FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, September, 26, 2024 [1. What polling says about key 2024 Senate races]( [What polling says about key 2024 Senate races]( When it comes to the 2024 election, the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump naturally sucks up a lot of oxygen. But plenty of other important races are on the ballot this November, including some closely fought elections that will determine control of the U.S. Senate — and thus influence whether one party could hold all the levers of power in Washington. With Democrats holding a 51-to-49 edge in the Senate (counting the four independents who caucus with them), the contest for Congress's upper chamber looks to be on a knife's edge. [Read more]( [2. This could be the closest presidential election since 1876]( [This could be the closest presidential election since 1876]( According to 538's [latest election forecast]( Vice President Kamala Harris has a 57-in-100 chance of winning the presidential election in November, while former President Donald Trump has a 42-in-100 chance. That means the race is essentially a toss-up; based on the closeness of the polls and the equivocacy of non-polling factors we call the "[fundamentals]( either candidate could easily win in November, and perhaps by a somewhat sizable margin if the polls significantly miss the mark ([again](. [Read more]( [3. How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024]( [How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024]( UPDATE (Sept. 20, 2024, 10:15 a.m. Eastern): After CNN published a story on Thursday afternoon about [racist and salacious online messages]( allegedly posted by Republican Lt. Gov Mark Robinson, Robinson [declined to drop out]( of the North Carolina governor's race. Read more about polling in the gubernatorial and presidential races in the Tar Heel State below. [Read more]( [4. Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?]( [Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?]( This is former President Donald Trump’s third go-around as the Republican nominee for president, and Americans are pretty sure how they feel about him at this point. He is a controversial figure because of his history of racist rhetoric, divisive politics, failure to accept the results of the 2020 election and ongoing legal problems. At the same time, his solid Republican base reveres him for his willingness to fight for their values, and many voters still give him high marks for an economy they felt was better under his tenure. As a result, the presidential race between him and Vice President Kamala Harris is [extremely close overall](. [Read more]( [5. What are the best pollsters in America?]( [What are the best pollsters in America?]( With former President Donald Trump’s recent Republican presidential primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, we can now say [with near certainty]( that the 2024 general election will feature a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor. Both the stakes of the election and the odds of the outcome are of great importance, and people will be paying them a lot of attention over the next 10 months. And if social media conversations and news coverage about the primary are any indication, public opinion polls will feature very heavily in the discourse about the general election. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](