FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, April 12, 2018 [1. Paul Ryan Gave Up One Of The Most Powerful Jobs In Politics. It Totally Makes Sense.]( [Paul Ryan]( The news on Wednesday that House Speaker Paul Ryan won’t run for another term wasn’t shocking -- it has been rumored for months. It’s also, weirdly, not shocking that Ryan is voluntarily giving up one of the most powerful jobs in politics. That kind of thing should be surprising. But he had several reasons for wanting out of the speakership in the era of President Trump and the House Freedom Caucus that make the decision seem almost expected. [Read more]( [2. What Would Happen If Trump Fired Mueller? Or Rosenstein? Or Sessions?]( [0411-Chat 4×3 ALT]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [3. Paul Ryan’s Retirement Makes His District — And The Whole House — More Competitive]( [Congress Holds Gold Medal Ceremony To Honor Office Of Strategic Services]( The rumors were true: House Speaker Paul Ryan is retiring from Congress. One of the most powerful political jobs in the United States will change hands next year, which will surely have a major effect on how the country is governed, but we’re here to discuss something slightly less weighty: the effect Ryan’s departure will have on his district -- and the House of Representatives -- this November. [Read more]( [4. The Moscow Midterms]( [BigHack-StandardArt4x3]( The first Americans to line up to vote on Nov. 6, 2018, will be the East Coast’s earliest risers. As early as 5 a.m. EST, rubbing the sleep from their eyes and clutching travel thermoses of coffee, they will start the procession of perhaps 90 million Americans to vote that day. The last to cast ballots will be Hawaiians, who will do so until 11 p.m. East Coast time. When all is said and done, the federal election will unfold something like an 18-hour-long ballet of democracy: 50 states, dozens of different kinds of voting machines and an expectation that everything should be counted up in time for TV networks to broadcast the results before Americans head to bed. Election Day 2018 is expected to unfold no differently than it has in years past. [Read more]( [5. Where Blue-Collar America Is Strongest]( [horowitz-bluecollar-3×4]( President Trump seems ready to declare victory in his effort to make America great again; last month, he said the slogan for his 2020 re-election campaign will be “Keep America Great.” But how much has really changed, particularly for the “everyday, working Americans” whom Trump said were the “backbone and heartbeat of our country” -- and whose votes helped him secure the presidency? [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts How popular is Donald Trump? [How popular is Donald Trump?]( [See all polls]( Who is winning the race for congress? [Who is winning the race for congress?]( [See all polls]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Emergency Politics Podcast: Paul Ryan Is Moving On And So Is His Party]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ESPN]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 147 Columbus Avenue, New York, NY 10023.