FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, October, 03, 2024 [1. Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election]( [Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election]( The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, [Nevada]( [North Carolina]( Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the outsized importance of these states, it's worth taking a closer look at the data we have in each of them — not just where the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands today, but also each candidate's path to victory and what issues could tip the election. Third in our series is the Great Lakes State, Michigan. [Read more]( [2. What early polls say about who won the VP debate]( [What early polls say about who won the VP debate]( On Tuesday night, Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz squared off in the 2024 vice presidential debate — which will also likely be the final debate of the entire presidential election. Given that, perhaps both parties were hoping even more than usual for their candidate to score a clear win — something that could give their side some momentum heading into the final five weeks of the campaign. [Read more]( [3. The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state]( [The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state]( In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House [appears very close](. Tellingly, [538’s latest presidential election forecast]( Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations, making it practically a coin-flip race. To that point, the most critical swing states are all on a knife’s edge in the polls: Based on our latest state polling averages, Harris leads by around 1 to 2 points in [Michigan]( [Nevada]( [Pennsylvania]( and [Wisconsin]( Trump holds roughly a 1-point edge in [Arizona]( and [Georgia]( while [North Carolina]( is essentially tied. [Read more]( [4. Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years]( [Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years]( The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, [North Carolina]( Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the outsized importance of these states, it's worth taking a closer look at the data we have in each of them — not just where the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands today, but also each candidate's path to victory and what issues could tip the election. Second up: the Silver State, Nevada, which is part of an [increasingly purple swath in the Southwest](. [Read more]( [5. How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( [How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( For 2024, 538 has built a [new presidential election forecast model](. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. This has been updated since June. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](