FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, October, 24, 2024 [1. Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate]( [Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate]( As a [ridiculously close election]( enters its final stretch, the balance of power in the U.S. looks totally up for grabs. In 538’s [forecast of the presidential race]( Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a pure toss-up race. The U.S. House, too, [turns on a knife’s edge](. Yet the outcome in the U.S. Senate is not nearly as suspenseful. [Read more]( [2. What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?]( [What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?]( In the United States, we elect our president and vice president using the Electoral College rather than the national popular vote. To win, a party’s ticket must win the most votes in enough states to attain an outright majority of electoral votes — at least 270 votes out of a total of 538 (sound familiar?). [Read more]( [3. Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up]( [Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up]( The [closest election of the century]( keeps getting closer. Two weeks ago, [538's forecast of the presidential election]( gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away from Election Day — our forecast gives Trump the bare advantage in the race with a 52-in-100 chance to win.* [Read more]( [4. Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?]( [Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?]( The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, [Georgia]( [Michigan]( [Nevada]( [North Carolina]( Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the outsized importance of these states, it's worth taking a closer look at the data we have in each of them — not just where the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands today, but also each candidate's path to victory and what issues could tip the election. Next up in our series is the state that decided the 2020 election: Wisconsin. [Read more]( [5. Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles]( [Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles]( On the campaign trail this election cycle, former President Donald Trump [has indulged in a singular rant about electric boats and sharks](. The story goes that a boat manufacturer complained to him about electric boats, and Trump wondered what would happen if the boat sank under the weight of the electric battery — Would passengers be electrocuted? What if there was a shark nearby, and they had to choose how to die? “I will take electrocution every single time,” he’s said, hinting at a long-held [fear of sharks](. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](