Morning Distribution for Monday, October 31, 2022

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Monday, October 31, 2022 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [Abrams’ Rally in Dallas]( [What Happened To Stacey Abrams?]( By [Alex Samuels]( Four years ago, Stacey Abrams had the world at her feet. Yes, she had just lost Georgia’s gubernatorial race to Gov. Brian Kemp by [fewer than 60,000 votes]( — but after such an unexpectedly tight contest, she was [heralded by the Democratic Party]( as [a promising new leader](. There was [speculation about whether she’d be chosen]( as Joe Biden’s running mate during his 2020 bid for the presidency ([a prospect Abrams welcomed]( and she was [largely credited]( for [pioneering a new playbook]( focused on turning out Black voters in Georgia, especially after Biden flipped the state in 2020. Though Biden eventually tapped then-Sen. Kamala Harris of California to share the ticket, Abrams kept her eyes on the governor’s mansion. But she enters this year’s race as even more of an underdog [than she was in 2018](. Most recent surveys of the race consistently show Abrams, a former minority leader in Georgia’s state House, trailing Kemp by single digits, according to [FiveThirtyEight’s polling average]( as of this past Friday at 12 p.m. Eastern. (All data in this article is as of this date and time.) An October poll from [Data for Progress](, though, found that the Republican held a lead of 10 percentage points over Abrams — 3 points more than when [the firm last polled the race](, in September. And while Abrams had stronger support among Democrats than Kemp did with Republicans, according to a September [Monmouth University]( survey, the pollsters also concluded that Abrams’ path to victory this year was “much narrower.” Abram’s campaign is also [attracting a lot less buzz]( this year compared with the frenetic excitement of her candidacy in 2018. That stands out because [there’s a significant gap]( between Abrams’ polling against Kemp versus that of Sen. Raphael Warnock, another Democrat on the ballot, who is running for reelection against Republican Herschel Walker. According to our database, no recent nonpartisan polls give Walker a lead. Most nonpartisan surveys, especially those fielded following [Walker’s abortion controversy]( have given Warnock a single-digit edge. In fact, [FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average]( is almost 2 points in Warnock’s favor. [FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast]( of the election, meanwhile, has assessed the race as a toss-up. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.