FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, June, 27, 2024 [1. Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think]( [Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think]( The theme of American politics over the last decade is polarization: Specifically, we've seen a lot of it. Some pundits have bemoaned the disappearance of swing voters, for example, and the rule of "negative partisanship" over rationality. As The New York Times [asked]( this February: "Are There Any Persuadable Voters Left?" [Read more]( [2. Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?]( [Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?]( On Thursday night in Atlanta, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off in the earliest presidential general-election debate in modern history — and with the race between them a [pure toss-up]( the stakes are high. The minute the cameras turn off, you’re sure to hear partisans and pundits alike anointing a “winner” and “loser” based on their judgment of each candidate’s performance. [Read more]( [3. Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate]( [Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate]( The clock struck midnight on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s window to qualify for CNN's June 27 general election debate, and the network [formally announced]( that he won't make the stage. That hour on Thursday marked the deadline to meet CNN's [qualification requirements]( which included being constitutionally eligible to become president, having at least four qualifying national polls with at least 15 percent support that meet CNN's guidelines and having confirmed ballot access in enough states to potentially win a majority in the Electoral College (270 electoral votes). Kennedy ultimately came up short on both polls and ballot access in his bid to get a spot on the debate stage alongside President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. [Read more]( [4. How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( [How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( For 2024, 538 built a [new presidential election forecast model]( from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](