FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, April 15, 2018 [1. Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Are Looking Stronger]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [2. LeBron James Is The New Steph Curry]( It’s well-known what LeBron James can do at the rim. His size, strength and ability to absorb contact make him arguably the best scorer at the game's shortest shots. But this season, he’s establishing himself as the best at the game’s longest shots, too. [Read more]( [3. The NBA Playoffs’ Sleepers, Favorites And Best First-Round Matchups]( At long last, it’s time to put regular-season basketball in the rearview mirror and move on to the NBA’s main event -- the playoffs are finally here! And FiveThirtyEight is here, too, to help predict how it’ll all go down. With the help of our CARM-Elo projection model, and the betting odds as a second opinion, what follows is our survey of both the Eastern and Western Conference postseason landscapes. And in a departure from last season, when the Warriors were near-universal favorites on the eve of the playoffs, there’s actually some uncertainty in the playoff outlook this time around. [Read more]( [4. Paul Ryan Gave Up One Of The Most Powerful Jobs In Politics. It Totally Makes Sense.]( The news on Wednesday that House Speaker Paul Ryan won’t run for another term wasn’t shocking -- it has been rumored for months. It’s also, weirdly, not shocking that Ryan is voluntarily giving up one of the most powerful jobs in politics. That kind of thing should be surprising. But he had several reasons for wanting out of the speakership in the era of President Trump and the House Freedom Caucus that make the decision seem almost expected. [Read more]( [5. What Would Happen If Trump Fired Mueller? Or Rosenstein? Or Sessions?]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [6. Paul Ryan’s Retirement Makes His District — And The Whole House — More Competitive]( The rumors were true: House Speaker Paul Ryan is retiring from Congress. One of the most powerful political jobs in the United States will change hands next year, which will surely have a major effect on how the country is governed, but we’re here to discuss something slightly less weighty: the effect Ryan’s departure will have on his district -- and the House of Representatives -- this November. [Read more]( [7. Has Trump Made The Working Class Great Again? Not If You’re Black Or Female.]( President Trump seems ready to declare victory in his effort to make America great again; last month, he said the slogan for his 2020 re-election campaign will be “Keep America Great.” But how much has really changed, particularly for the “everyday, working Americans” whom Trump said were the “backbone and heartbeat of our country” -- and whose votes helped him secure the presidency? [Read more]( [8. Here’s What Will Decide The Thunder-Jazz Series]( The Western Conference playoff matchup between the fourth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and fifth-seeded Utah Jazz is the embodiment of a Super Mario Bros. mystery block: No one really knows what to expect. And either of these hard-nosed defensive clubs could put a scare into the dominant Houston Rockets, who figure to be waiting for the winner of this best-of-seven series in the next round. [Read more]( [9. How The Timberwolves Broke Their 14-Year Playoff Drought]( The Timberwolves hadn't been to the playoffs since 2004. Until this year. [Read more]( [10. Shohei Ohtani’s Splitter Is What Makes Him Truly Great]( Just a little more than a week into his major league career, Los Angeles Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani has been so impressive as both a pitcher and hitter that it’s difficult to decide which aspect of his play stands out most. At the plate, he belted home runs in three consecutive games, crushing one pitch Friday for the seventh-longest homer of the young 2018 season. As a pitcher, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning of his start Sunday, finishing the game with 12 strikeouts -- tied for the most of any starter in a game so far this year. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Are The Toronto Raptors The True No. 1 Team In The East?]( Lastly, The Riddler Edited by Oliver Roeder From Witold Wdziekonski, shuffle up and deal: You are playing a standard game of Texas Hold ’em, in which you start with two cards. Five community cards will be dealt, and the object is to make the best five-card hand out of the seven cards available to you. However, you’re a perfectionist, and you’re only interested in making the best possible hand once the board has been dealt — such a hand is called the “[nuts](.” Which two-card starting hand is the most likely to make the nuts once the board has been dealt? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ESPN]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 147 Columbus Avenue, New York, NY 10023.