FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, June, 13, 2024 [1. Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast]( [Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast]( Today 538 published our [official forecast for the 2024 presidential election](. The model builds on our [general election polling averages]( by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November. At least once per day, we'll rerun our simulations of the election with the latest data, so [bookmark our interactive]( and check back often. [Read more]( [2. How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( [How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works]( For 2024, 538 built a [new presidential election forecast model]( from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. [Read more]( [3. Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election]( [Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election]( The 2024 presidential campaign is starting to feel more like a season of "Law & Order." On Tuesday — not two weeks after former President Donald Trump was [convicted of falsifying business records]( — President Joe Biden's 54-year-old son Hunter was [convicted of illegally purchasing a firearm]( by not disclosing his drug use on a federal form. But while Trump's conviction appears to have cost him a small amount of support in [early post-verdict polling]( don't count on Hunter Biden's conviction to have the same effect on his father. [Read more]( [4. Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind]( [Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind]( Today, Democratic women make up 41 percent and Republican women make up just 15 percent of their respective parties' members of Congress. And of the 12 female governors currently serving, eight are Democrats. That discrepancy is due in part to what happens in the parties' respective primaries, where interest groups and candidates spar over the direction of their parties and just which candidates should represent them. While this year's primaries are far from over, we wanted to check in on how women have done in the first 17 states to hold primary elections for some mid-cycle clues as to whether Democratic and Republican women are maintaining the progress they've made in recent election years. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](