. By Christina Lu   From Around FP - Combating lung cancer: Lung cancer accounts for almost one-fifth of all cancer deaths globally, and 60 percent of them occurred in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022. Explore targeted interventions, investments, and policies—that could not only save millions of lives, but improve livelihoods and spur economic development—in FP Analytics’ [new Special Report](, produced with support from Roche Asia Pacific. - Insights to your inbox: Foreign Policy brings international headlines into sharper focus beyond daily reports and analysis. Explore our diverse range of free newsletters, from a closer look at developments in [Latin America]( to the latest on [national security](, and get succinct, informative, and timely insights in your inbox today. - From the Oslo Freedom Forum: Explore a [special four-part podcast series]( by the Human Rights Foundation, produced by FP Studios, about activists, dissidents, leading thinkers, and innovators and their fight for freedom and democracy. Listen to Reclaim Democracy: Stories From the Oslo Freedom Forum on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you enjoy your podcasts.   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: B. Spousal health insurance coverage. Protecting and expanding LGBTQ+ rights around the world—including at home—is essential to a strong U.S. foreign policy, Jessica Stern and Suzanne B. Goldberg [argue](. 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