FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, September, 12, 2024 [1. Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate]( [Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate]( On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for their first, and potentially only, presidential debate, with each candidate hoping to gain a crucial advantage over the other in a [very close race](. And based on early reviews from the American public, it seems like Harris came out on top. [Read more]( [2. What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate]( [What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate]( The June 27 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was arguably one of the most consequential in modern history, catalyzing Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, less than a month later. The contest has [completely changed since then]( with Vice President Kamala Harris ascending to the top of the ticket and surpassing Trump in the polls, signaling that she may be overcoming some of the deficits that voters saw in Biden's campaign. [Read more]( [3. Yes, party conventions matter]( [Yes, party conventions matter]( It's a presidential election year, which means the party conventions are a fixture on the summer schedules of every political pundit and reporter. [Read more]( [4. 6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware]( [6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware]( Much of the political world is understandably focused on tonight's presidential debate, but today also marks this year's final day of party primaries for downballot offices before the Nov. 5 general election. Voters in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island head to the polls to select their nominees for many offices, including the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and governor. [Read more]( [5. How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump]( [How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump]( On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party's nomination to be its 2024 candidate for president. The following day, we turned on [our election forecast]( for the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](